저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 미국은 이미 경기침체에 진입했으며 2016년 중 침체가 더 심화될 것이라는 비관론. 경기침체 시점과 원인: 연준의 장기간 저금리·양적완화를 '통화 헤로인'에 비유하며, 그 인위적 호황의 금단현상으로 2015년 말부터 침체가 시작됐다고 주장. 정부는 보통 침체가 거의 끝난 뒤에야 인정한다고 봄. 고용 지표 비판: 1월 고용 수정치 17.2만명, 2월 24.2만명 증가를 인정하지 않음. 증가분 대부분이 저임금 서비스업 시간제 일자리(약 88%)이고, 고임금 정규직 제조업 일자리는 감소했다고 주장. 해당 지표를 '픽션'으로 규정. 소비·심리 지표: 호텔 재고/판매 비율이 2009년 3월 이후 최고, 소비자신용 급감, 중소기업 낙관지수 2년 최저치를 근거로 제시. 실업수당·해고: 현재 실업수당 청구는 사상 최저 수준이나, 기업은 침체가 오면 뒤늦게 해고하므로 올해 실업률이 상승할 것이라 전망. 2016년 초 발표된 해고 계획은 전년 대비 20% 증가. 임금·근로시간: 1월 임금 상승률(5%)은 다수 주의 최저임금 인상에 따른 일회성 효과로 설명. 2월 시간당 임금 -0.1%, 주간 근로소득 -0.7%(통계 이래 최대 하락), 근로시간 감소를 근거로 제시. 이 흐름이 도널드 트럼프·버니 샌더스 지지층(분노한 백인 남성 등)과 연결된다고 봄. 소득·자산: 현 회복기 동안 대다수 미국인의 소득과 순자산이 회복 시작 시점보다 낮아졌다고 주장. 향후 전망: 2015년 말 시작된 침체가 2016년 내내 지속되며 2007~2008년 침체보다 더 클 수 있다고 전망. 차기 대통령(트럼프 또는 힐러리)은 오바마가 물려받은 것보다 더 큰 침체를 인계받을 것이라고 주장. 투자 관련 구체적 종목·지수 가격 예측은 언급되지 않음.
다듬은 글
welcome back to the show to get his take on the state of the US economy Peter Schiff is with us Peter is the CEO of euro pacific capital also the host of the Peter Schiff show we've talked to a lot of people recently on the show who believe the u.s. is headed towards a recession in the near future but Peter is one of the few people who thinks we are already there we are already in a recession assuming that's true i first asked him when it started and what triggered it here's what he had to say well I think what triggered it was what caused the artificial boom in the first place know you had a former fed fomc member Fisher on television earlier today admitting that the Fed injected the markets and the economy with heroin and cocaine I mean these are not good things the fact that the Fed acknowledges that that's what they used I mean I was calling it monetary heroin in the beginning because I knew that the hangover would be horrific and that's exactly where we are now the Fed has tried to take away the monetary heroin and now there is withdrawal and we're in recession and I think it officially began last year although the government hasn't acknowledged this yet which is generally the way it is usually the government doesn't admit you're in a recession until it's almost over yeah I wanted to ask you about that why is that why is it that we can't determine that we're in a recession in current time or can we determine it but we're just not acknowledging it well because a lot of the statistics are compiled by people that have a bias and so a lot of the numbers reflect the bias that exists that the economy is growing it isn't until hindsight that they can go back and correct the errors that resulted from their own bias and even if let's say the Fed believes that there's a recession the last thing they want to do is admit it because they're hoping to talk the economy out of it they're hoping to create a bunch of false optimism and maybe we'll the recession away and so once it's too late eventually they go back and admit what they should have acknowledged but they were too afraid to earlier something tells me it's going to be hard to talk their ways out of this one talk about the jobs report because it certainly looked strong in comparison to what we saw in January after January's initial report of 151 thousand jobs added economist began getting a little nervous and started raising their estimates of the risk for a recession but now we have a revision on january to one hundred and seventy two thousand jobs plus we have the 242,000 that were added in February can we be in a recession and be adding an average of two hundred thousand jobs every month well absolutely when all you're adding is part time jobs eighty-eight percent of those jobs were part time jobs full-time jobs are being lost especially the higher paying ones in manufacturing we lost I think 16 thousand of those last month eighty percent of these jobs that we created not only are they part time but they're low wage a lot of them are minimum wage they're all in the service sector and so this is why we're in recession because people are losing their good full-time high-paying jobs and they're replacing them with low-paying part-time jobs that's why there's a recession look at the number that came out earlier today on hotel inventories they're exploding the inventory to sales ratio is now the highest it's been since march of 2009 when we were in the Great Recession if we're creating all these jobs why don't people have the purchasing power to go out and spend in fact looking consumer credit that collapsed that we got those numbers yesterday and also we found out that small business optimism just hit a new two-year low so if they're hiring all these people why are they so pessimistic so the reality is the jobs number was not strong that's just the fiction that President Obama wants to peddle well every time we've had a recession jobless claims have soared and now they're down in fact they're at record lows if the economy is contracting why aren't we seeing it in jobless claims but we will I mean normally the jobless claims move up as they're as the recession matures so in the early stages of the recession you can have low unemployment but that is going to change look at the announced layoffs already for the first two months of this year these are twenty percent ahead of where we were last year but if you look at corporate earnings under pressure look at retail sales collapsing jobs are going to be the final a thing to break I mean normally employers don't lay people off because they think a recession is coming when they get surprised by a recession that's when they start the layoffs so I think the layoffs are going to come they're going to come this year and you know there's only so many part-time workers that American businesses are going to be able to hire they're going to start laying them off sometime during this year so you're going to start to see the unemployment rate move up but by then of course we're going to be knee-deep in this recession maybe even neck-deep sounds like it's going to be quite a problem for the next person at the helm of the country the next president wages certainly weren't good for the month they fell by 1% you say that reflects true weakness in the economy but if that's the case how do we explain January's very strong wage data point five percent growth just a month earlier was that just a 10 that's because yeah well that's easy to explain because a lot of states about a dozen states had big increases in their minimum wage that went into effect January first and since so many Americans now work for the minimum wage including heads of households and college graduates that had a one-off effect but you know not only did wages drop one tenth of one percent last month which is the first drop in a couple of years in fact it's only had six drops in the last 10 years but if you look at hours worked which actually declined if you look at weekly earnings they actually plunge by point seven that is the biggest drop in weekly earnings since the government started keeping statistics and I have no idea when that was but it was probably before I was born yeah I mean I was just going to ask you about that ours works going from 34.6 to 34.4 most people would look at that and say hmm doesn't really sound like that big of a drop talk to me a little bit more of an explain a little bit more about where that's really coming from well it's good it's coming for more people working part time instead of working full-time or having their hours cut back that's what's going on and you know this is why you've got the popularity of Donald Trump or Bernie Sanders it's all the people that used to have full-time jobs that have now left the labor force or have a lousy part-time job they are going to these rallies for Sanders or Trump and you know this is it's it's the angry white guy white males these are the ones that have had their jobs decimated during this so-called recovery for a lot of people this recovery has been worse than the recession that preceded it in fact most Americans today are poorer they have lower incomes and less of a net worth than when this recovery started and of course since I'm saying that we're already in recession if people thought that recovery was bad wait till they see how bad this recession is because our recovery was worse than most recessions so you think that this recession would be worse than what we saw in 2007-2008 yes I do i think this recession which started late last year is going to continue throughout this year whoever succeeds obama as president whether it's Trump or Hillary Clinton is going to inherit an even bigger recession than the one Obama inherited from bush
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