저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 피터 시프는 달러 약세와 금 강세, 그리고 달러의 장기 하락을 전망한다. 달러 흐름: 달러는 올해 몇 포인트 약세이며 미국 경제 성장 속도에 대한 의구심이 반영돼 있다. 고용 공고 수 기록은 일시적 반등일 뿐이며, 버락 오바마 행정부 시기와 같은 저임금·시간제 중심의 공석 많은 고용 구조라고 본다. 금 전망: 금은 지정학적 긴장보다 인플레이션 요인 때문에 다시 주목받을 것이라 보며, 중앙은행이 제로금리에 묶여 양적완화를 계속하면 법정화폐 구매력이 떨어진다고 주장한다. 다만 올해 금 가격은 다른 통화 대비로는 거의 횡보했다. 금의 신규 용도: 에든버러 대학 연구에서 귀금속이 폐암 치료제 효과를 높일 수 있다는 소식이 나왔으나, 가격에 미친 영향은 거의 없었다. 새로운 용도가 많을수록 수요가 늘어난다고 보지만 필요량은 미미할 것이다. 금 차익실현: 긍정적 고용 보고서 이후 금이 7주 고점에서 밀린 것은 일부 트레이더의 달러 숏 차익실현으로 이해할 만하다고 봤다. 연준 금리: 금리 인상은 이미 달러 상승을 멈추게 했으며, 달러는 연준이 긴축을 멈추고 다시 완화에 나서는 시점에 크게 하락할 것이라 전망한다. 연준이 금리를 인하하거나 양적완화 4차를 해야 할 때 달러가 본격적으로 밀린다는 주장이다. 출연자 전망: 달러는 연준 완화 전환 이후 장기적으로 크게 하락할 것이라는 입장이다.
다듬은 글
well the dollar just can't win right now it's still soft down a few points the past month and highlighting doubts about the pace of economic growth in the US meanwhile gold has been scoring because of the uncertainty and now there might be a new use for the precious metal joining me now Peter Schiff CEO of euro pacific capital peter the dollars week the gold get to rise from that what role does heightened geopolitical tensions play in all of this we have the conflict between the u.s.
and North Korea the US and Russia what role does the play well it should play a larger role that it has been playing you know even though the dollar is down this year you know it got a bit of a jolt today from a record number of job openings but I mean this is what we've been having during the Obama administration most of these jobs go unfilled Americans lack the skills and a lot of them are low paying in part time but given the fact that the dollar has been so weak this year the price of gold has actually not strengthened very much I mean it's gone up in dollars but in many of the other currencies against which the dollar has been falling the price of gold has been very flat and at some point though I do expect people to embrace gold not necessarily because of the geopolitical aspects but because of the inflationary aspect because people realize that these fiat currencies are going to lose a lot of purchasing power that a lot of central banks are stuck at the zero bound and even if they raise interest rates slightly they're going to lower them back down and they keep doing quantitative easing so I think people will be drawn back to gold for the monetary monetary properties it has had for centuries well there might be good news for gold to the researchers at the University of Edinburgh found precious metals could be used to make certain lung cancer drug more effective what is the prospect of finding another use for gold due to the commodity yeah you know there are a lot of uses for gold surprisingly so many people think there are none but you know they have been using gold in medicine for a while and the fact that they can find new cures that might involve bits of gold I mean it's just another reason that gold works as money because it has so much intrinsic value it has properties that other metals don't have and so it has a lot of uses separate and apart from its being a store of value or a medium of exchange so that's something that all these crypto currencies don't have and all the people that think that they're viable money cannot differentiate between these crypto currencies in gold because for some reason they think they think gold has no value either how do investors typically react when something like this happens when you find a new use for gold I know it's early but but typically how would they react well it all depends on how much gold would be required in this process I mean you're talking about small amounts of gold I'm not sure exactly how many people would need this particular cure so on the margin how much additional real-world demand would be created for gold based on this use I have no idea I mean obviously the price of gold barely moved today so this particular news story didn't have much effect on it but overall on maryland's you know the more uses that can be discovered for gold the more demand there will be I mean normally gold is so valuable and so expensive that they end up substituting less expensive metals even if gold would be better but there may be some circumstances where you absolutely have to have gold and therefore the price is no object you have to pay whatever the cost is well gold fell from a seven-week high after you mentioned it earlier the positive jobs report last week do you think that the selling was a little premature and to follow that how do you think the market is going to react when the Fed raises interest rates later this year well I I don't think it's odd that some of the traders took profits on their short dollar bets when we got a jobs report that was better than expected but if you look at this jobs report in the context of all the jobs reports that have preceded it these are the same same types of reports that we have been getting for months and years under Obama you know Donald Trump wants to claim that everything is great even though these are virtually identical to the same reports he criticized as being fake but I don't think anything has been changed by that report same thing with the Fed rate hikes you know ever since the Fed started raising rates that's really when the dollar stopped rising now it really didn't start until more recently and I think the dollar is going to continue to fall regardless of whether or not the Fed raises rates one or two more times but ultimately the big move in the dollar is going to come when they have to stop raising rates when they have to admit that they're finished tightening and that they're going to start easing again because that hasn't even been begun to be factored into the dollar wait till the Fed has to cut rates wait till they have to do QE four I mean the dollar is losing ground right now when people expect quantitative tightening they expect the Fed to be shrinking its balance sheet later this year when the markets are surprised by the Fed having to admit that the balance sheet is going to grow even larger instead I think it's a long way down for the dollar Peter Schiff CEO of euro pacific capital always a pleasure having you on thank you so much sure
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