저자: PeterLynch · 외국인
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결론: 시장 방향과 금리·경기 예측은 불가능하므로 예측에 의존하지 말고 기업 실적과 사실(재고, 구리가격, 호텔 점유율, 화물 적재량 등)에 집중하라. 역사적 예시: 1950~80년대 석유 가격, 통화량, LDC 부채, 중동, 일본 등에 대해 전문가들의 비관 예측이 반복적으로 틀렸다. 경기·금리 예측 한계: 1980~1990년대 경기·금리 전망이 매년 빗나갔으며, 경제 공부에 쓰는 시간은 낭비에 가깝다는 견해. 위험한 투자 통념 1: '이미 많이 떨어졌으니 더 안 떨어진다'는 생각은 위험하다(폴라로이드, 카이저 인더스트리 사례 – 29달러에서 1달러 수준까지 하락). 위험한 통념 2: '이미 많이 올랐으니 더 못 오른다'도 위험하다(필립모리스, 홈디포, 토이저러스 사례). 위험한 통념 3: '결국 회복된다'는 말은 항상 맞지 않다(Manville, Western Union 등 회복하지 못한 사례). 손실 관리: 주가가 3달러가 되면 최대 손실은 주식 가치 전부이며, 큰 금액을 저가 주식에 넣는 것의 위험을 강조. 매도 규칙: 본전(예: 10달러)에서 팔겠다는 기준은 주식이 매수자의 보유 사실을 모른다는 점에서 합리적이지 않다. 시장 방향 발언: 향후 1~2년 시장 방향은 모르며, 15~25년 후에는 지금보다 훨씬 높을 것이라는 장기 낙관 견해. 시장 하락 빈도: 96년간 10% 이상 하락 53회, 25% 이상 하락 15회(약 6년에 한 번 베어마켓)이며 이는 반드시 다시 발생한다는 견해. 그러나 발생 시기는 예측하지 않는다. 기업 관점: 기업 가치는 8년, 16년, 30년 뒤 훨씬 높아질 것이라는 장기 관점으로 투자해야 한다.
다듬은 글
Barton Biggs says we are in a bear Market rally do you agree I don't have the freaking idea what rally schmalley this is total now here's something Manny Freeman now he listen Manny Freeman said this morning they're in the fifth inning of the current bull market this is also this is more current huh okay and there's always something to worry about in the 50s it was depression and nuclear war the 50s was the best decade this century the stock market except for the 80s only slightly better days only slightly better people they expect a lot we had an okay it wasn't a great uh decade they just didn't expect much we made it through and the stock market was terrific do you remember when oil went from four to forty remember that period oil went from four to forty and experts said it was gonna go to 100 and all the countries of the world would go bankrupt and then in the big banks no bankrupt and we're gonna have a great depression and the stock markets go down and you're going to wind up selling pencils and apples you know the uh well I'm going to oil one from four to 40 and the experts said it was gonna go to 100.
within two years oil was at 14 the experts now much higher paid at this point are saying it's going to go to four and we have a depression and people believe it again you know the uh I remember when the money supply was going too fast they said we're gonna have a depression that was going too slow we're gonna have a depression remember the LDC debt LDC debt they're all going to go bankrupt and we're gonna have a depression uh then the Mideast was gone the world remember that one the Middle East around the world they weren't going to buy our bonds and the market crashing would have depression then Japan was going on that one Japan was kept all the assets and they were going to buy our bonds and we're gonna have a depression within three years the Nick nikai dial had gone from 40 000 to 16 000 the banking systems in trouble and people said Japan was going to collapse and we're gonna have a depression I mean people on their prayer list the end of the day they had eliminated crippled children Mother Teresa they're praying for Japan I mean you know remember this one it's few talks predict the economy interest rates and stock market I mean people keep trying to do this I mean this would be useful I would love to know in every session I'd love to know when interest rates that go up or down I'd love to know when the stock market's going up that would be helpful I would like to get next year's Wall Street Journal uh unfortunately you don't get it I remember in 1982 we had a lot of people in this room around for 82 we had uh 20 prime rate 15 long governments double-digit unemployment double-digit inflation I don't remember anybody telling me about that 1980.
I remember everybody tell me about that 1981 but 83 I remember they said well the economies would bounce back every session 85. 85 they said we have recession 86. 87 something happened on October 87 I figured what something happened they'll do is uh Celtics lost seven in a row some something bad with 87.
they said for sure every session 88 and they said 89 for sure every session and then 90 we're supposed to have the so-called soft Landing which we never had so I've always said if you spend 13 minutes a year in economics you've wasted 10 minutes and uh the uh and uh all you need to know about the stock market is it goes up and it goes down and it goes down a lot and that's all you need to know again it'd be terrific to know what's going to have the economy but I deal with facts if inventories are going up if copper prices are going down if room occupancy has gone the wrong way people building too many hotels I look at Freight card loading so I own railroad stocks I deal with facts I don't deal with people tell me something's going to happen the future you might as well call the psychic hotline for that stuff to get a better average and uh what I'd like to talk about is what I call the 10 most dangerous things uh people say about stocks uh here's a good one if it's gone down this much already it can't go any lower uh everyone Polaroid went from 140 to about 107.
people said if you ever get Polaroid under 100 got to buy it there's back up the truck buy the stock come on uh stock you get to 110 that rally you know fall 103 you go 112 105 he said gets under 100 bipolar Polaroid broke 100. people start buying it and within nine months the stock was 18. I saw San Diego Avon products so just saying you know it's gone down this far you know how much lower I mean it's crazy but you know it can keep going in fact I tried this out Kaiser Industries I was a new Analyst at fidelity and we're about to buy the biggest block ever at Kaiser Industries the stock had gone from 29 to 17.
we're about to buy the largest block ever in the history of the American Stock Exchange we bought I don't know 10 or 15 million shares at 50 and three quarters I said my God the Stock's gone from 29 to 17 how much lower can it go so we bought this enormous block at 15 and three quarters so I called my mother and I said Mom I guess Kaizen says it's 10 so about three months later said you ought to buy this it's gone from 29 to 10 how much lower can it go well went to nine and went to eight it went to seven it went to six it went to five it went to four unfortunately this happened very rapidly where I'd be working at the Stop and Shop bag and behind the line to the Center for Valley so fortunately this was compressed in only about six months so I had to go to the fun we have to say I was a little bit early on this at 15 and three quarters that uh but it uh we call this premature in the business the uh uh had a correction which you know is a euphemism for losing a lot of money rapidly at the uh so I said let's check this again the Stock's for they own 45 percent of Kaiser Aluminum they own 59 of Kaiser steel they own 38 percent of guys cement they own all of Kaiser Electronics all of Kaiser broadcasting which had seven TV sets they own Jeep they had Kaiser fiberglass I said about Kaiser Santa gravity a bunch of other Kaisers and they had no debt now in this room because I know Freeman buildings is very interested in financial stocks no one's ever gone bankrupt without any debt now that would take a real I think you have to get some kind of distinguished service award if somebody did a but they had no debt I said it's not going to go to zero you know I was wrong when I said it can't go below 15.
so we hung on and within three years they gave out the shares and kind of Steel gave out the shares and kaises men gave out the shares and Kaiser steel and aluminum and they sold off all the businesses you got 55 a share but if you didn't know the story and the stock went from 1511 and you're just saying how much low can it go when it went to 918 you would have gone so you can't just say you can't go any lower because I saw Taco Bell go from 14 to 1 in 1974 and they had no debt and making 60 cents a share uh there's a cool area to that that's even more dangerous if it's gone this high already how can it possibly go lower uh higher sorry that Philip Morris adjusted for splits uh sold for 12 cents in 1951.
and then it goes to 60 cents in 1961. so it goes up five-fold you say yourself how much this never sold for just for splits to say how much higher can this go it's got a five-fold they missed the power of Marlboro they missed the this 220 countries in the world they missed the cash flow of the company they missed everything this stock was a hundred bagger after going up five-fold but people sold it just saying how much higher can it go can't go any higher they did the same at Home Depot they did the same with Toys R Us I did the same thing Toys R Us just saying it can't go any higher it's gone this much already that's very dangerous and don't don't use that one and uh I it's a very bad thing to do eventually they always come back here's another one that sucks uh that's a technical stock market term we just use only in the stock market the uh RCA just about got back to us 1929 price was backed out by GE uh Manville never came back in the National Harvester even with its name changed and adjusted for split says and got all the way back yet Western Union double knits remember those wonderful things uh floppy disks they don't have to come back but they say eventually they always come back uh not true here's a great one it's three dollars how much can I lose this is a great one because yeah this is I don't have a computer and I can't do high-level math but uh just do this once let's say you buy your neighbor buys ten thousand dollars of a stock at 50.
the Stock's now three and you put twenty five thousand dollars into three if it goes to zero who loses the most a lot of people cannot answer this question you know the uh I mean if you put a billion in a three you can lose a billion yeah I mean they blow Taps and lots of companies every year you know you just have they can go to zero uh I was lucky enough to just have the medals in between start finale I had the textile industry which is a great group to follow because you follow companies like JP Stevens who's founded in the 18th century and uh West Point Pepperell was found in the 18th century Berlin Industries was one of the new companies was founded in 1904 these people have been through recessions depressions were Wars they've seen it all there's a great expression textile industry It's always darkest before pitch black yeah now that's a good one to remember because business is terrible it can get considerably terrible you're terrible to the power of six and uh it uh uh when I rebound to 10 I'll sell uh here's a great rule uh somebody buys a stock at 10.
and it falls to six I see if it gets back and I'll sell now I think the math four and six I can handle this level math I think that's about a 66 return you want to buy if you think it's going back to 10 yard by the hell of a damn thing but they think if it gets back to 10 I'll sell now what you ought to do is never put down a round number because I think the next 26 years to start going between five and nine and a quarter it'll never get to ten so maybe put nine and eight or eight three quarters but just saying the stock if it gets back what I paid for it this is a very important rule this is a very it's one of the key rules the stock doesn't know you own it so I have no idea when the Market's gonna go down and uh no idea when it's going to go up I'm totally shocked the market was four thousand two and a half years ago a while ago it's eight thousand uh I had no idea about this uh very surprising me but I'll guarantee you the Mark will be a lot higher in 15 years it'll be a lot higher than 25 years what it's gonna do next one or two years I don't have any idea and if somebody in this room knows about it they're not telling anybody or they're not in this room they're down in Palm Springs somewhere you know the they made a billion dollars or if they know anything about interest rates there's an interest rates if you can be right five times in a row and ten Grand you can have 2 billion it's not that many people with 2 billion there's a lot of people predicting these traits do you ever think about that one yeah just five times right and wrong ten Grand 2 billion it's uh if you're right sometimes in a row you can have the GMP of you know the United Kingdom you know it's a big number at the uh so I don't worry about that I know we've had uh 96 years a century and the Market's Fallen 53 times I've had 53 declines of 10 or more so 53 declines in 96 years once every two years we have a 10 decline of the 53 declines 15 1-5 have been 25 percent more so 15 and 96 years but once every six years the market Falls 25 more that's what we call a bear Market you know you know that and it's going to happen I don't care when it's gonna happen I would love to know I obviously it would be very useful to know when it's gonna happen it doesn't make difference to me corporate problems will be a lot higher eight years from now a lot higher 16 years now a lot higher 30 years from now that's what I deal with
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