저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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결론: 비트코인은 정부가 전면 금지하기보다 규제가 강화되고 자체 디지털 화폐가 나올 가능성이 크다는 견해다. 정부 규제 가능성: 비트코인이 일부 국가에서 불법화될 수 있다는 점을 언급하며, 볼턴 회고록에 트럼프가 비트코인을 단속하려 했다는 내용이 있다고 소개했다. 다만 미래는 누구도 알 수 없다고 강조했다. 현실적 전망: 전면 금지보다는 규제 강화와 디지털 파운드·디지털 달러·디지털 유로 같은 중앙은행 디지털 화폐 도입이 더 유력하다고 봤다. 중국의 강력한 단속 사례를 들어 정부가 마음먹으면 단속할 수 있다고 말했다. 투자 성격: 비트코인에는 배당이나 이자가 없어 투자라기보다 투기라고 규정했다. 가격이 단기간에 크게 오르거나 내릴 수 있으나 방향을 단정하지 않았다. 송금 수단으로서의 가치는 인정했다. 개인 선택권: 위험을 알고 투자한다면 개인이 비트코인을 사는 권리는 존중해야 한다는 입장이다. 정부 신뢰: 영국 조사를 인용해 간호사·의사·엔지니어는 신뢰도가 높고 정치인은 약 9%만 신뢰한다는 결과를 소개했다. 사람들이 정부와 정치인을 신뢰하지 않아 탈중앙화 화폐를 원하는 흐름을 이해한다고 말했다. 탈중앙화 흐름: 아마존 리뷰처럼 고객끼리 검증하는 방식이 정부 보증보다 신뢰를 준다며, 금융뿐 아니라 전 세계적으로 사적 검증 방식이 늘어날 것으로 전망했다. 결론적 입장: 탈중앙화 흐름은 긍정적으로 보지만, 그것이 곧 비트코인이 투자 자산이라는 뜻은 아니라고 선을 그었다.
다듬은 글
okay everyone so jim rogers says that bitcoin might actually be made illegal by some countries around the world in other words we actually might go to a stage where government should say right we're banning bitcoin in our digital currencies and indeed in john bolton's book we actually found out that trump uh allegedly uh said that he wanted to quote unquote go after uh bitcoin now i don't know the future and nobody knows the future um however one thing i would say is i think it's much more likely governments will just regulate it more and maybe bring out their own digital currencies like a digital pound uh digital usd digital euro didn't completely ban it um although i think what rogers was pointing out is it's a fantasy to say that something can exist in a vacuum i mean for example in china they've really cracked down on bitcoin and the idea that no matter what the regulators uh do the bitcoin will always be somehow anomalous that's obviously not the case if governments really wanted to they could actually crack down on this but a lot of people have asked me has your opinion changed on bitcoin now my opinion has always been that there's nothing wrong with bitcoin as a source of um you know just using it to send money which was the original purpose but it's not really an investment and the reason is quite simple that basically it doesn't have a dividend it doesn't have a coupon uh it's just based on you're just hoping that the person who comes after you will pay more than you paid for it that doesn't mean they won't there's a chance if you buy bitcoins they could go up 10 20 30 in the next day or two or double triple in the next year or go down by hundreds of the next year i'm not saying it's going to go up or down but merely it's a speculation it's not an investment because you're speculating the person that comes after you will pay more than your pay for it but my opinion on that hasn't changed however one thing i do support with bitcoin is i do support people's right to buy it if they want to buy it in other words a lot of people have this kind of big brother mentality that it should all be about i don't know the state regulating what we can buy but at the end of the day if you want to send bitcoin to your friend who am i or who are the regulators who are politicians to tell you otherwise as long as you know the risks involved in buying bitcoin as an investment who is anyone to tell you otherwise and i do completely understand why in the world we live in today well let's face it politicians aren't really trusted at all i saw a study done in the uk where basically nurses were the highest trusted profession i think something like 92 percent of the trusted nurses and doctors and engineers to a certain extent were high up politicians only about nine percent said they trusted them right which is which is terrible so even in the uk and the u.s politicians and the state isn't trusted and even when it comes to black lives matter movement whatever you think about that and the opposite side of that movement many people don't trust the police or the state in general congress uh westminster and so on so we don't trust the state we don't trust politicians as a generalization so i can't understand why people want their own decentralized currency that even if it fails or doesn't fail we can control it but that doesn't make it an investment though that makes it fine for just sending money to person a or person b but it doesn't necessarily make an investment at all but i think what we will see in the coming decades is this move towards more decentralized ways of doing business let's face it why do we like amazon one reason is convenience one reason is price but we can see all the reviews from the customers that is much more reassuring than being told by the state oh we're gonna stamp amazon and say oh amazon is trustworthy we don't want that in in the world we live in today we want to deal with each other we want to have some kind of private due diligence and i think this kind of thing will grow not just in finance but around the world where a lot of people are going to say you know what i don't trust politicians i don't trust the regulators i don't trust the state i trust our people and i think that is great but that doesn't mean that bitcoin is an investment
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