Mohamed El-Erian: Guidelines for Investing During Covid-19

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결론: 코로나19 충격기에는 개인투자자가 패닉 매도나 과잉 반응을 피하고, 감당 못 할 실수가 무엇인지 먼저 정하며 후회 최소화 원칙으로 판단해야 한다. 핵심 주장: 불확실성 속에서는 실수 가능성이 커지므로, 개인은 '내가 어떤 실수는 감당할 수 있는가'보다 '어떤 실수는 절대 감당할 수 없는가'를 먼저 물어야 한다. 대부분의 실수는 회복 가능하다는 점을 2008년 사례로 설명했다. 판단 기준: 위험 감내도, 변동성 허용 범위, 투자 기간을 점검하고 매도 후 반등 놓침과 추가 하락 보호 사이의 트레이드오프를 후회 최소화 관점에서 결정하라고 했다. 이 판단은 개인 단위로만 내릴 수 있다고 강조했다. 시장 상황 언급: 최단기 조정, 뮤추얼펀드 역대급 자금 유출, 투자등급 채권 자금 이탈 등 전례 없는 현상을 언급했다. 종목별 가격 방향 예측은 없다. 리스크: 정보 과잉(시장 정보, 일상 생활 정보, 정책 개입 정보의 세 가지 '소방호스')으로 인해 실행 가능한 단순화가 필요하다고 경고했다. 포트폴리오 관련: 60/40 등 전통적 배분의 기본 원칙은 여전히 유효하다는 취지로 언급했다. 특정 자산 비중 권고는 구체적이지 않다. 출연자 전망: 특정 자산 가격 방향에 대한 1~3개월 예측 발언은 확인되지 않았다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. i want to respect your time dr l aryan i do have one final closing question most of our listeners are individual investors who advisors who diversify their assets widely across asset classes and styles often using index funds and etfs i think that you've already sounded a warning about certain types of index funds in certain segments of the market but more broadly as they think about the structure of their portfolio and how they allocate capital any other parting words of advice or perspectives that you can share about how they might want to think about the way they're positioned knowing that sort of like the traditional sort of stereotypical portfolio might be 60 u.s 40 uh us bonds or perhaps they work some international in there as well so i would say you know a lot of the conventional wisdom in investment remains valid and one of the things that individual investors has to be careful of is the extremes behavioral scientists and behavioral finance people will tell you that when you take investors out of their comfort zone and we are being taken out of our comfort zone in so many ways not just in terms of what we are seeing happen to our investments but also in terms of what we're seeing happen to ourselves the whole range of normal daily life has come to a halt so we are way out of our comfort zone there tends to be two reactions that are particularly pronounced in the financial markets either paralysis or an overreaction and it is critical for the individual investors to understand that it is natural to feel unsettled it is natural to feel uncertain it's the reality we're living in and to fight that tendency to either completely be paralyzed or overreact so you need a few principles to guide you and you need to ask yourself two questions and that critical question one is i know that in this uncertain world that no one can predict the likelihood of mistakes has gone up no one wants to make a mistake but the likelihood of making a mistake has gone up which mistake can at least afford to make because that goes back to my earlier point that most mistakes are recoverable we discovered that in 2008 so the question is which mistake can i not afford to make that question that every investor should be asking themselves when they look at the asset allocation and it speaks to that tolerance for risk the tolerance for volatility and also what is the time span that they think of in terms of their investments so that's the first set of questions that each individual investor has to ask not what will go well for me but which mistakes can i not afford to make once you've answered that question then guide your decision by what i call regret minimization you will face trade-offs you will face trade-offs of do i leave money on the table or do i protect my portfolio do i sell when prices have gone down so much or do i wait till i get a bounce and these questions can only be answered at the individual level but ask yourself the regret minimization if i end up making a mistake which again i don't want to make but if i end up making a mistake which mistake will i regret less i have found having managed other people's money which is a massive responsibility so very very turbulent markets in emerging markets that these two simple guidelines if you like can help navigate and simplify what is an enormous complexity the average person out there to give you a parting image the average person out there is not just trying to drink from one fire hose they are trying to drink from three fire hoses one fire hose is all the information that's bombarding them every day about the market their portfolios and people seeing things i've never seen the fastest correction in history the biggest outflows from mutual funds investment grade something we've never seen it's literally a fire hose of information about markets your portfolio then there's a second firehose which is what's happening to our daily lives can we go out can we interact can i find supplies are we having to internalize this second firehose of information about fundamentals what's going on in the economy and the third fire hose if two weren't enough is policies literally every hour we have a yet another emergency policy intervention is hard enough to drink out of one fire hose it is virtually impossible to drink out of three fire hoses so simplifying things to make them actionable can help a lot and then the time will come to go back to a paradigm when we can actually take in all this information that's around us well this has been wonderful dr l aryan we know how extremely busy you are these days thanks so much for taking the time to share