"You NEED To Hear This NOW..." Cathie Wood Bitcoin Prediction

요약 보기

Cathie Wood는 롤링 리세션이 진행 중이며 소비자 부문이 다음 타깃이라고 주장한다. 장단기 금리차(10년-2년)가 역대급으로 역전돼 통화정책이 생각보다 긴축적이라고 진단하고, 연준이 내년쯤 금리를 인하할 수밖에 없다고 전망한다. 비트코인은 위험자산 성격이 강하며 리세션 시 통화 속도(velocity) 하락 여부가 관건이라고 언급한다. 비트코인 단기 급락 원인 설명은 사회자 발언으로 제외했다.

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01. Bitcoin is a risk on asset and a risk off asset. That's crazy. We don't have too many of those. Uh so, pretty interesting. Uh you can see during recession, so 2000 to 2002, uh velocity drops at an accelerated rate. You saw that again in '08, '09. And you really saw it saw it during COVID. Uh and what's happening now is we're just moving back to trend.

02. Uh and I think trend is at about 1.4, so we have a little uh bit more to go. Um but if we do enter uh a recession, and as you know, we think we've been in a rolling recession uh for roughly 2 years now, uh starting with back-to-back declines in uh real GDP in uh the first half of 2022. Uh and of course, we've seen housing measures drop by up to 40% autos are in in in recessionary

03. territory. Uh we're seeing non-residential construction, especially in the office space area, um in in desperate straits. Uh offset somewhat by um IRA spending, the Inflation Reduction Act spending, uh which is focused more on infrastructure. But nonetheless, rolling recessions. So, we think uh the next the next sector to pull back probably is the consumer.

04. Uh we're already hear hearing from retailers that uh the discounting is picking up in order to attract uh consumers into uh good deals. Uh and we're hearing words like deflation used by a company like Walmart, very interestingly. So, um we'll get back to trend, and then of course the the risk in a consumer downturn

05. is that this velocity measure uh continues down, that it resumes its downtrend. And what would that mean? It it would mean we'd have money negative on a year-over-year basis, and we'll have velocity starting to roll over. So, uh that's how you get a really hard landing unless the Fed pivots and um and money supply picks up uh dramatically.

06. Um so, in an election year, now the Fed is is independent, but uh the Fed tends to stay out of politics and and not make uh moves to favor one party or the other. Uh but we do think it's going to be forced to ease um and by economic statistics that uh will make it overwhelmingly clear, and that's a a word that Larry Summers used today.

07. He advised the Fed not to change policy, not to cut interest rates until there was overwhelming evidence that uh the economy is weakening and inflation uh was coming below the two 2% territory. We think there will be overwhelming evidence, and uh that will happen next year. Hey, crypto architects. If you've been navigating the Bitcoin roller coaster, you're in for a wild ride.

08. Strap in. Hit that thumbs up button, and let's dive into the fascinating world of why Bitcoin's dancing below $42,000. It's a financial party you don't want to miss. Just last week, Bitcoin threw a crypto bash, soaring to a dazzling $44,000 high that had everyone shouting to the moon. But hold on tight because in less than 24 hours, we witnessed a 6% nose dive, going from a high-speed rally to a sudden plunge.

09. The market's puzzled, and the big question is, why the sudden dip? Over $4,000,000 in Bitcoin got liquidated, and Ethereum joined the party with an $80,000,000 liquidation spree. That's a whopping $300,000,000 crypto clearance sale. In just one day, Ethereum, BNB, Ripple, Solana, and Cardano are all feeling the crypto blues.

10. So, why is Bitcoin on this roller coaster today? Why the sudden brakes? Traders are side-dying the Fed, concerned they won't cut interest rates in 2024. Speculation swirl that the party of price hikes might be over. Last week's Bitcoin surge was fueled by dreams of a spot Bitcoin ETF approval in 2024 and whispers of the Fed lowering interest rates.

11. But now, fears are rising, dancing with interest rates might burst the crypto bubble. Miners are doing the moonwalk, dumping Bitcoin like confetti. Crypto quants spilled the beans on miners moving their stash to exchanges, hinting at a profit-taking strategy. It seems miners are cashing in before the 2024 Bitcoin halving.

12. Are they preparing for the ultimate crypto showdown? And there you have it. Bitcoin is on a wild ride. From euphoric highs to stomach-dropping lows, what are your thoughts on this crypto roller coaster? Let's continue the discussion with Cathie Wood. So, now let's go into a one other metric that I wanted to share.

13. Uh we did this last month as well, but I forgot to mention something. So, this is the yield curve. It's the difference between the 10-year Treasury yield and the 2-year Treasury, uh, yield. And, uh, during recessions, and the recessions are in the shaded areas there. Uh, the yield curve, um, either goes negative right before the recession or in the middle.

14. You can see for the most part it is a uh, late '80s as well in into the 1990 recession. Um, it inverted again. Inverted means went back below zero, uh, before the 2000 tech and telecom bust. Uh, same thing with '08, '09, and here we are again. You can see the yield curve is inverted by more than, um, in any other recession except the '80s.

15. Now, the other thing that I wanted to mention here is you you see, uh, where the yield curve goes during a recession when the Fed is stimulating and fiscal, uh, policy is also stimulating. Um, it usually goes to the 2 to 3% range. Uh, what does that mean? Usually means 10-year Treasury yields are two to three percentage points higher uh, than the 2-year uh, Treasury yield.

16. And, um, you'll notice that during COVID that did not happen. Interesting. Um, and and it is surprising because the world through all kinds of monetary and fiscal policy stimulus at the COVID problem. And one would have thought that we would at least get back to the two to three percentage point area.

17. We did not. Now, why? If we are correct, the reason is because the bond market is sniffing out a deflationary world out there. And so yields, long-term yields, just didn't go as high as many people expected them to go. And relative to two-year Treasury yields. And and it's because they're looking at this these undercurrents of deflation.

18. Lower inflation or deflation would keep long-term Treasury yields down. And we were looking at this in the day and I was saying, "Wow, I didn't appreciate that all that stimulus wouldn't get this yield curve back into the usual two to three percent range. Now, it is more inverted than the past three times.

19. Have to go back to the early 80s. And that just tells us that monetary policy is a lot tighter than most most people appreciate right now. And we after the last set of numbers from October, lower inflation than expected, lower activity than expected, you can see expectations now for the Fed funds rate to come down.

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