저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
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4월 S&P500이 저점 대비 약 15% 반등해 연초 대비 7.5~8% 상승. 반도체·AI·방산 주도 장세지만 에너지 자립 등으로 광범위한 참여도 있음. 연준은 인상 가능성을 언급하나 노동시장 강세로 인하 필요성은 약화; 워시 신임 의장 취임 후 6월 FOMC 주목. 현 시장은 닷컴 버블이나 1970년대 스태그플레이션과 다르다고 평가.
다듬은 글
Welcome back to T-Minus Retirement. My name is Dustin Watts, and I'm sitting with a man who needs no introduction, Professor Jeremy Siegel. Thank you. Yes, good to be with you today. Thank you so much, Professor. Well, I wanted to start off with markets. So, we have just seen a historic run in April, S&P 500 off the bottom, up something like 15%.
You know, it's up 7 and 1/2, 8% on the year. It's I think a lot of people to a lot of people's surprise that that has happened. Um I think the media is really portraying it as all AI, all memory driven. Do you see the rally as narrow as maybe the media is portraying it? I mean, I see a lot of broad market participation, but I wanted to get your take on that.
Well, I think there's a number of things happening. And and thank goodness we have as much oil in the United States as we do, and gas that we do. We are so much more insulated than the rest of the world. I think that that's one of the factors. Um but the second factor is uh you know, what's happening in the chip stocks.
I mean, when Intel came out with those earnings, it was like, you know, you know, bombs away. I mean, unbelievable. They're old chips that they had written off suddenly are worth money, and no one expected that. Remember, the narrative a little before was they're not depreciating them. Right. And then all of a sudden, hey, maybe we're over depreciating.
So, as a result, uh you know, and the AI, and listen, the war, you need AI, drones, and intelligence, and you know, all that defense spending, and the fact that we are net exporters of energy and people are saying, you know, thank God we're just not going to be hit that badly by it. But yeah, did it surprise everyone including me?
I think it surprised everyone. Well, I think you you termed it one of your papers that it was classic bull market behavior, right? That the dip just got bought and you know, we're we're sitting here a month and a half later. Everybody's a little in a little bit more chipper mood and too many people remember Everyone read my book and said always buy the dip.
One day it's not going to work and they're going to be so angry at Well, that's not today. So that's good. it's not today. I mean you know, we're going to Listen, we haven't had a bear market since COVID. Right. And you know in the future there will be one. And that's when you have to keep your faith in the stock market.
Well, and it's good it's good to remember diversification and we can't have everything in chip stocks and memory stocks. No, no, no. Don't try to run in these sectors. I mean they're fun to look at, but if you're long-term planner, you just keep yourself diversify and you keep yourself in the market when times look tough, you're going to be okay.
Yeah. Well, I wanted to switch over to the Fed. We've obviously have a very interesting week this week with the new Fed chair. I think getting past what would it the the nomination Yes. you know, going to be confirmed and then it's going to be you know, it's it's no one questions he's going to be chair and I'm looking that Jan you know, that June 17th meeting is going to be fascinating.
Let me just tell you. Well, and you you were a big proponent of the Fed needs to cut quicker you know, some years ago and now you you've changed that a little bit just recently and you're starting to say, "Hey, the next move from the Fed might be a hike." Yeah. And and my question is I mean is the market prepared for that?
Is that the consensus I think up until this point really was still for cuts. I don't think so because you look at Fed funds futures right now, they actually do predict some a greater probability of a hike than a in a cut. And is that all Uh and and and and it's higher energy costs. Um and you know, I mean some of it's going to filter in.
Um it's also as uh you know, that the money supply is beginning to expand a little bit more. So, there's enough credits. It really doesn't look like credit's too tight. All deals are getting done. Right. And so, this idea what and and the economy change so strong. Look what's going on with the labor market.
We see, you know, jobless claims, you know, 3 weeks ago were at 50-year lows. Yeah. I mean that that's that's absolutely incredible. And look at the last labor market report, blew the socks off of everyone. So, that we're not seeing any sort of softness despite what's going on in Iran and despite, you know, the consumer sentiment indexes, which are you know, so so dire.
So, maybe we'll have to kind of wait and see this how the market does respond if in fact the next move from the Fed is a hike. Well, you know, I don't think certainly worse is going to do it at the first one. And then we get into late July or early August, so much going to happen with respect to the war and other economic developments that you know, it's really really hard to predict, you know, after just like more than one meeting.
Well, this goes into my next question. So, the famous uh Tom Lee, I know you know from Fundstrat. He has You know, he's a Wharton graduate. I didn't know that. Wow. I he didn't he didn't take my class, but you know, I want to say from my school. you would have been proud of him if if he did, but He's a smart man.
I like it. Yeah, I like I like Tom a lot. Yeah, he's very smart. And he he's been talking about this idea of the markets testing a Fed chair. And I I wanted to get your opinion on that cuz I know you study history. and if if the market does in fact test this new Fed chair, you know, is is Kevin Warsh up for that test?
Oh, I think he is. Don't forget he was on the Fed for, you know, I guess more than 4 years already. So, well known and he sat in on meetings. So, you know, he's been a close Fed guy for a long time. I have no problem he'll he'll pass the test. I don't really know what you know, they say it'll test, what they mean is there might be a decline at some time in his first year.
Right. Like markets do. Right. You know, it's not like all of a sudden, oh, we're going to send it down and see what Kevin does. It's more like, you know, there there you know, we might get over Listen, we might get overexcited about chips and there might be some earnings that doesn't come up and then we can have a little bit of a of a of a reaction, a little pullback.
Or or even a correction. Um, you know, those are part of market behavior. Well, I think Tom really is talking about, you know, seeing some type of what feels like a bear market into the second half and then ultimately resolving higher into the end of the year. So, time will tell if if that is the case.
Well, a bear market would be a big thing cuz that's 20%. Yeah. And, you know, we didn't you know, we just stopped short of 20% during the tariff brouhaha last year. Uh, so we didn't quite make it last year. You have to go back to the pandemic to get the last bear market. So, I know you've been watching M2 quite a bit.
You've been writing about it. You you've seen that tick up. Um, are you seeing any early warning signs that that increase in M2 is going to lead to broader inflation? I see that it I thought that the money was was increasing a little too slow up until 2 months ago. Okay. Um, and and that combined with a little other evidence, I was sort of on the side of a cut, at least moving forward.
Now that I see money going a little bit faster, and I actually see uh, some of the inflation data, I I now don't think a cut would be really called for unless we really see some weak weakness in the labor market. And as I just said, we see tremendous strength in the labor market. Um, that certainly with respect to jobless claims and and the payrolls data, and even, you know, the uh, be- between the payroll data, we get that ADP weekly data, which has also been strong.
We just don't see any layoffs. So, it's a little bit of a wait-and-see kind of environment, right? always is, honestly. You know, we try to predict the future, but you know, the events happen as they do. So, my last question, Professor, I've really noticed this, um, the last couple of years. It seems like we have this phenomenon of commentators always wanting to be the person that calls the dot-com, which you did, by the way, right?
Um, That was one time I got really bearish. Nobody said I've never been bearish. No, I was bearish. 2000, March. I got that op-ed piece in Wall Street Journal. Yeah, well, and it went down in history, right? Yeah, it did, almost. Yeah. One of the few. I mean, most people online are not senior credentials to be calling these types of things, but they they like to equate the current market either to the 1970s, when we had just stagflation, when we had either the dot-com or, you know, the '08 financial crisis.
I I guess my question is, um, do you see any similarities to the market that we're in today to either the 1970s, when we had oil spike, we had slow growth, that stagflationary environment? I've seen that pick up a lot of traction online. Um, or anything, of course, the dot-com bubble, you know, when tech stocks go up, everybody wants to say it's dot-com.
Yeah. you see any similarities to any of those two? First of all, don't forget stagflation is a combination of stagnant economy and inflation. Right. Now, it is true we see upticks in inflation, but I don't see a stagnant economy. I mean, you know, GDP increasing 2 to 2.5% um as it's projected um and uh you know, some some places are projecting 3% in the second quarter.
That's not stagnation. Stagnation is where you're barely going and you have inflation. That's what we had in the '70s. We had rapid inflation with virtually no real growth. Now, I'm not saying real growth growth is gangbusters now, but it is certainly not stagnant. Okay. So, uh you know, the to to call it stagnation stagflation, you need both parts and we don't have that first part uh characterizing today's economy.
Okay. Um as far as the dot-com boom, I mean as I've said, that was absolutely you know, miles crazier than anything that's going on now. Um PE ratios are two to three times higher than now for companies not as well established as we have now and people don't remember interest rates higher then, Okay.
more competition than what we have today even with the slightly rising interest the the interest rate situation was much more severe then. So, I mean, uh I'm not saying that we couldn't get there, But we're not there yet. Uh you know, anything can happen, but we're absolutely not there yet. Well, I think that settles it then.
Appreciate everybody watching. If you like the video, please like, subscribe. We'll see you in the next one. Hey.
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