Ed Yardeni: Earnings are driving the market, layoffs playing a part

요약 보기

S&P500 연말 7000 가능성 제기. 3분기 S&P500 이익은 당초 6.5%에서 약 14% 성장 전망으로 상향, 실적 주도 랠리(상반기 실적도 예상보다 강함). 생산성 급증으로 GDP는 강하고 실업률은 낮게 유지될 것으로 봄. 해고 증가는 기술·물류 부문 생산성 향상 관련으로 해석. 실질임금은 사상 최고, 가계소비도 사상 최고 수준. 소득·부 불평등은 베이비붐 세대 고령화 등 인구구조 요인으로 설명.

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01. Time the major indices, erasing most of their losses from last week driven by some optimism that the government shutdown will end soon as well as easing concerns about the AI trade. Let's bring in Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, still aiming for the S&P to end the year at or maybe close to 7K.

02. Ed, it's good to see you. There was some discussion this morning that the 50-day was tested and held. You know that when you're down three for the week and that's the worst in 7 months, it's probably time for some consolidation. You're right. Well, I think that's true, but what's really driving this market is I think is earnings.

03. The the earning story has been phenomenal in in some ways we've had an earnings led melt-up which is the the highest quality melt-up you could possibly have because it's actually based on the fundamentals. And we watch analyst consensus expectations on a weekly basis and they've been raising their 2026 numbers.

04. The first and second quarters of this year turned out to be much better than they thought. They thought it was going to be kind of low to mid single digits. It turned out to be a low double-digit increase on a year-over-year basis. And the same thing now is happening with the third quarter earnings reporting season.

05. Instead of up 6 and 1/2% it's coming out at something like 14% for S&P 500 earnings. So that's phenomenal given all the volatility we've had this year. Right. Sarah mentioned the layoff portion though and Goldman Sachs does have a layoff tracker 14-year high now. Is that why some of these earnings are coming in so good?

06. I think that is partly the story and the big story is productivity. You know, before the government shutdown we had a very strong number for the second quarter revised up to almost 4% and something like well also 4% is the Atlanta Fed's last reading on the third quarter. And so here we have real GDP looking stronger and being revised up and the labor market numbers being revised down.

07. That obviously means productivity is booming and we're seeing that in earnings. Look, the the layoffs I follow the Challenger numbers and the Challenger numbers did go up a lot in last month but that was mostly technology and warehousing and a lot of that is productivity related. It's not as though you know, the demand for warehousing services and technology services are down.

08. A lot of people thought that UPS was a heavyweight on that on that that Challenger number which explains your point. But Ed, so are we heading are we marching into an economy that's like strong growth, I don't know, 3-4% growth and and high unemployment where we could be looking at, you know, 3% growth, 5% unemployment?

09. And and is that really a good thing for the market? Well, I've been talking about the roaring 2020s since 2020 and back then it could kind of look delusional but I'm I'm feeling better and better about it. No, I I don't think that there's a a fundamental problem in the labor market. I think there's structural problems but they're really not problems.

10. They're something we just They are It's we're just going to have to live with the fact that we've got a much slower growth rate in the labor supply and at the same time because of AI and other management tools that are using are being used to increase productivity and augment productivity, we're probably going to continue to have a very low unemployment rate.

11. I don't see the unemployment rate going up a lot. Uh you know, and if that's the case, then the productivity is the story and productivity is great for real wages. So what what we lose at a slower head count, we're going to gain on wages rising faster than prices. Uh page one of the journal today though, shareholders drive economy but everyone else is wary.

12. I mean, when I I remember your first mentions of the roaring 20s analogy but I don't think you were maybe leaning on the The 20s were not a great period for inequality for equality. Well, the the 19 if you're if you're talking about the 1920s, we had a tremendous increase in the standard of living because of technological innovations that improved people's lives.

13. I think we there's an analogy to today. The reality is a lot of the income and wealth inequality has a great deal to do with demography. We've got the most wealthy retiring generation ever in the baby boomers and I know from personal experience and including my friends' experiences that we're helping the kids.

14. It is it is a tough go there for you for young folks. But the reality is real wages are an all-time record high. Consumption per per household is an all-time record high. So the macro data still looks pretty good recognizing of course that there are people that are not that are struggling and are not doing well. Yeah, I mean Ed, I you know