저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
요약 보기
Yardeni는 최근 AI 섹터 우려를 투자자 심리 과열 해소 신호로 보고 AI 조정을 매수 기회로 봄. 실적(EPS)이 예상을 크게 상회해 시장 하방을 받치고 있으며, 3분기 연속 S&P500 신고가 가능성을 언급. 포워드 PE는 약 22~23배로 Magnificent 7(30배)을 제외하면 부담이 크지 않다고 평가. 연말 S&P500 7,000 목표를 유지하고 11~12월 산타랠리 가능성을 제시.
다듬은 글
Stock futures higher um especially the NASDAQ uh this morning as it looks like the government will reopen. The Senate took the first step towards ending at Yardenni Research. Thought about you a couple of times recently, Ed. Number one, I thought about you when we basically were at 6,900 on the S&P and I was thinking, wow, Yardeni was 7,000.
And actually I think you think it could even go further than that maybe by the end of the year. Then I thought about Tom Lee who said he he had similar targets but said near-term definitely going to be bumpy uh because of the AI trade and and people were definitely worried about uh AI. Is this is that finished or is there more to come in terms of just that particular Yeah.
uh sector? Yeah. Yeah. Tom and I have basically been looking at the market the same way. And uh a week ago when I saw that the bull bear ratio that investors intelligence puts out uh was over four, I concluded there are too many bulls. [snorts] And looks like we cleaned out uh some of some of the uh bulls last week.
But yeah, I I think uh this is kind of a buy in the dip market particularly in in AI. Uh I know uh there's a lot of nervousness about AI, but that's a good thing. Uh in the late 1990s, uh when I was around uh during the uh bubble, the tech bubble followed by the tech wreck, nobody saw the tech wreck really coming.
Uh nobody was really worried about uh a a bubble in in the market that I can recall. Not the way it is today where everybody seems to be worrying about it. Uh but I I think AI is all right. I think uh it's it's basically an app that has widespread applications and what it the payoff is actually in in uh in the cloud.
The cloud providers are making a fortune uh as a result of AI. I was thinking that too that I'm always trying to figure out what the hardest thing to to embrace is because that's always the right thing. you know, when you when a stock, you know, stock you feel like it's you're ready to get sick to your stomach, that's probably when you should buy instead of selling.
And it's it's almost always like that. So, my idea is maybe we still don't understand how transformational AI could be down the road and we could still be but but but we won't know for for quite a while. What fascinated me about your comment, Ed, uh was how strong earnings uh have been. In fact, you you could say that there's a floor underneath this market,
not based on multiples expanding, which could happen because of the Fed, but based on the E side of things, much better than than people thought. Yeah. Well, you know, I I uh I I am an economist, but somewhere along the the way I also became a strategist, and I always found economics a little bit difficult because there's so many so many variables you have to forecast.
Uh when it comes to strategy, as you said, it's really PE time E. It should be that simple and it's very simple to to forecast using that model. Getting it right is is is where the trick is. But on the east side, it's been phenomenal. I mean, you would think that uh with all the commotion coming out of Washington, the geopolitical commotion, uh the the pressure on margins from tariffs, uh that this would be a bad year for profits.
Actually, it's phenomenal. We're going to have record highs in S&P 500 once again for the third quarter in a row. And uh the analyst expectations just keep getting beat uh dramatically. So for example, in the current quarter, the current earning season, analysts expected an increase of about 6 and a.5%.
It's coming out 14% on a year-over-year basis. So uh you're absolutely correct. I think that the the earnings are there to to keep the market going. And in a sense, we've had an earningsled meltup, which is of course the the kind of meltup that you really want. Yeah. Uh it'd be nice if things were based on like multiple expansions.
I woo. Uh but what do what do you have the forward S&P multiple at right now approximately? Well, right now right now the actual forward PE is running around 22 to 23. Uh it's been there uh on and off. I mean, when we came out of the uh pandemic lockdown and and the Fed came in with its uh monetary easing to help us get through it all, uh we saw that the PE zoomed up to 22 and so uh it took about 6 months to get there and here we are back at 22.
I know a lot of people are uncomfortable with that, but you know, a lot of that obviously is the Magnificent 7. They're selling at 30 times forward PE. The S&P 493 is selling at uh about 1920. That's not cheap, but it's not crazy. Yeah. So 7,000 by the end of the year. Have you changed that? That that you should have stuck to all all.
No. The the the basic bottom line of it all is we're in a bull market. Uh it's been a volatile year this year, but u at the end of the day, we're at all-time record highs uh in in the market in the past couple of weeks. Uh, and yeah, I think there could be a a good solid Santa Claus rally. I I tend to focus on November and December rather than on uh the uh Thanksgiving to Christmas period. And that usually adds about four percentage points.
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