저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
요약 보기
정부 셧다운 합의 제안은 시장에 긍정적이며 공화당이 수용할 것으로 보임. AI 트레이드는 최근 급등락 후 추세선 부근으로 복귀했으나 여전히 유효하다고 봄. 다만 Meta는 과도한 자본지출로 우려 대상이며, 셧다운이 분기 GDP를 1~2%p 깎을 수 있음. 합의 후 실물경기(감원, 관세, 연말 소비)를 점검해야 한다는 입장.
다듬은 글
Spring and Jeremy Siegel. He is of the Wharton School, of course, the professor of finance WisdomTree chief economist. Good to see you. Welcome back. Good to be here, Scott. We'll get to the story of the week, which is obviously a little anxiety over AI, if if you will. But the news that we just got, not related to stablecoins per se, but from Emily Wilkins about a potential breakthrough or at least an offer to try and end this government shutdown.
What do you think it means to stocks? Well, I mean, I I about 20 minutes ago I saw the Dow go up 150 points in about 30 seconds and I said, "Something's afoot here." And you know, I didn't know at that time and I was thinking it could be an offer. That's why it's so dangerous to be short in this market because, you know, you're going to get a pop if it reopens.
You know, very honestly, I I think the Republicans would be very smart to take this offer. I don't think the government shutdown has worked to their advantage at all. Certainly in all the the the polls that have been taken, it hasn't worked to the their advantage even though they're the ones that have voted to keep it open.
The public thinks, "Hey, the Republicans control Congress, they control the presidency, you know, I'm I'm you know, I'm I'm going to put the responsibility on you." This is a this is a way off. It's a lot less money than the trillion and a half that was bruted, you know, by Schumer early on, you know, we wanted this and this and this.
And uh as has been said, a lot of Republican districts you know, are are are not really prepared for some of these increases because I mean, the tax break is probably only 15 to 20% but healthcare premiums are going up so much that anything that can help moderate those, especially for the lower income groups, which are a lot of Trump supporters as we know, I think the Republicans would be wise to take it.
I think I think they will. Professor, I appreciate you reacting so quickly to the news of this moment as we see it obviously impacting how this market is trading with less than an hour to go in the week. I want to steer you though to what I think has really been the story of this week and that is anxiety over this AI trade.
I'm wondering what you make of it, the fact the Nasdaq is certainly come off its worst levels, but it's still down more than 3% on the week. And many of these big AI related stocks have obviously been extraordinarily volatile this week. What do you make of it? Well, you know, 2 weeks ago for those 2 weeks they shot up and and I relative to the market I I often chart the tech stocks relative to market, it was sort of a shooting up and shooting back down and now it's right back at the trendline and the trendline is still that these stocks over the last 6 months, over the last year, after 2 years are still moving up relative to the next to the rest of the market.
You know, that trend certainly can't continue forever. What what I think though, Scott, whenever anyone says it's the beginning of the end and when everyone starts saying it's the beginning of the end, I begin to say, "Hey, no, that's not the way it works." Well, it's usually when and when everyone is totally optimistic that you see the market begin to crumble.
So, I I still think the AI trade is on. I mean, I hear the arguments against it. You know, Meta's having a particular problem because of all its you know, capital expenditures and you know, it it is true because I've done the research for firms that do a too much capital spending actually have underperformed over decades in the market and we're we're putting Meta in that category, but the rest of them are generating those profits with that expenditures.
Um I'm I'm interested to see how the market does if if the Republicans take this and it reopens. I think then once that cloud is out of the way, I think we're going to get a truer look. Then we're then we're basing stock prices on the state of the economy. I think this shutdown could shave one one and a half, maybe two points off of GDP this quarter.
Certainly if it goes on and they don't take this offer. We saw consumer sentiment anything it could be three. Um You know, I can't I would say that it has to end the week before Chris before Thanksgiving because that's usually the earliest that everyone travels to their family. No one wants that to happen.
But I think that as I say, I think Republicans would be wise to take it and I think you'll you'll get a bounce. But then look, next week if we get a settlement over the weekend I want to see now we got to look at the effect of you know, what's going to you know, happening on the slowdown, the layoffs, whether the tariffs are going to affect the Christmas buying.
When people see the prices complaining about those high prices, I think we're going to shake out what the real economy looks like.
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