저자: JimCramer · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 2020년 원자재(금속·광업·기초소재) 및 에너지 섹터가 추가 상승 여지가 있으며, 강세장이 이어질 수 있다는 기술적 분석 제시. 다만 진행자 본인은 에너지 섹터에 아직 확신이 없다고 밝힘. [배경 및 시장 진단] 2019년 S&P 500은 25% 상승. 진행자는 시장 전체보다 섹터별 접근이 필요하다고 주장. 금속·광업·기초소재·에너지 종목은 2019년에 소외됨. [금속·광업 (XME)] 2018년 고점 이후 약 40% 하락, 2018년 12월 약 25달러에서 바닥 형성. 이후 낮아지는 고점과 평평한 저점이 만든 '플랫 트라이앵글' 패턴 형성. 최근 200일 이동평균선 상향 돌파. 단기 50일선이 200일선을 상향 돌파하는 골든크로스 가능성 언급(수주 내 예상). [기초소재 (XLB)] 연중 상승 추세에서 유사한 플랫 트라이앵글 형성. 59달러 저항 돌파 후 현재 약 59~60달러대. 제조업 호조와 가격 상승력의 신호로 해석. [에너지 (XLE)] 여전히 하락 추세. 50일·200일 이동평균선 모두 하락 중. 200일선이 강한 저항으로 작용. 쉐브론(CVX)은 2018년 12월 저점 이후 삼중 바닥 형성 가능성. 현재 조정 구간이 이전보다 높아 상승 발판으로 해석, 200일선 돌파 필요. 진행자는 관련 서비스주(슐럼버거, 할리버튼 등) 반등을 언급하나, 에너지 섹터 전반은 여전히 확신하지 않는다고 밝힘. [결론 및 리스크] 세 섹터(금속광업·기초소재·에너지)가 동반 상승하면 2020년 강세장 강화 가능. 다만 돌파가 확인되지 않았고 시간이 걸릴 수 있으며, 실패 가능성도 있음. 진행자 본인은 이 시장 부문에 대해 아직 'believer'가 아니라고 명시.
다듬은 글
with the S&P 500 up 25% for 2019 you gotta wonder can we keep climbing into 2020 you know what I think that's the wrong approach instead of worrying about the whole market I think you got to be specific sector specifics but just like I said at the top because some of them are absolutely positioned roar next year and that's why tonight we're going off the charts with the help of Dan Fitzpatrick he's that terrific technician who's the founder of stock market mentor as well as being my colleague at real money comm where I blog to get a better read on the industries that could have serious upside potential next year that frankly I've been left behind in 2019 in particular Fitzpatrick lights get this the metals and mining base material and energy stocks some of the most school groups imaginable some real dogs when employment strong the Fed is your friend and the global economy is starting to read them so maybe these stocks can work in the last few weeks we've seen a terrific break out in the metals and the basic material stocks that has a lot of smart people I know buzzing about how the time is at last right to invest in these down-and-out groups as for energy its lagging behind the others as you know but this Patrick started to see some sides of life there if these three groups can continue climbing well that gives the bull market a lot more fuel even though I know that the actual stocks that are left in this cohort aren't that big when it comes to market capitalization anymore let's start with the daily chart of the SP metals and mining ETF and that's called the X M now this group peaked early last year and then promptly fell about 40% before finding a bottom last December at around 25 remember that was when the Fed decided to have to change this mine we bent and get more bullish we've been a synchronized global expansion which was great for the metals but then the rest of the world started losing steam in the US economy got got punched by the Fed in the fourth quarters I just mentioned and that's why the metals and mining stocks went out of style on the wall street fashion show just to show you that says they got to keep raising rates obviously things go bad then the Fed relents and then things go higher that's what you need to know since then fitzpatrick points out that each rally and the xme has had a lower high okay think about this lower high than the previous one you can see on the ETF's to turn your movie average that's been putting a ceiling on it over the past year and that sealing tilts down however while the highs keep getting lower the lows were flat you know what this is called this is called a flat triangle pattern flat triangle pattern we're in fitzpatrick when you see this kind of formation within a downtrend you know it's only a matter of time before statins gotta give sooner or later the ceiling comes so close to the floor that a breakout is unavoidable the question is whether it'll be a breakout to the outside of the downside so again let's keep this in mind as these get narrow narrow narrow something's got to give well a couple of weeks ago we got the answer the xme finally broke out above its 200-day moving average and it was the decisive move suddenly the old ceiling is now the new floor and within a few weeks fitzpatrick predicts that the shorter term 50-day moving average will cost above the 200-day moving average this is what's known as a golden cross if we get it and that's the kind of incredibly bullish pattern the technician is just salivating for once that happens well then the new uptrend will be confirmed I should say one if it happens it shouldn't say once when it happens because there it still might fail how about the materials select sector spdr etf the xlb this time this cooks actually been trending higher for most of the year creating different kind of flat triangle pattern see the green lines well the xw made a series of higher lows its highs kept running into the same psyllium resistance at 59 but just like with the metals ETF when you see a flat triangle the breakout as they call as these coordinates kind you know come together well something's gotta give again when the SOPs up for the euro hasn't it's up but it hasn't really been keeping pace with the core S&P 500 but a couple weeks ago the basic materials etf finally broke out to the upside it's currently at $59 $69 basic materials tore the core components of an economic expansion when these groups are strong you know that manufacturing is doing better than expected and there's pricing powerful finished goods we just need one more sector to start working before we can round out the natural resources trifecta and that's the one that you know I dislike so much energy unfortunately the energy cohorts in worse shape and you can see that's just not as pretty a picture want you to take a look at this is the excellent all right the energy selects sector spider that's the SPD are you have technically the energy cohorts still stuck in down through those Patrick points out to both the 50-day moving average and the 200 moving average are trending lower which means there's not much for the Bulls to cheer about here every time the energy group tries to rally it runs into a seemingly unbreakable silient resistance at the 200-day moving average and I grow more and more wary of recommending any of them even the best ones however if it's Patrick leaves this downtrend is ended CVX Olli has actually made a triple bottom here and that it starts right here that's one bottom that's two bottom here's the third bottom right and that's where the lower the lows from December 2018 hold up at the same time the consolidation over the past month has occurred at a higher level than the triple bottom pattern so here's the consolidation now the ISIL is headed higher again sending up another test of this 200-day moving average and that's the blue line but this time we're coming at that test from a much higher level so rather than just from here we're coming at it from here it's certainly better launching pad the bull's want to see a breakout here the same way we got to break out in the metals etf last week but factually thinks it may take a while for this to happen we might be earlier but it's definitely something you should watch for in the weeks ahead now here's my view it wouldn't surprise me if he's right we've seen some very strong action bridges and slumbers haven't traveled trusted was that one Halliburton those are two oil service stocks over the past few months but suggest that while that group may have finally bought them of course a lot of people have been burned before Betty want to turn energy though quitting me and my Chapel trust because within a couple of some real clunkers in this patch but then you'd have all three sectors going higher metals miners mining in oil that's pretty bullish the bottom line here the charge is interpreted by Dan Fitzpatrick suggest that the metals and mining and basic materials plays are headed higher and even the energy cohort might be ready to turn soon if that's the case in 2020 could be a very good year for this bull market even as I'm gonna tell you point blank I am not yet a believer in this part of the market sti
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