저자: JeffreyGundlach · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 연준은 내년 5월까지 금리를 동결할 가능성이 높으며, 파월의 정책 일관성은 낮게 평가된다. 연준 금리 동결 전망: 설문에서 100%가 연준의 금리 동결을 예상했으며, 본인도 동의한다고 밝힘. 채권시장은 연준 금리가 2021년 3분기 무렵까지 변하지 않을 것으로 봄. 인플레이션과 금리 관계: 파월은 지난 10월 물가 상승이 지속적으로 높아져야 금리 인상을 고려하겠다고 했으며, 이는 연준이 인플레이션을 2% 이상으로 끌어올리려는 의도로 해석됨. 현재 10년물 국채금리가 CPI 상승률(2%)보다 낮아 실질금리가 마이너스 상태이며, 이는 부채 부담을 완화하려는 정책으로 봄. 파월 평가(C-): 2018년 말 양적긴축 자동조종과 연속 금리인상을 강조했다가 2019년 3차례 금리인하로 급선회한 점이 신뢰도를 떨어뜨림. 마이너스 금리 반대는 긍정적으로 평가. 다만 2018년 긴축으로 주식시장 20% 하락과 정크본드 시장 폐쇄를 초래했다고 비판. 정책 방향성: 연준이 원칙 있는 전망 대신 시장을 추종하고 있다고 비판. 볼커 전 의장과 대비되며, 보험성 금리 조정(중기 조정)이 실제 실행될 가능성은 낮다고 봄. 다음 경기침체 시 대규모 자산매입(양적완화)을 할 것으로 예상. 고용시장: 트럼프 집권 3년간 일자리 증가율은 오바마 말기 3년보다 약 10% 낮음. 다만 주간 실업수당 청구건수가 약 20만 건으로 낮아진 점은 긍정적이며, 노동참가율 상승이 경기 인식을 개선. 리스크: 무역전쟁·지정학 리스크 등 불확실성 존재. 연준이 시장 변화에 따라 정책을 번복할 가능성. 출연자 전망: 금리 동결 장기화 전망, 주식·채권시장 방향에 대한 명시적 종목 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
what do you expect today I think yeah I think I saw on CNBC yesterday there was a survey and the result was unanimous 100 percent said the Fed isn't going to do anything and I have nothing to add to that because that seems absolutely positively correct the Fed is going to keep rates unchanged and probably have a message that they are kind of encouraging inflation to go higher one of most important statements that I think has gotten less play than it should as Jay Powell said in late October he said that we would have to see a significant rise in inflation that is persistent to even consider raising interest rates to fight inflation so the Fed wants inflation to be higher actually and they've contextualized this by saying well 2% was our target for many many years and we fell short so now we need to kind of fill the gap of which makes no sense to me whatsoever I think it's cover for wanting interest rates to basically be below the inflation rate which seems to be the game plan for central banks in developed countries really around the world and so now we have the ten-year Treasury yield is below the inflation rate the CPI is up at 2% the core CPI is up higher than 2% and yet the interest rates are being kept below that so Fed knows that we have a debt problem the United States and that the way to push it out the day of reckoning out into the future is to have interest rates below the inflation rate which is been accomplished now by the Fed I want to talk to you about j-pal mm-hmm you said the other day that you'd give him a c-minus if you were grading him and you likened him to a losing NFL football coach how is that fair well because jpowel 12 months ago had a framework about what his outlook was for 2019 a basic framework about viewing the world and that framework was quantitative tightening on autopilot regardless of economic data and successive interest rate increases during 2019 and three weeks later it was exactly the opposite so it's difficult to take to give him a lot of credibility in the message in the messaging because of the u-turn that was taken and instead of raising rates successively into a 19 we've cut rates three times in 2019 so a very different a playing field for 2019 and what we expected I think the one reason that I give jpowel a c-minus and not a D is that he has said and I'm not sure we can believe him because we couldn't believe what he said last December he has said this to fight the next recession he does not believe negative interest rates are a good idea in the United States and I applaud that as loudly as I possibly can because I think negative interest rates the United States would really be a problem for the global financial system he has said he will do large-scale asset purchases to fight the next recession which means obviously a quantitative easing program so what we are looking at is an environment where the next recession I believe left alone to market forces long-term interest rates would probably rise but jpowel I believe has told us if we can believe him because he didn't he changed his mind so quickly after his December statements but he's told us that he will control long-term interest rates to fight the next recession through quantitative easing what's wrong if he simply realized and the Fed realized that maybe they made a mistake by raising rates last know something's wrong with endo as goes the playing field using your language changed perhaps the trade war there are tariffs actually he's had to manage his way through all of that yes I suppose you've been kind of generous I mean when when he did the quantity of tightening autopilot statement and the successive interest rate increases the risk asset markets were already having trouble it wasn't like that suddenly him saying that led to the decline of over 20 percent in stock market and the closure of the junk bond market where there were two months where you could even float a new issue junk bond in the fourth quarter of 2018 because the market was closed this was all because of what the Fed was doing and yet it was one market finally flushed out down in late December where the apology tour came out so I I think that what happened was the Fed thought they had a framer that was working the markets threw a temper tantrum about it and they were forced then to go back to basically the Fed model that we've had for quite a few years now which is following the market rather than I mean the great Paul Volcker just passed away this week at age 92 he was the one that really had control over what the interest rates were and wasn't just listening to the market and I wish that with if there were if the Federal Reserve has a purpose it should be to have an Outlook and follow it regardless of what the market does and instead Jay Paul capitulated and went along with what the bond market has said and now the vaad markets completely in sync with the Fed I mean you you have Fed Funds rates the same basically as the 2-year Treasury which is kind of the same is the five-year Treasury which means that the Fed is now comfortably on hold but what Jay Powell has done is he raised rates four times and into in 20 in 2018 that cut rates three times in 2019 what we've basically gone nowhere we've just put ourselves on kind of a wild ride which I believe was unnecessary are you against the concept and the idea of an insurance policy because that's what it was it was taking out an insurance policy unless things got bad because of the trade war and other issues be a geopolitical or otherwise you can throw breaks it into that stew and the uncertainty of knowing where all of that was going to play out what's wrong with an insurance policy well why did you raise rates four times in the first place what is my reaction to that there's nothing wrong with with adjusting policy and you can call insurance policy called a mid-cycle adjustment if you want to but it doesn't seem to me that there's much chance of the Fed really following through on this mid-cycle adjustment concept because that would mean that we're going to raise rates again yet Jay Powell in October said to raise rates we need a substantial increase in inflation that is persistent so even if inflation goes up what they're telling you is there's no intention of raising interest rates unless the dynamics change pretty remarkably so all we did was raise rates four times just to cut them three times we should have just left to lift them alone the whole time it's my opinion do you think he should be replaced I mean he's taking over fire all year long from them no I don't think he's I don't think he's any different than what would you would replace him with I think the Federal Reserve has turned into body is essentially following the market and now the bond market is saying there's no purpose and raising rates they're not going to raise rates there's no purpose in cutting rates and so we're probably going to be on hold for quite some time the bond market says that will probably be unchanged interest rates until maybe the third quarter of next year and that that to me is what's motivating the Fed labor markets pretty strong the economy's pretty good markets at record high what some would look at that and say you know what the Fed has somehow managed to do its job pretty well well some people give president credit to the president too but you're on the labor market what's interesting is people keep talking about how great the labor market is and it's good for sure but the job growth under Trump for three years is less than job growth of the last three years of Obama by about ten percents about ten percent less so that's not any better what's better is people aren't getting laid off that's what's better about the labor market but weekly unemployment claims are really low there are about two hundred thousand right now which is the lowest tick in a long long time they're down by about thirty percent from the last three years of Obama so on the last three years Obama job growth payroll growth was pretty good but people were getting laid off to the tune of about 300,000 per week now it's down to the low two hundred thousand so it's a pretty big drop so that I think is why the economy is perceived to be better on the jobs market because the labor force participation has increased it was under a steep decline for many many years and starting in about 2016 in the last year of Obama it finally started to improve and I think that's a very that's the good thing that's going on you
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