저자: JeffreyGundlach · 외국인
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결론: 현재 시장은 약세장(베어마켓)이며 2월 저점 아래로 하락할 가능성이 매우 높다고 본다. 시장 상황: 작년 12월 이후 변동성이 지속되고 있으며, S&P500은 2월 저점보다 약 50포인트 위에 있다. 약세장 판단 근거: 20% 하락 기준은 임의적이며, 심리 변화와 전개 과정이 중요하다. 닷컴 버블, 서브프라임 등 과거 과열 사례처럼 비정상적 현상이 지나치게 오래 지속되었고, 이번에는 암호화폐 비트코인이 17,500달러에서 3,500달러 이하로 약 85% 폭락했다. 확산 과정: 글로벌 증시가 1월 고점 이후 하락했고, 다우·나스닥·S&P500이 차례로 무너졌으며, 이후 FANG 종목과 아마존·애플까지 하락했다. 애플이 휴대폰 판매량 공개를 중단한 것이 마지막 계기였다. 촉발 요인: 10월 초 USMCA 관련 자동차 부품 원산지 규정으로 비용 상승 우려가 커졌고, 포드 임원의 가격 인상 언급으로 시장이 현실화를 인식했다. 같은 날 파월 연준 의장의 '중립금리에서 아직 멀다'는 발언이 긴축 우려를 키워 시장이 10% 이상 하락했다. 단기 전망: 수출 민감도가 높은 한국 증시(코스피)는 10월 29일 저점 이후 상대적으로 버티고 있으며, 신흥국도 수출 의존도 때문에 다소 나은 흐름이다. 심리는 매우 침체되어 있고, VIX가 40 이상으로 치솟아야 바닥 신호로 볼 수 있는데 아직 그 수준에 못 미쳐 불안하다. 리스크: 하락 추세의 연장과 VIX 미상승에 따른 추가 하락 가능성이 주요 위험이다.
다듬은 글
almost a year to the day that we were last with you it was December 13th last year that's right and we're still volatile in the market today is another representation of that we're still about 50 points above on the SP of the February lows yes you think we're gonna go below that well in the fullness of time I think absolutely will go below that I'm pretty sure this is a bear market I mean people like this definition of 20% down as a bear market but that's obviously very arbitrary I've been around for over 35 years in this business and I've seen a number of bear markets and it's more about kind of how you lead into it how it develops now the sentiment changes and I think we've had pretty much all of the variables that characterize a bear market I mean I remember you know going usually something happens that really doesn't make any sense at all and I'm kind of amazed at how it goes on longer than it should like back in the dot-com days when companies were being IPO they had no sales let alone any revenue that's hard to believe and they would actually exclude to the upside on the IPO that's kind of crazy and then we had these you know subprime lending with pick up a loans back in O five and O six and that was kind of crazy and that went on longer than should of and this time like we talked about a year ago it was crypto is Bitcoin which was truly o mein eeeh I mean it's have we talked about a year ago it just went up for you know maybe in the end it's a good thing or the the blockchain technology is a good thing but the way it was being treated and being believed in was amania and then it crashed about a week after we met a year ago and it was at 17,500 when we were speaking right in the spot and of course now it's down about below 3,500 so about an 85 percent decline and then one after another you started to see various sectors of the global financial markets give it up I mean the global stock market peat January 26 and so did the New York Stock Exchange composite Jeremy 26 but the Dow Jones Industrials you know the Nasdaq the S&P 500 all these things one by one started to roll over and then come the summer time or later in the summer time it you were down to the fangs and then you were down to two stocks it was Amazon and Apple and then Amazon gave it up then finally when they decided they weren't gonna tell you how many phones they sold anymore Apple gave it up that was the last straw and that was kind of last straw yeah and it was really you know October 3rd when the tariffs well it was that USMC whatever it's called that is really NAFTA up and that's called a US MCA or wherever it is and it was announced that those two you know that we would have this change in after that would lead to a requirement that a certain fraction of car parts be made in higher costs locales which basically meant not Mexico and a senior executive of Ford Motor said well obviously ever have to raise the prices on our cars if the input prices are going up and suddenly the market seemed to wake up to the fact that this was real and the next day the stock market tipped over in fact on October 3rd Jay Powell said we're a long way from neutral that way that was a big problem too that seemed to be the tipping point yes that was with the USMC a thing and the Ford Motor executive those things seemed to come together in coalesce into we've had enough and yeah so the Jay Powell thing was really interpreted by the market as a scary thing that the Fed was really going to keep going a long distance further and then the market dropped over 10 percent and suddenly the Fed had to massage the rhetoric and suddenly it was well we have a new definition of neutral maybe we're actually within the lower bound or close to lower bound of neutral in an attempt to stabilize the market so yeah it seems like a bear market to me and the way the things trade with late-day volume being bad and the like the best thing for the near-term I think is that the most export sensitive stock market South Korea the Copsey bottom to October 29th so at least that's not pushing tonneaus and at least emerging markets broadly they were doing a little bit better because they're extremely export driven so maybe this leg down is getting toward an exhaustion point the sentiment is pretty dark right now I'd be happier on the short-term outlook if the VIX would go above 40 you know which is you know a sign that would be quite a spike well that's typically what happens when you get at a bottom there's so much nervousness and and fear the VIX is a little bit disturbing how it doesn't go higher actually as the market pushes to the downside I think this is a bear market and I think we're going to go below the February lows almost with certainty you
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