저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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결론: 차마스는 자신을 가치투자자로 규정하며, 테슬라를 장기 보유 대상으로 여전히 강하게 긍정함. 투자 판단 프레임: 먼저 '평등(불평등 해소)과 기후변화 해결' 두 가지 렌즈로 기회를 거르고, 이후 현금흐름, 해자(기술적 진입장벽), 안전마진(분기 실수에도 버틸 진입가격)을 점검함. 과거 딜들이 이 프레임에 잘 맞는다고 주장. 테슬라: 2014~15년 전환사채에 투자해 큰 수익을 냈고, 현재 시총 8000억 달러 이상에서도 '매수'라고 답변. 자동차 회사를 넘어 에너지 탈규제(가정용 태양광·배터리·소프트웨어로 전력망 이탈)가 다음 혁신이며, 이것이 테슬라를 수조 달러 기업으로 만든다고 봄. 주가가 현재보다 몇 배 오를 수 있다고 주장(구체 목표가·기간 언급 없음). 자금 운용: 버핏식 영구자본 개념을 언급하며 대부분 매도하지 않는다고 함. 운용 규모는 약 100~150억 달러로 추정하나 정확치 않다고 함. 유동성 요구로 가족사무소로부터 버추(Virgin) 주식 수백만 주를 매도한 사실 언급. 리스크/조건: 명시적 하방 리스크 논의는 제한적. 자금 구조 정리(소셜캐피털 3.0)가 과제라고 언급. 자산 전반(비트코인 등) 보유 여부는 불명확. 출연자 전망: 장기적으로 긍정적이며 단기 가격 예측은 없음.
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um but the reality is all of the things i want to do um vastly outweighs the capital that i have you know probably i'm you know running 10 plus billion dollars 10 15 billion i don't know the exact number to be completely honest i should but i am risk on and i am moving a lot of balls down the field myself and my team i want to understand shema how you decide what to invest in do you believe and this is a subject that's come up on your podcast your all in podcast do you believe in fundamentals or has been as has been argued a stock can trade wherever regardless of whether it is or isn't hinged you know to the fundamentals of the underlying business well maybe i can just give you an insight into how i process any opportunity sure company random company comes in uh to the top of the party immediately i'm making a very quick hopefully it's a decision but maybe sometimes it's judgment and i'm asking myself does this fit into my world view or not meaning is it is it in my circle of confidence can i have a very simple way of looking at this is it going to fix something in equality that i think is important or is it going to fix something in climate change that i think is important those are the only two things i care about inequality climate change under inequality there's a bunch of stuff financial equality is important health care equality is important education equality is important so it allows me to organize a lot of different opportunities and i'm trying to figure out is there a consumer proposition here that's important for them does it make something more symmetric does it take something that was asymmetric and fix it so that's my first judgment which is qualitative that's why whenever i start my one pagers it's always what is the strategy and you can read all of these one pages now and what you'll get away from them is the first lens is equality and or climate change then i start to do the fundamental and you know this is where i have a real issue with a lot of people who say that they're value investors i think that i'm a value history um the thing is that when you look up the word value in the dictionary it doesn't mean cheap it doesn't mean a cigar but with two puffs you know that famous buffett longer kid i think it actually means something that has value and so then i'm really thinking about you know what are the cash flows of this business how does it create a moat right meaning in software some technological way that's hard for people to compete with it and then can i get it for a price where there's a margin of safety where if they miss execute for a quarter or if they have a little hiccup it's gonna be okay because you know we've got an entry point where five or ten years from now this thing will be five to ten times bigger and that's how we think about all these things and if you look at the deals that i've done they kind of map pretty singularly one to one to that framework so let's use a real world example obviously this is not the kind of deal you're doing but if you look at tesla today through that lens is that stock a buy with a market cap north of 800 billion dollars uh i mean the short answer is yes um the reason is that i think people it took people look i bought tesla in 2014 or 15.
i was one of the largest owners of the convertible debt you know i felt that that was the best margin of safety weight of that on tesla it's turned out to be an enormous winner and i really believe in what elon is doing i think he's the most important entrepreneur of our of our lifetime it's taken people 15 years to embrace um that they're going to be now a legitimate car company but when i underwrote the investment my bet was on something bigger and i think that elon is well past building a car company and i think it'll take another five or ten years for people to figure out what this next arc of innovation is and what that is is the deregulation of energy if you look under the hood you know utilities spend tens of billions of dollars hundreds of billions of dollars a year all around the world on campus they are completely regulated they feel completely safe they feel like they can issue debt ad nauseum you know they can cause all kinds of damage into the environment or otherwise look at pg e and still come away unscathed because they're protected except that something is happening that nobody forecasted which is the complete bottoms-up disruption of energy and that's the only way that this thing is going to get deregulated it's not going to be by law or dictate it's not going to be you know a big monolithic competitor it's going to be because every home installs hydro panels solar panels batteries and then software that basically allows them to live off the grid and then eventually pump their excess energy into battery solutions and other things that are controlled by cities and towns and governments who then in turn will turn off their usage of peakers at a minimum and then over time we'll have very different characteristics of usage from traditional utilities that is what tesla is powering that is what allows it to be a multi-trillion dollar company so it doesn't have the same return profile as when i bought it at what is equivalently now 25 or 30 bucks a short well obviously not but can it be multiples higher than where it is today absolutely one of the things buffett did was effectively hold forever i put his permanent capital to work and almost never sold is that you as well is the money that you have in whether it's virgin galactic or clover health or open door or sofi permanent capital that you're never taking out um yes but within aspects but you know buffett became a billionaire at 58.
i because of facebook quite honestly got extremely lucky in my early 30s um but this last decade has been training and you know these last few years now i'm really on the field i've got my pads on and i feel like i can play as good as anybody else um but the reality is all of the things i want to do um vastly outweighs the capital that i have you know probably i'm you know running 10 plus billion dollars 10 15 billion i don't know the exact number to be completely honest i should um but i am risk on and i am moving a lot of balls down the field myself and my teeth um and the reality is that those things sometimes consume capital so at the end of last year you know my family office called and said hey uh dummy uh you know you need to put a little bit of money here just to like make sure that we have liquidity and we can keep doing all these things and so i had to sell you know a couple million shares of virtue um i didn't want to i haven't sold a single share of anything uh that i've done uh in this back platform um in the pipes other than the those few million shares so if given my brothers eric and if like you know um if i if i could if i could really just go for it uh i wouldn't sell a share of anything i buy because i believe but every now and then i run up into liquidity constraints like everybody else and i get a call and they say c'mon stop slow down and i say no and then they say okay then at least give us give us a little buffer here so that we can continue to do all of this is the 10 to 15 billion dollars you're marshaling is that money inside social capital or is that in total does that include what you're doing in your family office and personal holdings that you may have and say bitcoin at tesla or amazon or facebook or whatever i know it's like the totality of everything but it's like sloshing around in a bunch of like llc like this is the thing like like social capital is more of a name you know meaning is it an entity yeah technically there's a company with the name social capital on it but you know everything is flow through a byzantine bunch of llc's and this and that that i personally own this is why you know part of the work now that i have to do this year is reorganize this so you know social capital 1.0 was a traditional um set of venture funds called social capital um social capital 2.0 is basically my family office but and for social capital 3.0 to become a reality which i would like to do in the next couple of years i have to do some cleanup work and again this is sort of like you know when when uh when the music's on you have to be dancing and so i haven't had time to do that because you know i see opportunities and i want to seize them and i want to invest thinking that i'll just come back and clean up whatever organizational mess is created you
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