저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
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결론: 그랜섬은 현재 시장이 버블 상태이며 가치주에 대한 확신이 없고, 저성장·인플레이션 위험 속에서 그린에너지 관련 종목이 유망하다고 본다. 버블 및 가치주 관련: 성장주가 강세장 동안 가치주를 약 400bp 앞섰으며, 버블 붕괴 후에도 성장주가 앞설 수 있어 가치 투자자에게 보상이 없을 수 있다고 경고한다. 가치 지표에 대한 견해: 주가순자산비율(P/B), PER, 주가현금흐름비율 등 단순 지표는 진정한 가치의 척도가 아니며, 저PER·저P/B 종목은 시장이 가장 나쁘게 본 자산이라고 주장한다. 인플레이션 우려: 산출과 무관하게 화폐를 찍어내면 결국 20년간 보지 못한 인플레이션이 올 수 있으며, 식량·핵심 금속 등 원자재 가격이 상승 중이라고 지적한다. 인구 및 성장률: 노동인구 증가율이 0 이하로 떨어지는 구조적 전환점에 있어 장기 성장률이 둔화된다고 본다. 자산배분: 제로금리·부양책·생산성 둔화·인플레이션 가능성 속에서 분산투자가 큰 이점이며, 신흥국 저성장 주식은 합리적 대안이라고 제시한다. 그린에너지: 재생에너지·전력화·전기차 등은 탈탄소화에 수조 달러가 필요하여 매출이 크게 성장할 것이며, 기후변화 펀드가 유망하다고 평가한다. 비트코인: 배당 흐름이 없어 펀더멘털 가치가 0에 가깝고, 가격은 전적으로 더 큰 바보에게 팔 수 있느냐에 달려 있다고 비판한다. 책임 및 리스크: 그린스펀·버냉키의 자산가격 부양 정책(도덕적 해이)을 과열의 원인으로 지목하며, 주가 평균회귀 시 역(逆)의 부(富)효과가 경기를 짓누를 것이라 경고한다. 출연자 전망: 현재 시장은 버블이며 장기적으로 그린에너지·신흥국 저성장주가 상대적으로 유리하다는 장기 관점이다.
다듬은 글
it comes in at just the time you don't need it and it sucks out of the economy a negative wealth effect grammy growth stocks have over the course of the bull market outperformed value stocks by almost 400 basis points what if after the bubble pops growth is still ahead and there is no redemption for the value investor what happens if that happens then there'll be a lot of sad value matches now the question is will it happen and it would be historically unprecedented with that to happen and pretty certainly will not however having said that let me say one thing about value i have no confidence and have not had any for over 20 years in price to book and pe and price cash flow price of sales even as a measure of true value a measure of true value is the long term discounted value of the future stream of dividends a growth stock is of course worth a higher ratio of this that and the other than the low growth stock but that doesn't mean they can't be overpriced so value should be cheap for what you are you should build in the growth you should build in the quality and if it's overpriced it's overpriced but to use a simple-minded measure of book is a crazy idea a cheap book is the market vote on the worst assets out there in the marketplace the lowest pe is the markets vote on the worst earnings most likely to be overstated or downgraded and the same with yield it's the market's vote of the most likely to be cut these have no business being a good indicator of future performance besides cash and value and emerging market stocks is there anywhere else for an investor to hide i'm also worried by the way about inflation if you think you live in a world where output doesn't matter and you can just create paper sooner or later you're going to do the impossible and that is bring back inflation that we haven't seen for 20 years and and you keep it up on a global basis you will you will have inflation and and i can't help but notice that around the world the commodity prices of all of all kinds really but particularly critical uh food and and critical metals are going up and if you have that happening and you have a rapidly declining growth rate in in the workforce um towards zero and negative uh you're really set up for this time is different so we are not just in in a bubble market but we're looking at a global economy that is at an inflection point uh to turn down in in long-term growth rates so this is this is a bad time to be caught the speculation what is the right way to allocate irrespective of the bubble what is the right way to allocate in a world of zero rates stimulus ad fin item declining productivity the potential for inflation and the list goes on yeah first of all very difficult and secondly of course diversifying it's always a huge advantage and thirdly amazingly um the low growth stocks in in the emerging market world are are perfectly reasonable if you if you need to own stocks and most people do that would be a perfectly a good way to go and i also think shares the benefit from the greening of the economy will do much better than the rest anything to do with renewable energy the electrification of the system electric cars etc these are all going to have top-line revenues that dwarf the declining growth rate of the recipe of the global economy it will take trillions of dollars to to decarbonize the global system it will dominate everyone's portfolio and if you have to own of us stops they're the ones to earn and look around for for a good climate change fund i'm happy to say gmo has one and and they're doing very well now that the focus is clearly finally took 20 years to wake up in the last year people really are beginning to understand the size of the problem and the need to move money in into greening the economy jeremy you've invested in gold before do you see any promise as a growing number of investors do in bitcoin or other forms of cryptocurrency what what is the future value of the dividend stream of bitcoin i can tell you that that doesn't take a prize-winning mathematician it is nil it will never pay you a dividend if you're desperate can you eat it no you can't its entire value is on the greater full is it now so bitcoin could be worth a million dollars a unit if you can find someone to pay so let me ask you this who or what do you hold most responsible for the excesses of the present mania i ironically i i'm tempted to say alan greenspan only because he set us on this course of talking and and acting along the lines of moral hazard he bragged that he had contributed to the strength of the economy through the wealth effect there is indeed a wealth if you have the market double three or four percent of that gets spent and helps the economy he was right and he bragged about it and then following him that bernanke bragged about that they had contributed to the health of the economy and they have and now the fed also brags that it has done its part and it's helped encourage the economy through through high asset prices all of it's true the bad news however is we live in a world that is in the end a real world of people and production and in the end therefore despite alan greenspan's enormous willingness to create a new permanent golden era of productivity et cetera et cetera the the s p still came down the nasdaq still burst and went down 82 despite his fanatical uh interest in moral houses and helping out stock market prices the point is they did not brag of the negative effect of the market mean reverting back to normal it comes in at just the time you don't need it and it sucks out of the economy a negative wealth effect and as it will this time you
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