저자: JimCramer/PaulMeeks · 외국인
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Jim Cramer는 젠슨 황과 Jonathan Ross(Groq) 대담 내용을 근거로 엔비디아가 향후 3년간 10배 상승할 수 있다고 주장. 엔비디아가 HBM·광케이블 등 공급망을 선점해 경쟁사에 불리하다고 평가. DOJ 반독점 조사 이슈로 주가가 하락했으나 일시적 헤드라인 리스크로 봄. Paul Meeks는 재차 하락 시 적극 매수 기회로 보며 성장 전망이 여전히 밝다고 언급.
다듬은 글
this is the primary cause of my prediction that nvidia's stock will increase tenfold over the next three years hbm in their design choices these particular optical cables and a host of other reasons since Nvidia has purchased them all you will be in a very tough situation you traveled abroad where have you been this week I was in France in Paris why did you go there for around 45 minutes at the start of a significant AI conference Jonathan rth the creator of grock and I engaged in a Fireside talk to get everyone enthusiastic cool yes that was quite fascinating does anything intriguing emerge from it I believe Jonathan's sound bite was the one that really got to me he did a great job in my opinion of outlining video's strengths which are in learning and inference where the company is attempting to expand its business however I believe that was a clear explanation of the issue which is that that the features practically fight with one another between learning and inference second he stated that by the end of the following year he will have 50% of the available inference computed if he implements his road map whoa considering all of the requirements of opena meta and everyone else which is wait a lower physical footprint is that correct and that's only because they can perform all of the main models with higher tokens per second while using less power therefore it would be significantly less expensive and require less electricity that was a really great sound bite then his reasoning was sound in its entirety thus if you pay attention to these yes we did it was good but this was even better in my opinion since the discussion was recorded I'm attempting to obtain a copy so that we can share it in some way anyone interested in learning more about Nvidia should at least hear what he has to say since in my opinion the differences between us and them are rather significant and the way he explained them was quite Stark it was cool then to be honest it was wonderful to be in Paris how does Nvidia react to this trend or the idea that there is a completely distinct chip category that is solely concerned with inference is there a different road map they need to start up right now or are they working on inference focused chips it's really difficult for them I believe it's a problem for structural innovators what's the reason behind that due to the architectural choices they have made regarding things like high bandwidth memory hbm or particular types of extremely high throughput optical cables these things are significant because they have essentially bare hugged these markets as a structural component of their design and have gone on to acquire the global Supply now that's totally legal and makes sense the problem is that if you architect around it and go through a totally orthogonal design process you're not subject to any of those supply chain considerations and I think he explained that really well I didn't understand it in nearly as much detail as I did leaving so I think that's an important takeaway it's also really important for all the hundreds of Chip startups and for these Venture investors who are ripping money into these companies to know these differences because if you are investing in a company that is subject to you know hbm in their design decisions or these specific optical cables or a whole bunch of other things you're going to be in a really difficult spot because nvidia's bought them all so I thought that that was really interesting the other thing that Nvidia does brilliantly is what Intel did in the 80s and 90s when they wanted to kind of Choke the market for CPU competition which is that they were able to define a metric that everybody started to pay attention to which for them was clock speed and if you remember Intel would push Mo's law and they would push transistor density and clock speed as the measurement of value now for a lot of consumers none of us knew any better and so every time we saw a new chip we would go through the Pentium upgrading cycle because we thought that's what we were supposed to do it turns out that clock speed doesn't actually figure into speed the way that you think about it and experience it as an end user using software and it's the same with AI and so he talked about that as well so it's an immensely important company I believe nigia is doing incredibly well they are employing many of the same strategies as Intel in an attempt to establish complete dominance but there are some crucial details regarding power supply chain choices and technological advancements that to be honest some people would consider unsustainable the more I learn about them the more I agree with that view point so I thought it was a very important conversation and hopefully we can post it that's a nice way to remember the Nvidia investors who the reason I'm smiling is because of what I'm coming up to here thinking about Elizabeth Warren IIA made a suggestion during the most recent earnings call that if these expenses do increase gross margins may be dropping to the mid 7s the stock is down roughly 20% from its recent high but it's still up more than 130% over the past year as we follow these reports of the do targeting the tech giant we continue to watch Nvidia today which is now in positive territory nearly a full percent after that steep drop that historic drop yesterday semma Modi has the most recent information on that hello SEMA it was a historic drop Carly the video fell as much as 9% yesterday due to broader growth issues and worries about a doj investigation according to reports antitrust authorities are investigating whether Nvidia is punishing customers who do not only use his AI Hardware that's according to Bloomberg quoting sources familiar the chipmaker responded saying quote Nvidia wins on Merit as reflected in our Benchmark results and value to customers who can choose whatever solution is best for them the question now that the market is trying to answer is whether this report this suuma now turns into a formal complaint against the company so here's what Wall Street is saying so far perston stacy rascon says it's too early to quantify the potential regulatory risk that points to earlier cases in Intel and AMD the FTC taking on Qualcomm than broadcom he claims that while it all generated anxiety at the time none of them had a significant long-term effect therefore it is now being treated as a headline risk taking a step back and looking at how the upcoming election could impact Tech and antitrust M Dee former anti-rust Chief telling CNBC quote the elections will likely not change the doj's continued focus on Anti-Trust enforcement in Tech but likely will affect the process for merger reviews allowing for what he says will be quicker resolutions where available where remedies are available weater looking at Nvidia shares rallying today guys what is the worst case scenario here is it a chip a mini chip or Fisher in the moat the grand mode around Vidia look the Moe is what Jensen Nvidia have created right and that's not going to change and I can almost take the other side okay this is being investigated by the doj let them investigate and provide an all clear so that there is no cause for concern I mean look what we've dealt with with the likes of Apple Google Amazon and some others for you know for a number of years but I don't think it changes that and I think the reality is they are the only game in town and nothing's changing that from an innovation perspective when you talk about a trillion dollars of AI capex over the coming years where Nvidia is going to get a significant piece of that in just this political climate though Dan where you have two candidates and their vice presidents almost feel like it's a competition of who can have the most populist policies and then you look at something like Google getting slapped for Anti-Trust violations too is this a political climate that maybe needs to take a second look at some of these big Tech names that we thought were safe from antitrust regulation and scrutiny and maybe this time is different joining us right now with his outlook for the sector in squawk pick is Paul Meeks he's Harvest portfolio management CIO and up Paul how are you feeling about this in the aftermath so what I think is going to happen is we'll have a repeat of what happened only a month ago and so if you take a look at the Belle weather stock Nvidia a month ago it did close at about 98 or 99 even got lower than that in early August in the intraday move and so we'll see how it goes I imagine that we'll retest and if we successfully retest that then I'd probably go in and become an aggressive buyer again since we received their quarterly earnings report and other data in the past month or so the company is still growing at a very good rate even though it will undoubtedly slow down a little the Outlook is very bright and I think the only thing that's really new that changes the thesis I don't really think it changes it at all is the sapuna that they've received from the Department of Justice which is typical in the technology sector when angry competitors start complaining to the government so I actually think it's a pretty good buying opportunity after the Smoke Clears here and I hope it's fairly soon as of right now the stocks
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