Earnings growth next year will be double digits: Markets bull Tom Lee

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2019년 11월 시장 강세 전망 토론. 결론: 내년 실적 성장이 두 자릿수일 것이며 선거·무역 불확실성이 지나면 상승 여지가 크다는 낙관론. Tom Lee는 내년 어닝 성장률이 두 자릿수를 넘고, 산업재·기초소재·에너지 실적 반등이 전환점이라고 주장. 이 경우 실적 성장 5.5%와 멀티플 확장이 기대된다고 봄. 다른 패널은 실적 전망(10~12%)이 사실상 기대치에 반영돼 있다고 보고, 무역합의 실패·선거 결과·연준 금리인하 기대(40bp) 미달 등 하방 시나리오를 경고함. 상방은 제한적이고 하방은 상당할 수 있다는 우려. 반론으로 자금 흐름상 주식에서 현금이 계속 빠져나가고 있으며 투자자 공포가 시장을 억누르고 있다고 봄. 국채금리 수준을 감안하면 S&P500 멀티플(약 16.5배)은 18~20배까지 높아질 수 있어 최악의 시나리오는 이미 반영됐다고 평가. 2019년 S&P500이 2013년 이후 최고 수준의 해를 보내며 포지셔닝과 심리가 장기간 방어적이었다는 점을 언급. 투자자들이 리스크 회피 상태이므로 상승 전환 시 추가 자금 유입 가능성을 제시. 출연자 전망: Tom Lee는 강세 유지, 다른 패널은 조건부 낙관(하방 리스크 경계). 리스크: 무역 협상 불발, 선거 불확실성, 연준 완화 기대 미달.

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01. what is your earnings growth forecasts for next year I think next year earnings growth will actually be more than double digits but Wow part of it is the idea that this like if you look at industrial earnings and basic materials and even energy though smoking yeah they've just been whipping for more than a year yeah I think that that's the turn that's coming so I think that would be very powerful I mean my expectation is you get five and a half percent you get some multiple expansion and that's would I just want to check and see what's it what are you drinking if you look at the facts at numbers they're exactly what Tom saying they're like 10 to 12 percent expectations for growth for earnings growth next year so you know if we get past the election and the bumpiness and them in the middle of it we should have really decent earnings coming in so once we get past it we can move on yeah we can start there's the beauty of it you can have your own special fireworks I'm going to consider them like sparklers that you know 3,200 what if we don't get a trade deal what if we don't get the election outcome we want what if the market is not right on the Fed markets expecting 40 basis points more of cuts what if everything doesn't play out in the Goldilocks storybook ending right what is the downside versus what is the upside if it plays out right and I think what Steve's saying with Jim saying what I'm saying is the upside feels like it's a little more capped the downside if this doesn't play out as expect it feels significant and that's yeah I mean that it's hard to know yeah it is it's Rob is the key question I think all that is discounted in sp30 50 is a low probability of a trade deal no cyclical upturn no industrial cycle bottoming I think the market is priced in a lot of these concerns so I think if we do get it we get we have an asymmetric upside okay I think the downside is limited just because of where credit is and where the Fed is and you know and where positioning is it sounds like I think there's a lot of cash on the side you know I'm sure there's a lot of cash on the sidelines and if you just look at fund flows alone it stuns me every time I see it how much money continues to pour out of equities and then whenever I'm talking to new clients or even existing clients nobody's happy right everybody everyone getting in with cash is terrified that they're buying at a top everyone who's in is nervous but at the top there's a lot of fear that's holding the whole thing back so I think I think Tom's right like I think it's priced in at this spring that's a little cool in theory you know with Treasury yields where they are the multiple on the S&P should be a lot higher than it is so if you say if you think maybe eighteen to twenty times trading at about sixteen and a half times would would suggest that a lot of worst-case scenarios priced in I mean you would think given all of the risks that have been in front of us for the entire year we're positioning and sentiment has been for the bulk of the entire year we're having the best year for the S&P since C it's if you took out 2013 it's the best in almost 23 years it means in everyone's career I mean people managing money for 23 years haven't seen a market this good and that's why I think there's a signal coming from what the markets telling us I think the cycles turning and you know I think people have priced in a lot about allocators have to decide when they want to hit the break tap the break there's a lot of decisions that go into this and part of its a function of how far you've traveled a lot of them have been riding the break that's not been us we've been there we just recently so I'm not I'm not saying you in general I'm just saying okay all that that's been a fan riding the break that's a factual statement and that's why you have this potential uncoiled spring that's gonna go to launch people launch the market higher and give more people drawn in right good stuff good you see thanks for great to see y'all you