저자: DanIves · 외국인
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결론: 빅테크, 특히 AI 관련 기술주 강세장이 이어질 것이라는 낙관론이며 Ives는 실적 발표마다 상승 촉매를 기대한다고 말함. 중국 및 애플: 중국 둔화 우려에도 애플은 아이폰 시장점유율을 약 3% 높이고 있으며 ASP 상승과 상위 중산층 수요가 원인이라고 설명. 이번 주 아이폰 15 출시 기대감이 부각될 것이라 전망. 아마존 및 클라우드: 아마존은 AI에서 MS·구글보다 다소 뒤처져 있으나 클라우드 실적 호조를 예상. 빅테크 전반의 실적이 개선되고 있다고 평가. 빅테크 전망: 신기술 강세장이 시작됐다고 보며 비용 절감 효과가 2024년 실적에 반영될 것이라 전망. AI를 제4차 산업혁명, 골드러시로 규정. 팔란티어: 정부 외에 상업 고객 성장이 핵심이며 순수 AI 플레이로 가장 유망하다고 평가. 실적 발표 전 주가 약 5% 상승 언급. 리스크 및 하반기: 매그니피센트 7 중 상대적으로 덜 강세인 종목으로 아마존을 지목, 하반기 기술주 12~15% 상승 전망. 약세론자들은 여전히 잠잠하다고 언급.
다듬은 글
you're really focusing on China we've been talking about a Slowdown in China just you know earlier in the show um some data coming in soft but there are some stimulus efforts expected to come down the line what is China's slowdown mean for Apple a company that really focuses on China for growth I mean Cupertino really the hearts and lungs of the growth story have been Apple for them is really China if you look China that story we see an uptick that's really happening 300 bits of market share that we're seeing from an iPhone perspective so you're seeing a Slowdown But ultimately in terms of cook and Cupertino we're actually seeing an uptick and I think that's gonna be front and center later this week especially as we go into the drum roll for iPhone 15.
you know it's interesting so you're saying they're gaining market share when it comes to iPhones iPhones you know higher price point uh mobile phone in China they have a lot of lower price point ones what's pushing this gain in market share I mean you're really seeing much more of a push on asps so you're seeing more and more every selling price average selling price you're seeing I I say upper middle income within China One in that iPhone that's why you're seeing those sharigans and also it comes down to the chip and some of the software they've introduced there's been another Flex to muscles moment for this unparalleled install base all right I want to talk about Amazon now specifically when it comes to the hyperscaler business so we saw Google Cloud report growth in the hyperscaler business we also saw meta actually boosted spending in the so-called year of efficiency when it comes to AI we're talking staff and data centers what are you expecting when it comes to Amazon when it comes to Ai and also Cloud growth look no doubt I mean they're a little behind the eight ball when it comes to AI if you look what Nadella and Microsoft have done and of course Google and what we've seen from Korean out there and I think that was on display last week I think for jassy it's really showing that there are going to be an AI player you have seen some share losses I think from Microsoft from Google but I'm expecting a cloud beat I think this is going to be the theme Here is that despite many of the Bears come out of hibernate Nation mode a little during earnings you've seen Cloud Flex their muscles and if you look at big Tech this is really had the bull smile and I think this is going to be in just another Thursday night spectacle for the Bulls that really shows a big tack earnings is starting to see an uptick and I think that's the important thing so what is Amazon's report possibly tell us about big Tech overall because they have such a diversified business there's not only the cloud business there's the retail e-commerce business there's also some ad business in there and of course we're all kind of waiting to hear their next development when it comes to AI specifically when it comes to Amazon what is it going to tell us about big Tech and the potential of this rally continuing you've been one of the most bullish on big Tech and the Magnificent Seven stronger getting stronger I mean in our opinion the new tech bull market is underway despite many yelling fire in a crowd theater and I think what we're going to see here is that you're seeing numbers move up especially even in 2024 the cost cutting ripped a Band-Aid off has been a benefit you've I think you'll see that on display with Amazon I think when it comes to AI we are in a fourth Industrial Revolution I think this is an AI Gold Rush that's starting out not just big cat Tech you can name it's like palantir the messy of AI and some others so in my opinion this is just just start get out the popcorn for big tax you know your front runner I didn't want to ask you about palantir you call palantir the messy of AI obviously referencing the international soccer star what do you expecting from this report what can they say that we haven't already heard they've already told us that the leader in AI we know they're working with the government we know they're gaining commercial customers what else can they tell us that we haven't already seen it's really about showing not just on the government side but commercial success and I think that's really what I think is the golden Jewel for them is that parlaying the success in the 202 area code to AI now more on the Enterprise because that's really where the Gold Rush is as a pure play they're the best Pure Play AI name out there which is why they are the Messier of AI and I think this fourth Industrial Revolution they are going to be a major player along with big Tech I want to put you on the spot we're showing the palantir chart by the way palantir shows up five percent right now in the pre-market we just showed a wall of The Magnificent Seven in the year to date our performance outperforming the market by far which one of those if you had to pick one do you see as the most likely to cool down in the second half no yeah I'm gonna I'm cornering you on this one no long explanations you got to pick one of The Magnificent Seven that you're less bullish on look I think if you look at Amazon because ultimately my view of where they are in the cloud versus nadellon Redmond as well as Google if there's one that's going to cool down it would be that one but I do believe tech stocks are up 12 to 15 second half of the year the Bears continue to go into hibernation mode and the thing is to get out the popcorn time for the Bulls
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