저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
미국 증시가 최근 조정을 받았지만 장기 상승 흐름은 유효하다는 시각. Shiller PE는 약 40으로 역사적 평균(17.3) 대비 고평가, 공포탐욕지수 26(극단적 공포 근접), VIX 23.4로 변동성 확대. S&P500 50일 EMA 지지 여부가 핵심이며 볼린저 밴드상 단기 추가 하락 가능성 언급. 자체 엑셀 건강도 점수는 62.4(목표 150)로 매우 낮음. 금은 사상 최고치 근처이며 개인적으로 소액 적립매수 중. S&P500은 연말 7,000 도달 전망, 1~2주 횡보 후 상승 예상.
다듬은 글
Tom Lee is currently saying that this recent sell-off in the US market is a buying opportunity. However, on the other hand, we have articles where Jamie Diamond is warning of more credit trouble ahead. Essentially saying when you see one cockroach, there's plenty more to come. So, where are we actually right now with the US market?
Where can we expect this to go? Is it actually time to liquidate all of your positions and get the hell out of it? or is there potential for this to actually continue its run that we've seen since April and actually maybe potentially buy more? Well, in this video, we're going to be trying to figure out exactly this.
We're going to be looking at the macroeconomics, the technical indicators, and some chart analysis to see where exactly we should be placing our money for the remainder of 2025. So, off the rip, I know that you're probably thinking, "What on earth is going on with your hair today?" Listen, when I put a hat on, basically, we get glitter under it.
Um, so maybe maybe we leave the hat on and you just deal with it. Um, if you like glitter then I guess there's no issue. So looking here on Schiller's PE ratio, we can see that this is currently coming in at near 40. Now obviously it is earning season currently is the very start of it and we are expecting some relatively good earnings to come out of it.
However, in my head this is still massively too high. So the mean of this is at 17.29 and we're currently at 39.8. So markets look historically very overvalued right now. However, if we do look over the last 10 year period, we have seen this actually just continue to rally actually since the.com bubble way back here in 2008.
Uh and of course um the massive issues with mortgages in the US as well. So where are we with fear and greed? Well, this is currently at 26 pushing on to extreme fear. This is not good at all. However, um it depends on what sort of investor you are. If you're a long-term investor, then this is the time to be buying.
But we're not actually seeing stocks drop too far. Now, this is the S&P, and we've seen a relatively mediocre fall. It was around a 2% fall late Friday, and now is starting to rise back up, but there is a lot of volatility in the air. If we look at the EMAs, then we are bouncing just off this 50-day EMA right here, which in my head is actually really sustainable.
So, I see this as a positive thing currently. However, if it does drop below this 50-day, I think there will be issues to come. If we look on a Ballinger band basis, we are now at the moment, as of recording this, below the 20-day SMA, indicating that we are still looking as if we're going to see the stock market continue to fall towards the tail end of this week and potentially the early start of next week.
Obviously, very dependent on what actually happens over the weekend. And if we do look at the VIX, this is currently at 23.4. And when we're in a Trump presidency, anything bel above a 19 is essentially high. Um, so we are well and truly into a volatile area currently. Furthermore, gold gold is still pushing an all-time high.
I think it went up 2% today, which is absolutely incredible. I do hold a bit of gold. I'm dollar cost averaging into both gold and the S&P, of course. Um, they are very small positions for me right now. I am more of an individual stock uh investor, but that's a long-term game for me. So, for these investments right now, I'm happy.
I'm happy to continue dollar cost averaging into gold, potentially moving it into silver. I'm not sure. Uh and of course, the S&P, this is a great buying opportunity for longterm gains. Markets bouncing back after Friday's drop. Joining us now, Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors and Fundstrat Capital CIO.
Tom, just summarizing um what your thoughts are this morning. I don't see a whole lot that that has shaken your confidence that the market's headed up. You still see 7,000 on the S&P by year end. You do point out uh it's it's not cheap. Up 36% since the April lows. Um you do outline some headwinds, but I think you're outlining more positives than uh than negatives for the markets even right now.
Yeah. In fact, I think JP Morgan's announcement today uh really ties into why investors should stay pretty constructive on the US. I mean, JP Morgan, the biggest and one of the and the most powerful bank in the world, is investing a trillion and a half dollars into the US into things that are going to strengthen sort of US advantages, you know, critically important areas.
And at a time when the US is dominating AI and of course now we have this big tailwind as as blockchain is an initiative that Wall Street is is building products on. So I I think there's a lot of reasons for investors to stay optimistic and I know there's a lot of talk about bubbles but I think the thing I would just continue to point out is Nvidia trades at around 27 times Ford earnings.
It's still on a PE basis cheaper than Walmart and Costco which trade at around 47 and 34 times Ford earnings. Yeah, we've got you you've got positive um reasons to think that earnings are are going to do well in a time when interest rates are coming down. So that that's just like an elixir for stocks that that uh is very powerful.
That's right. And as you know, CEOs have not been that confident for the last two and a half years because the Fed's been running tight monetary policy. The ISM's been below 50 for 31 months now. That's the longest stretch in history. Um, I think the sell-off Friday is giving us a bit of a gift because that surge in the VIX 32% rise is the 39th highest ever 1day surge and the one month median return is almost 3% um of the 38 other instances.
So I think the S&P could add you know 200 points between today and and mid November. So it is clear that Tom Lee is very bullish on the market currently saying that um essentially monetary policy has been deeply affecting where CEO confidence has been over the last 2 years. But what does my system actually say for where the US market currently is on a health basis.
So this is my Excel spreadsheet in which I have developed probably around 6 months ago and I haven't really looked at it since June to be honest. I've kind of been out of the whole YouTube game recently. So, I've had no reason to look at this. I've been very very busy and I am trying to get back into YouTube.
So, hit a like and subscribe. Um, give me a bit of um motivation essentially to get back into this. So, this um takes into account a lot of things such as treasury yields, fund rates, supply growth, uh just everything, consumer sentiment and unemployment. And essentially at the end of this, I get a health score um based off of all of these um these factors.
And the healthy target is 150. Now, that's the maximum. Obviously, you're not expecting to be at the maximum. However, right now, as of recording this on the 16th of October, the health score is down at 62.4. So, why why is it so low? Well, we will try and find out in a minute. But if we look back on historic timelines here, if I move my head, it's that's the that's not my head.
If we move my head, it's this thing uh just here. Uh we can see that historically based off of what I did back in May and June, I know it's been a while, so this isn't really the best data, but it is historically very low right now. So one reason in which we could potentially be seeing this score so low is the industrial production index.
Now the score from the recent quarter was at 0.1%. And this essentially suggests contraction and if it continues for more than two quarters, it can signal early signs of recessions. Now that is really not what we want. However, there is still ideal um um macroeconomics here such as the GDP growth rate.
This is coming in at a score of 1.17% which is really quite healthy with the ideal being at 0.75. I don't really want to go through all of this because I can imagine it is quite boring but there is more data which is quite bad. uh such as here the uh capital cap sorry the capacity utilization rate. Uh I will just quickly scroll through these if you do want to have a quick look.
Um but I don't want to I've also just realized my my face is right in the middle of the screen so that really doesn't help but um you're going to have to deal with it I'm afraid. But yeah, there's a lot here in which is really not ideal for the US market right now. Some things are good, some things are very bad, but the majority of things aren't looking particularly great right now.
So, as of today, markets aren't doing particularly well. Micron, one of my favorite stocks, is actually up 5%. So, I'm doing okay today. However, I'm I am personally being brought down by a lot of my other positions. Uh, so last week before Friday, or pretty much on Friday, my portfolio for the year to date was up 37% and now it's around 30.
So, I have been hit quite hard by this recent drop off, but it is to be expected and in my head it's not necessarily even a bad thing. It's just um sustainability coming through. You need a quick correction for more growth. That was quite a big correction granted. However, I am still perfectly happy with this and I am still expecting growth for the remainder of this year.
So, let's just get into my personal opinion on this. So, um obviously right now it is volatile. It's hard to say where it's going to go. And anyone who says they know where it's going to go is pretty much lying to you because it's unless they can read the future and know what news articles are going to be coming out over the next few days and months and weeks, um, they're lying because no one really knows.
You can use indicators and charts as much as you like, but it's hard to predict the future. So, where I think it's going to go, and this sounds ironic being what I just said, is I think we will close off towards the 7,000 mark in the S&P 500 for the remainder of 2025. Um, it's not going to be as quick the the growth um as we have seen in the last couple of months.
However, I still think this is going to climb. we might see uh potentially one to two more weeks of sideways action and volatility. But from there, depending of course what happens with these Chinese potential 100% tariffs, which seems very unlikely in my in my mind, um we will see this continue to rally up.
Obviously, we are seeing articles now such as uh the Fed potentially uh cutting down another point with uh Christopher Waller calling for this, but obviously he he then has massive competition uh and opposition in the Fed chair uh the Fed chair, sorry, Jerome Pal. It's been a while since I've recorded a video and I I just ran out of breath there um talking.
So, that's essentially where I think the US market is going to head. Okay, so that is going to conclude this video. So, I hope it has been somewhat useful. I know it is just mostly my opinion and this is certainly not financial advice and should not be taken as such. If you are looking for financial advice, please consult a professional financial adviser and that is not me, I'm afraid.
Uh, so I hope you have enjoyed this video. Let me know where you think the US market is going to head in the next coming weeks to the end of 2025. I would be really interested to know your opinions. With that being said, I will see you for the next video hopefully soon.
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