저자: MarkMobius · 외국인
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신흥시장 투자 권위자 Mark Mobius가 Fox Business 인터뷰에서 우크라이나 전쟁 이후 유럽·러시아·인도·미국 시장에 대한 견해를 밝힘. 유럽 전반은 상황이 나빠 투자 대상으로 적절하지 않다고 봄. 다만 개별 기업(명품 등)은 양호하다고 언급. 유럽 중에서는 튀르키예를 선호한다고 밝힘. 튀르키예는 러시아와 유럽 사이 가교 역할로 수혜를 볼 것이라 주장. 지진 등 단기 악재에도 튀르키예인의 회복력을 근거로 투자 매력이 유지된다고 봄. 인터뷰 중 iShares 튀르키예 ETF(TUR)가 1년간 70% 상승했다는 언급이 있었음. 러시아는 투자 금지 구역(no touch)으로 평가. 자금 유출입이 불가능해 전쟁이 끝나기 전까지는 고려 대상이 아니라고 함. 동유럽 인접국들도 전쟁 확산 시 직접 위험에 노출되어 피하는 것이 좋다고 봄. 인도 관련: 아다니 그룹 논란(힌덴버그 리서치 공매도 보고서)은 단발성 사건이며 인도 전체의 구조적 문제로 보지 않음. 인도는 젊은 인구(평균 연령 26~27세, 중국 37세 대비), 기술 도입, 소프트웨어 강점, 반도체 제조 허브로의 부상을 근거로 세계에서 가장 큰 미개척 투자 기회라고 강조. 러시아산 저렴한 원유 수입 수혜도 언급. 미국 시장: 미국 시장은 유동성과 수익성이 높은 기업이 많고 개별 종목 선별이 중요하다고 함. 우크라이나 전쟁에 따른 군비 증강으로 록히드마틴 등 방산주 수혜를 언급. 당일 다우 대폭 하락 상황에 대해서는 구체적 전망을 제시하지 않음. 진행자는 방산주 강세에 대해 언급하며 인터뷰를 마무리함.
다듬은 글
Ukrainian president Volo Jamir lazilinski also warning of a possible World War should that meeting between Chinese leaders Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin come to pass Beijing says that the meeting is a push for multi-party peace talks not an alliance but with so much turmoil heading to our East what kind of overarching impact does this conflict have on one of the big investor buzzwords this year Emerging Markets let's bring in Mark Mobius he is the guru of Emerging Markets with more than 30 years of experience in the space more than one million miles traveled during his life and 40 billion in managed assets he joins me now in a fox business exclusive well let's start with Europe Mark we're very glad to have you but obviously with these headlines there's a lot of worry there's a lot of angst would you say that there are any areas of Europe whether they be emerging or you know France Germany Switzerland that you like right now they generally speaking uh Europe is in bad shape and probably not a good Target for investing at this stage of the game of course individual companies are doing well in some cases for example in the luxury area of b h and some of the others are very good but generally speaking we're focusing on Turkey uh I don't know whether you would consider turkey part of Europe but I do and turkey is doing very well as a result of what's happening in Ukraine because they are having pretty good relations with Russia and of course with Europe so they can act as sort of a bridge between the two and benefit from that relationship so I would say turkey would be the place to be rather than any other place in Europe well that's that's very interesting do you take into account at all the short-term headline which is just the horrific earthquake that hit the region a few days ago another earthquake in the past 24 hours on that Syria turkey border is that sort of a a situation where you you absorb that and then you say well it's still a place to invest yeah because the Turks are survivors they know how to deal with these issues it's a big problem of course and it's a tragedy but uh we've learned in the past that the Turks are very very flexible they're very Innovative and they're hard workers as well so they'll be able to overcome this and come up to with the new good ideas and new investment ideas yeah so interestingly you know we just put up the ishares turkey ETF tur it's seen a gain of 70 percent over the past year let me shift to Russia is this sort of a don't touch it with with forget 10-foot Pole 100 foot pool definitely is no touch area it doesn't make sense to be looking at Russia at all except if this tension comes to an end the Ukraine war ends then of course we would look at Russia again but at this stage it's impossible because you just can't get money in or out yeah and it would make you know and that to me is very interesting because it it does that also mean that any of the surrounding Eastern European countries are ones that you would avoid well they're all under incredible pressure because uh if this War escalates uh out of Ukraine then all these countries are on the firing line so it's something that we have to be concerned with therefore probably not a good idea to venture to those area yet can I talk about India with you because India has been a very vibrant emerging market and yet we do see some headlines with the company the conglomerate adani which you know they don't exactly have the best due diligence when it comes to their Capital markets is that an area where you say it's it's a one-off it's a one-time deal or this is a systemic problem among a lot of equity names in India well as you know in any Market including the us or wherever Market you want to look at you will find cases like this fraud uh all kinds of corporate governance problems but in the case of adani I would not uh consider this a very very serious case because a lot of the information that was uncovered by Hindenburg was known to the market we knew that the family was deeply involved in the company and the company shares but the good news about India is that you've got so many good companies such as the topic group and others that have excellent corporate governance and we are very very optimistic about India India's benefiting from what's happening in Ukraine because they're getting very cheap Russian oil and generally speaking they're going from strength to strength Mark what is and of course that is Mr adani who is certainly Under Fire because of all of the the market cap that he has lost due to Hindenburg which is the short seller coming out with a very damaging report but where is the richest untapped investment opportunity you see on the whole planet whole globe well it's still India India is going from strength to strength you've got a young population average age about 27 26 27 compared to China uh 37 and uh India is now embarking on an incredible change technology change where they are now adopting incredible amounts of new technologies and also of course they are a big leader in software but in addition to that they are going to become a big manufacturer of semiconductors and other technology as it moves away from China I'd be remiss if I didn't get your thought on this pretty you know significant sell-off that we see right now we've got the Dow Jones Industrials here in the U.S down 626 points uh transports are lower by now three percent so we're seeing a loss there 468 points Russell down 2.7 percent the NASDAQ well Tech's been just kind of messy hasn't it been what's your assessment of what's going on in the U.S markets right now well you know the great thing about the US market is is huge it's a big Market with a very varied a list of companies that are in the market that have tremendous liquidity and profitability so for example you just mentioned about the Ukraine war of course all of these companies like Lockheed Martin and so forth are going to be doing well as a result of the build up uh by the US and the military so there are a number of these companies in the US that also are exposed to emerging countries and they have big market shares in these countries I would say you gotta pick and choose and not just look at the s p but look at individual companies because the U.S has a lot of gold nuggets hidden in that market well that is interesting because we just took a look at Lockheed Martin and we can see it is up about 1.1 percent and uh you know we've had one of our Traders Serge Guilfoyle banging the table on defense names for quite some time since the War Began Mark it's a pleasure to have you thank you so much for joining us exclusively thank you
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