저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
찰리 멍거가 2021년 1분기 데일리저널을 통해 알리바바 주식 3,700만 달러어치를 매수한 이유를 분석한 영상. 멍거의 투자 원칙 3가지: 1) 영구적 손실 회피를 우선하는 리스크 평가, 2) 최선의 대안(기회비용) 기준의 자본 배분, 3) 대체로 명백한 것을 기억하는 분석적 엄밀성. 알리바바 투자 리스크는 중국 기반에 따른 규제·법률 체계 차이이며, 멍거는 잠재 보상이 리스크를 정당화할 만큼 크다고 본 것으로 설명됨. 데일리저널 포트폴리오는 6종목(뱅크오브아메리카, 웰스파고, US뱅코프, POSCO, BYD, 알리바바)으로 집중 투자 구조. 투자 근거: 중국 중산층 소득 증가에 따른 소비 확대, 중국 온라인 리테일 점유율 1위, 알리바바 클라우드(중국 시장점유율 약 40%)의 성장 여력. 핀테크(알리페이 지분 33%)는 규제 리스크가 있다고 언급. 경영진으로 대니얼 장 CEO, 매기 우 CFO 언급. 2020년 1분기 릴루(히말라야캐피털)가 알리바바 주식 3,400만 달러 매수 사실 언급. 영상은 과거 매수 사실과 투자 논리를 설명할 뿐, 향후 주가 방향에 대한 명시적 예측은 없음. 장기 보유 성향 언급은 있으나 특정 자산 가격 방향 발언은 아님.
다듬은 글
charlie munger is an american billionaire investor businessman former real estate attorney architectural designer and philanthropist he is vice chairman of berkshire hathaway the conglomerate controlled by warren buffett munger served as chairman of westco financial corporation from 1984 through 2011.
he is also chairman of the daily journal corporation based in los angeles california and a director of costco wholesale corporation charlie munger one of the world's most successful investors and the business partner of warren buffett bought 37 million dollars of alibaba stock through the daily journal corp in the first quarter of 2021 he describes three of his investment principles as detailed in his book poor charlie's almanac the first principle that monger follows is assessing the risk of an investment this means avoiding permanent loss before analyzing the potential return of an investment when it comes to alibaba there's one risk that stands out in particular the fact that alibaba is based in china which has a different regulatory and legal system than the us monger believes that the potential reward to risk is high enough to justify an investment in the company the second principle is allocation specifically capital allocation as an investor the best use of one's capital is always measured by the next best use or opportunity cost this means that based on this investment decision monger believes that alibaba provides a superior investment opportunity compared to other major technology companies such as facebook amazon google and microsoft in addition to opportunity cost monger emphasizes that good investment ideas are rare and when the odds are greatly in your favor to bet heavily based on the portfolio of the daily journal corp we can see that monger has a concentrated stock portfolio the portfolio only has six stocks which include bank of america wells fargo u.s bank corp posco byd which is listed overseas and now alibaba which represents one of the portfolio's largest positions while munger is extremely patient with his investments sometimes waiting years before buying a stock he isn't afraid to bet big when he finds a major investment opportunity in my whole life i have no no wise people over a broad subject matter area who didn't read all the time none zero you'd be amazed at how much warren reads and how much i read my children laugh at me they think i'm a book with a couple of legs sticking out charlie munger said following the stock market crash of 2008 munger bought stock in major financial companies which traded at substantial discounts due to the market sell-off following the financial crash monger's investments in these financial companies including bank of america and wells fargo have increased significantly in value after waiting over six years monger has made a major investment again this time in alibaba following the 30 plus the decline in the stock following the company's regulatory uncertainty monger is taking advantage of investors fears regarding alibaba allocating an estimated 10 to 19 of the daily journal corporation's portfolio to the company at a cost basis between 225 and hundred and seventy dollars per share since munger focuses on the long-term fundamentals of businesses that he invests in he focuses less on what the stock might do in the coming weeks months or even years instead as seen through both the daily journal corp and berkshire hathaway munger prefers to hold his investments for multi-year or even multi-decade long time periods as long as the business quality remains high monger's third and final investment principle is analytic rigor while this translates to an extensive investment research process monger emphasizes that it's better to remember the obvious than to focus too much on specific details if we apply this principle to alibaba the investment thesis is pretty clear with hundreds of millions of people increasing their income over time this leads to higher purchasing power which leads to higher retail spending this directly benefits alibaba which has the largest market share in china's online retail market that being said this is dependent on china's economic growth as a whole china has a track record of high economic growth and is expected to continue rising in the coming years despite its scale and munger has expressed this view on china through interviews and animal meetings munger doesn't just talk about china and has in fact invested in the country before for example munger bought a significant ownership stake in byd china's largest electrical vehicle company through both the daily journal corp and berkshire hathaway since berkshire hathaway's purchase in 2008 byd stock has increased over 10 times making it one of munger's most successful international investments in addition to china when analyzing a potential investment monger states to focus on the business itself and to not overanalyze the stock market and the company's stock i constantly see people rise in life who are not the smartest sometimes not even the most diligent but they are learning machines they go to bed every night a little wiser than they were when they got up and boy does that help particularly when you have a long run ahead of you charlie munger said when we analyze the alibaba business the company has numerous growth opportunities and competitive advantages in terms of growth opportunities in addition to alibaba china retail businesses alibaba continues to expand internationally it has a number of strategic investments in south asia and southeast asia especially and continues to enter new regions alibaba cloud is the other major business to focus on alibaba cloud is the leading cloud computing provider in china with an estimated 40 market share but is also one of the leading cloud providers in the world alongside amazon's oz and microsoft azure with cloud spending significantly lower in china compared to the us and china's increasing digitization this serves as a major runway for alibaba cloud financial technology represents another growth opportunity for alibaba through the 33 ownership stake in alipay one of the largest payment companies in china and is expected to face major challenges due to increased regulation specifically regarding their lending business which was one of its most profitable segments that said with large total addressable markets for both alibaba retail and cloud businesses alibaba still has major growth opportunities even with the financial technology business held back aside from retail cloud and fintech alibaba has a wide variety of growth opportunities in areas including smart logistics online pharmaceuticals consumer services artificial intelligence initiatives and other businesses as well alibaba's advantages primarily fall into two categories intangible assets and network effects major intangible assets include patents employee talent regulatory barriers and data meanwhile alibaba has marketplace benefits from classic network effects in which the alibaba platform becomes more valuable for each buyer and seller that joins while competitors have been taking market share from alibaba over the years what's important to emphasize is that the e-commerce industry is not zero-sum the continuous growth of the overall e-commerce market creates room for multiple winners in the industry in addition to the business itself monger makes sure to analyze the management team before investing which is important for the long-term success of the business when it comes to alibaba management despite the popularity of alibaba co-founder jack ma ma stepped down from the alibaba board in 2019 and no longer serves an executive role in the company the key members of the management team include daniel zhang the ceo of alibaba and maggie wu the cfo of alibaba who both have extensive finance work and educational experience dan joined alibaba in 2007 starting out as the cfo of alibaba taobao marketplace rising to alibaba ceo in 2013 and became the ceo of alibaba in 2015.
meanwhile wu started out as a cfo of alibaba.com and eventually became the cfo of alibaba in 2013 and she's also the head of alibaba's strategic investments when it comes to assessing management one of munger's highest priorities is to assess the integrity of management this is extremely hard to analyze from an outside perspective but it's likely that monger had the chance to learn about alibaba management directly or indirectly through one of his connections such as lilu who munger describes as china's warren buffett who manages a portion of monger's wealth through himalayan capital a multi-billion dollar investment firm that invests in the us and asia lilu has invested in alibaba before buying 34 million dollars of alibaba stock in the first quarter of 2020 so it's a possibility that munger discussed alibaba with lilu before investing that said monger's investment in alibaba signals that monger trusts the management team what is your opinion about charlie munger let us know your opinion in the comment section below this was all for today hope you liked the video don't forget to subscribe to our youtube channel hit the bell icon for more updates and notifications stay safe and we'll be back soon with another video
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