The Little Book That Beats the Market by Joel Greenblatt: Top 5 Key Takeaways to Become an Investor

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결론: 영상은 Joel Greenblatt의 'The Little Book That Beats the Market'을 소개하며 마법공식 투자법을 설명하고, 특정 종목의 단기 가격 방향 예측은 없다. 핵심 주장 1: 시장은 논리보다 감정에 의해 움직인다. 보잉은 작년 한 해 동안 최저 300달러에서 최고 445달러까지 약 50% 차이가 났지만 사업 가치는 짧은 기간에 크게 변하지 않았다. 아마존도 1290달러에서 2035달러까지 약 55% 차이가 났으며 판매량이 그 짧은 기간에 50% 늘었을 가능성은 낮다. 핵심 주장 2: 기업 가치 평가에는 가정과 추정이 필요하다. 주가 변동은 시장이 효율적이지 않다는 신호로 해석된다. 예시로 연 30만 달러 이익을 내는 이커머스 사업의 가치를 평가하려면 올해 이익 전망, 예측의 확신도, 산업의 장기 전망을 고려해야 한다. 핵심 주장 3: 주가수익비율(PER)과 자산수익률(ROA)을 함께 봐야 한다. 사촌의 가게는 90만 달러에 팔리고 연이익 30만 달러로 PER 3이며, 경쟁자 가게는 PER 9이다. 투자금 회수 기간은 사촌 가게가 3년, 경쟁 가게가 9년이다. 자산 60만 달러로 30만 달러 매출을 내는 사촌 가게와 자산 30만 달러로 10만 달러 매출을 내는 경쟁 가게를 비교하면 ROA가 높은 쪽이 더 나은 투자다. 핵심 주장 4: 마법공식은 ROA가 높고 PER이 낮은 기업을 고르는 방식이다. 두 지표로 기업 순위를 매기는 방식이다. 저자가 17년간 백테스트한 결과 시장 평균 연 12.3%에 비해 마법공식은 연 30.8%를 기록했다. 1000달러 투자 시 마법공식은 약 10만 달러, 시장 평균은 약 7천 달러가 된다는 설명이다. 핵심 주장 5: 마법공식 실행 방법. magicformulainvesting.com에서 시가총액 5천만 달러 이상 기업의 순위 목록을 얻는다. 상위 5~7개 종목에 투자자금의 20~35%를 분산하고 매 분기 반복한다. 약 20개 종목을 보유하고 1년 후 전체 과정을 반복한다. 리스크: 일부 종목은 나쁜 투자가 될 수 있으며 중요한 것은 전체 성과다. 출연자 전망: 특정 종목에 대한 단기 전망은 없고 장기적인 투자 원칙만 강조한다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. this video covers my top five takeaways from the later book that beats the market by gerald greenblatt the creator of the magic formula before i jump straight into the takeaways and the magic formula i like you to consider what you should be doing with your money you could leave it in a bank and get eaten by inflation or you could invest in the stock market between the two it's obvious that investing in a stock market is the better choice now the problem is that most people do not have the experience or time to treat investing like a business they do not have the time to study the companies and view it as a business or sjl puts it choosing individual stocks without any idea of what you're looking for is like running through a dynamite fracture with a burning match you may live but you are still an idiot does that mean that the retail trader is doomed to fail well that's a solution that drel teaches before i go on to take away number one i would appreciate it if you could take three seconds of your time to like this video and subscribe to this youtube channel there are a ton of forex videos on our channel which are designed to help you become a better trader i also have a three day trading guide which you can download via the link in the description below takeaway number one logic doesn't drive the market emotions do let's take a look at a company like boeing last year you could have purchased boeing for as low as 300 and as high as 445 a price difference of almost 50 percent across a mere couple of months you could have paid 50 more for that same stock if you entered in late now what's the point here well boeing's underlying business didn't shift much in value during that short period its core business remained unchanged and yet the market was overreacting to any public information about the stock let's consider another example say amazon similar to boeing you could have bought amazon as low as 1290 or as high as 2035 a price difference of more than 55 percent do you think amazon sold 50 more products during that short period probably not this demonstrates that the market is not always logical and is primarily driven by emotions never expect the market to behave rationally takeaway number two valuing a company involves making assumptions and estimates when you look at the stock price its fluctuation is telling you that the market isn't efficient otherwise everyone will agree on a set price and a stock price won't change sometimes investors are greedy and prices becomes too high and other times fear is rampant and price drops as investors exit out of their investments consider the following example where your cousin owns an e-commerce store his e-commerce store made a profit of 300 000 last year as an investor how much would you be willing to pay to acquire this business well that's a really hard question isn't it if you thought that was difficult then you are going to struggle when it comes to the stock market you are typically provided with more information some qualitative and some quantitative to determine the price of a business here are some pointers that you might consider for this example firstly you have to determine if the 300 thousand dollars profit generated last year is likely to be higher or lower this year secondly you also have to consider how confident you are in your prediction that the figures will stay the same remember that a business is affected by many factors and expenses may increase lastly you have to consider the long-term prospect of the business do you foresee the industry going year on year with increasing figures or are you investing in a sunset industry that may not exist five to ten years from now take away number three understanding price to earnings and return on assets in the earlier examples we concluded that the value of stocks can vary drastically within a short period understanding the concept is easy but knowing when it is cheap or expensive is difficult that is why you need to understand price to earnings and return on assets let me demonstrate how the concepts work through another example suppose my cousin has a competitor who runs a similar e-commerce store that earns hundred thousand dollars per year in profits both businesses are being sold at nine hundred thousand dollars between the two which would you buy you would buy my cousin's e-commerce store of course you would only be paying three dollars for every dollar in earnings or what we call a price-to-earning ratio of three if you opted to buy the other e-commerce store you would be paying nine dollars for every dollar in earning a price to earning ratio of nine another way of saying this is that it would take you three years to make back your initial investment in my cousin's e-commerce store and nya's if you invested in the competitors store the price to earnings ratio is one of the most common ways of valuing a company in a stock market it is calculated by taking the current stock price and dividing it by its earnings you would rather own a business at a low price to earnings ratio than a high price to earnings ratio since it would mean that you will recover your investment faster but again investing isn't so straightforward as price isn't everything some stocks have a low price to earnings ratio because they are not doing well thus it is important you also look at the return on assets back to the example suppose my cousin needs six hundred thousand dollars while his competitor requires three hundred thousand dollars to build their e-commerce stores now assuming that everything else remains equal which would be a better investment well my cousin's store cost 600 thousand dollars to build and post in a revenue of 300 thousand dollars and the competitors the stock costs 300 000 and pulls in a revenue of 100 000 it should be clear that my cousin's store would be a better investment this is what is known as return on asset the higher the percentage the better it is it tells you about the quality of the business and gives you a yardstick to measure similar companies with takeaway number four the magic formula if you apply the principles taught in takeaway number three and buy companies with a high return on asset add a low price to earnings ratio you will more often buy enterprise businesses joelle cost this the magic formula and created a system that will help you do just that the magic formula involves ranking companies according to their combined scores based on two factors the quality and price of the business based on what you learn above it does sound logical to base your investment decision on the above two factors but for all of you who are still doubtful joelle back tested the magic formula for 17 years and found that it outperformed the general market while the general market was returning about 12.3 percent per year the magic formula was doing 30.8 a year a difference of about 18 and while this might not sound that significant consider the effect of this difference when we take compounding into the equation if you have invested 1000 using the magic formula you would have almost made 100 000 versus just slightly over seven thousand dollars if you invested in the general market sure some of the companies that meet the criteria might turn out to be a bad investment but what you should be interested in is the overall picture of whether the magic formula beats the general market in general in his spoke joelle further divides companies into 10 different groups and ranks them with the formula and you can see the results here i will not go into full details on how he further divides them but for now you can see that the magic formula is quite magical takeaway number five implementing the magic formula what good is convincing you that the magic formula is powerful if joel doesn't teach you how to implement it the first thing you want to do is to go to magicformulainvesting.com once at a website select a company that is 50 million or bigger you will then be guided with instructions to generate the list of top ranked stocks based on the magic formula based on the list you want to buy five or seven of these companies using 20 to 35 of your investment capital you want to repeat this every quarter until all your investment capital is fully deployed this should result in a portfolio of about 20 stocks or so you want to hold this stocks for about a year and repeat the entire process sounds easy it certainly is but if you don't wish to automate your investment and like to take a more active approach you can use the magic formula just as a screener the magic formula will show you what stocks you should be focusing your attention on and you can go ahead to perform your analysis to make your conclusion and that's the top five takeaways from this book here's a quick summary of the book the stock price fluctuates more than the underlying business value and task allows you to buy good companies at a cheap price it is however difficult to estimate the future earnings of a company since the factors affecting the business is always changing to help you do this you want to consider the price to earnings and return on asset of the business the magic formula advocates focusing on stocks with a low price to earnings and a high return on assets this formula has beaten the market by a wide margin over time if you learn something valuable and useful from this video i would appreciate it if you could like this video and subscribe to this channel do make sure to turn on the notification bell so you won't miss out on any of my future videos i also have a free day trading guide which you can download via the link in the description thanks for watching i'll see you next