저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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한 줄 결론: 바이든 행정부의 자본이득세 인상(20%→40%)에 강하게 반대하며, 세금 인상이 투자와 기업가정신을 위축시켜 결국 자본 흐름과 성장을 해칠 것이라고 주장한다. 세금 인상의 직접 영향: 자본이득세가 40%로 오르면 투자자와 기관의 세후 수익이 절반 가까이 줄어든다고 설명한다. 펀드를 통과하는 구조라도 세금을 내야 하는 주체라면 수익이 반토막 난다고 본다. 투자 행태 변화: 위험 자산(초기 벤처, 기업 설립)에 대한 감수 의지가 약해지고 기업가정신이 위축될 것이라고 주장한다. 미국이 전 세계 자본을 빨아들이는 원동력인 인센티브가 약화된다는 논리다. 본인 투자 계획: 최근 기후변화 기업에 1억 달러를 투자하려 했으나 세금 인상 우려로 5천만 달러로 줄였다고 밝힌다. 세금이 오르면 투자 규모가 절반으로 줄어든다는 것이다. 정책 평가: 바이든의 세금 계획이 실제로 통과되기 어렵다고 보며, 발표된 수치(39.6%)는 좌파 지지층을 달래기 위한 퍼포먼스라고 평가한다. 다만 정책이 통과되지 않더라도 이 신호 자체가 리스크라고 본다. 경기 및 부양책 평가: 1차 경기부양책이 기업으로 흘러들어가 대규모 감원에 쓰였다며 비효율을 지적한다. 소비가 성장을 이끄므로 개인에게 직접 지원하는 것이 낫다고 주장한다. 인플레이션 전망: 투자 대신 소비가 늘어나 인플레이션이 상승할 수 있다고 본다. 세금 인상으로 사람들이 투자 의욕을 잃으면 자금 흐름이 바뀐다는 논리다. 정부 부채 및 금융 리스크: 정부의 과도한 레버리지는 용인할 수 있으나, 민간 시장 참여자의 과도한 레버리지는 불필요한 탐욕과 위험이므로 개인과 기업 차원에서 더 잘 관리되어야 한다고 본다. 종목/자산 언급: 구체적인 대상 자산(주식 종목, 지수, 금리 방향 등)에 대한 가격 예측 발언은 없다.
다듬은 글
so so however way you want to cut it whether it's like the ten companies gets cut down into five or the five ten companies that i invest in get half my money the point is at some point the money starts to run out not just for me but for everybody else yeah basically at the end of the day the money goes into the hands of you know government legislators and administrators to decide how that money gets spent and it's not in the hands of capitalist investors to decide where to invest and you have an enormous investment in a private equity fund or a hedge fund part of these things is that you know there are these complete pass-through vehicles and so as long as like you've structured yourself in a way where you don't have to pay that tax i think i guess you're indifferent but if you're any organization or institution or a person or collection of people that bears that tax all of a sudden you know your returns have been basically cut in half that's pretty nuts i started as a day trader effectively meaning on the side i would speculate in my you know teens and in my 20s an investor is not a speculator and it's not a day trader um and i think that a lot of retail a lot of normal people the only way they will close the interquality gap is because they take it upon themselves to learn how to become an investor the government's not going to save them no law is going to save them no you know taxation of the rich is going to save them they can save themselves and you have to learn how to invest which is to put money into the things you care about and then do nothing let's take a step back and actually see the forest from the trees and the forest from the trees is that i don't think biden um thinks that it's a credible plan um in as much as i probably think uh he needs you know this is like it's performative um because it was a lot larger the number the headline number was a lot larger than um what people were whispering was going to be the number right it was supposed to be like in the low 30s or maybe kind of like you know 33 34 um and then all of a sudden like to come out of 39.6 i think it's almost like okay he's he's giving the pound of flesh to uh the the left kind of like woke mob of the democratic party who probably doesn't understand how capitalism works in the first place and doesn't care because they're not they're not participants in it now my reaction is i don't think it's going to pass i think it's going to be really tough to get done and i think it probably you know maybe maybe there's a watered-down version but this version i i'm not super worried about and then it just comes back to the same thing over and over the the fewer the number of people that get to participate in the growth and see the upside the more there are that just wants to just kind of you know tear it all down and so i don't know it's just yet another signal that we have these structural issues to fix it's not reasonable that a few people get super rich and everybody else gets left on the sideline on a marginal basis what will happen is inflation probably goes up because people just decide to consume rather than invest because they think well what's the point you know there's already risk that i bear and so you know the the earliest risk assets right the riskiest ones that we all participate in which is early stage venture and company formation there's you you may not be thinking about the capital gains rate but it's implicit in the returns that you're expecting for the risk and the time you're going to take and you know we've been trained to feel that rate and if you double that rate from 20 to 40 i suspect that there's a lot of people whose risk tolerance changes and they're gonna feel their after tax gains differently and they'll wonder to themselves is this worth it and then i think what happens as a result is entrepreneurship drags i don't know if anybody's done an analysis but i suspect part of the reason why america is such a you know an amazing like sink for capital right it absorbs capital all around the world is that you've created incentives that get people very excited because they think they can get rewarded if you take those rewards away i think the implications are much bigger than just the cap gains rates here because as the people change their behavior then the capital formation pools outside of the united states change their behavior and the whole thing has a knock-on effect and it was more muted in clinton it was less muted in 78 it basically didn't exist in the 40s and 50s but it is a huge force today i mean like we are an indebted nation that owes money to all kinds of countries around the world including china we're supposed to generate growth and sort of pave it back i'm more sympathetic to governments being over levered because i think because governments effectively are at this point still that may not be the case in the future the the only form of too big to fail that i think we can tolerate i have a much bigger issue with private market participants being over levered because i think that is a level of greed and risk that shouldn't exist unnecessary in large part because the governments themselves are so levered on the way in so maybe that's the way to think about it which is if we have to isolate risk and we know we can't tell governments to stop spending then i think we should probably make sure that risk is better managed at the individual level you know people and companies look unlike other recessions um where you don't know where the bottom was um this recession was actually pretty easy where the the the bottom was the first few months because literally everything was shut down so we went to zero and so now we're in the slow grind back to normalcy but the reality is the economy is not in a great place we saw that first phase of stimulus frankly was you know quite honestly wasted a lot of this money got sent to companies those companies didn't allocate it properly they still ended up laying off tens if not hundreds of thousands of employees just literally the day after the stimulus said that they could so the money wasn't functionally useful um i've really maintained that the right way to think about this is to increase the amount of stimulus that we send to direct americans i think that we know this economy is always consumer-led it's consumption that drives growth in the united states it drives jobs and capital allocation and the more money in individuals hands the better they can be to support businesses buy different products and that's how we grow ourselves out and the longer we wait to realize that and the more money we waste and give to zombie companies we're just gonna you know push the can down the road and it's all unnecessary by the way think about um what just happens to any organization that has to pay cap gains right it's not just individuals like um last time i checked organizations aren't exempt from cap gains um for-profit organizations um and i don't exactly know what they will do as well so you know you you you're putting a lot of people under a huge strain when you double the the the effective rate of return so you know if you're for example like a pension fund right and you have an enormous investment in a private equity fund or a hedge fund part of these things is that you know they're these complete pass-through vehicles and so as long as like you've structured yourself in a way where you don't have to pay that tax i think i guess you're indifferent but if you're any organization or institution or a person or collection of people that bears that tax all of a sudden you know your returns have been basically cut in half that's pretty nuts and where will the growth come from if lps don't want to back venture funds or venture funds but let's check out let's be honest and direct i mean are any of you guys going to change your investment behavior if the cap gains tax goes to 40 no but there'll be less of it you know yeah so look anything my behavior has changed i think my behavior will change yeah how will it change is exactly what david said so i just put in 100 million dollars into a climate change company two weeks ago under this promise i could only put in 50.
so there's 50 million less progress that's going to happen in that business i'm not sure that that was that's the right answer for what that company is trying to do in the world and the way you're saying that you're saying the profits you would have had from before are diminished in half therefore you would only have half as much money to invest as an investor so so however way you want to cut it whether it's like the ten companies gets cut down into five or the five ten companies that i invest in get half my money the point is at some point the money starts to run out not just for me but for everybody else yeah basically at the end of the day the money goes into the hands of you know government legislators and administrators to decide how that money gets spent and it's not in the hands of capitalist investors to decide where to invest is because they take it upon themselves to learn how to become an investor because people just decide to consume rather than invest because they think well what's the point there's a level of greed and risk that shouldn't exist and you have an enormous investment in a private equity fund or a hedge fund
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