저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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TSMC 실적이 AI 수요와 가이던스 상향으로 강했고 2025년 자본지출 380~420억 달러 확대 계획이 반도체 장비주 랠리를 촉발. 1분기 매출 250~258억 달러(전년 대비 33~37% 증가), 매출총이익률 57~59% 가이던스. AI 가속기 매출은 2025년에도 두 배 전망. 장비주는 지난 6개월 부진했으나 재평가 국면이며 AI 기회는 여전히 크다고 주장.
다듬은 글
look there a lot of great things going on last week so so many that we really didn't get to cover them all in depth so aside from the cool that expected inflation meetings and the trific bank earnings well let's talk about another huge positive last week we got a very encouraging earning report from Taiwan semiconductor Manufacturing Company AKA Taiwan semi or just tsmc for short the world's leading semiconductor manufacturer reported excellent numbers early last Thursday uh which was strong enough to spark a strong rally for basically the entire sector yes this stock is that important while Taiwan semi itself was only up 1.5% by the end of last week the company's commentary was so positive that the Philadelphia semiconductor index finished the week up 5.4% even LLY worm Intel managed to become one of the five best performing stocks just before voted list we got more than 12% and many other chip plays had huge Gaines especially the singu capital quick names let's talk about those there's a reason these stocks ran Taiwan semi delivered 39% Revenue growth year-over-year 57% earnings with these are extraordinary numbers neither of those were big surprises because the company releases monthly Revenue results so he had a very good idea of how much money they were really making but you know what was the surprise Taiwan semi's guidance for the first quarter of 2025 in the first quarter Taiwan semi expects revenue of 25 to 25.8 billion which would represent an increase of 33 to 37% year of year and based on the company's exchange rate assumptions they're expecting gross margin profits between 57 and 59% up from 53% in the first quarter of last year now ai all these numbers they were substantially ahead of expectations that's what you need to know management explained that the company's strong results in the fourth quarter were driven not surprisingly by the high performance Computing division which encompasses the AI and smartphone and markets and made up 53% of their sales in the quarter K1 sem's leadership in manufacturing AI accelerators like nvidia's best chips Remains the key driver of their success the best analog is indeed Nvidia Taiwan semi said that after AI accelerator Revenue tripled and accounted for about 20% of Revenue in 2024 they expect it to double again into 2025 and management thinks the strength from this theme will continue for a while over the next 5 years they expect the revenue to rise at a 20% compound annual growth rate and AI is the main catalst for that growth as Taiwan semi expects a mid 40% growth rate for AI accelerators during the same period now like I said earlier the pin action from this Taiwan semi quarter was extensive and some of the biggest beneficiaries were the semiconductor Capital Equipment companies that well these are huge huge uh makers of equipment that Taiwan semi buys appli materials rallied 4.5% last Thursday and is now up more than 8% in the three trading days since the quarter amazing first supplier lammer search gained 4% on Thursday it's now up 7% over three days K rallied 4.2% is now up more than 7% since Taiwan semi quartered that is serious pin action so why did Taiwan semi quarter sparked such a big rally for the semi equipment uh Capital Equipment sector simple in addition to all of its bullish revenue and margin guidance for the first quarter 2025 and the positive commentary about its long-term Revenue growth potential Taiwan semi also disclosed his Capital Equipment budget for full year 2025 it was enormous company expects to spend 38 to 42 billion in cap X year which would be up between 28 and 41% from last year and was well above the 36.4 billion number that Wall Street was exped by the way management said that about 70% of his capex budget would be spent on quote Advanced processed Technologies end quote now again equipment to make gpus and other accelerators basically chips from Nvidia and they're init imitators I was very surprised that Nvidia didn't go up even more last week it's proba catching up now just in case you were concerned I'll add the Taiwan semi management expects this money to be well spent they said quote a higher level of capital expenditures is always correlated with higher growth opportunities in the following years and quote these guys know what they're doing that robust Capital Equipment uh expenditure guide is why the sem ductor Capital Equipment group has caught fire over the past few days Capital spending from the world's largest Foundry and that's a name for a big manufacturing facility means money spent on the massive big ticket pieces of equipment supplied by the Applied Materials lamarch K and Dutch asml of the world the fact that so much of Taiwan semi capex budget is going towards advanced process technology is also a huge positive because those are the latest and greatest and most expensive pieces of equipment these Capital Equipment uh companies sell now but there was more to this move than just the explicit numbers that Taiwan semi put out while the semor capital equipment companies have been terrific long-term performers and started out last year hot do you know theyve basically been losers for the past 6 months or so in fact these stocks sold off in the second half of last year so only apply Jo and K actually finished the year in positive territory and all four significantly underperformed the sp500 in 2024 maybe I haven't missed any of everything here throughout that time the narra shifted from immense opportunity represented by the latest chips like AI accelerators to concerns about why the full opportunity might not be realized whether that's because some unsubstantiated rumor about delayed production for NVIDIA chips we hear that constantly right that drove the stock down last week or more recently the export controls that the United States was trying to impose to limit AI development by some of our greatest geopolitical foes especially China these companies gave up billions of dollars in business when Biden cracked down Chinese ordering periodically concerns also emerged whether the hyperscalers or certainly investing lot tons of money in AI infrastructure now maybe the Investments aren't sustainable and will need to be paired back in the future perhaps substantially and an uneven process in the market for some of the more basic chips hasn't helped the group either long story short I think the breakout in the semiu Capital Equipment group is a reflection of investors starting to think once again about the scale of the opportunity not about what's dismal but the opportunity ahead for these companies Taiwan semi management team spelled out that opportunity so eloquently in its earnings report and the associated conference called last week and investors finally began to realize that some of the restrictions on some of our most advanced semiconductor Technologies might soon be coming to an end as the Biden administration's time is over I'm not sure about that that's what people are thinking oh by the way of course on a day when Oracle salt back in a open AI also announced plans to spend $100 billion on new AI infrastructure just for starters I'm also not as concerned about the idea that the hyperscalers might need to slow down their AI spending partly because I've heard from En Nvidia Jensen W over and over about the impressive Returns on investment that customers can get from their purchase of his most advanced AI product frankly I don't think the opportunity for these sem conductor Capital Equipment companies was ever really that diminished even when their stocks were getting clobber last year there was just a perception problem and it's always hard to move the crowd when a group's out of favor but with its bullish report last Thursday 17 was able to remind investors how powerful this theme is remind you how powerful this theme is essentially resetting the entire narrative for everyone operating the high-end semiconductor world including the semiconductor Capital Equipment companies that stood out as some of the biggest beneficiaries bottom line I want you to keep in mind as we hear from the rest of the industry that Taiwan semi has a tremendous understanding of the business and they're insanely positive about the future of chips that can power AI I know the action the group seems long in the tooth but in truth TR maybe we're still in the early years of a once in a-lifetime new Industrial Revolution and you need this equipment to stay ahead of the crowd man money's packet the BR coming up could a decline in interest rates get the housing sector back on track Kramer is giving you two names to play the move for
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