저자: Contrarian Dude · 외국인
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just so you know they they they have a little bit of a track record of this so in 2018 it looked like there was going to be inflation and powell tried to get ahead of it and he raised rates and the the market completely collapsed and they were looking i think a chinese data at the time and it looked like you know china was turning you know going crazy then china completely turned over it was a complete head fake the economy wasn't reporting inflation didn't exist and um they basically just curtailed a lot of investment and destroyed a bunch of value so this time around i think they're very sensitive to not correcting too quickly but then the opposite thing happened which is they probably waited a little too long and now you know we're correcting too slowly too late into the cycle and we're just sort of digesting that reality and so i think that you know we're probably to be honest with you like actually like we've puked it all out for the most part in my opinion you have to remember right like the big difference between now and even 10 and frankly more importantly 20 30 40 50 years ago is how many computers are involved that trade how much passive money is involved that owns assets and how much of this stuff is sitting on the sidelines still in money market accounts and munis so if you look at those markets there is a ton trillions of dollars waiting to find a home and what we've now done and brad's charts show this is we've basically chopped the head off of all of these fast growing growth multiple the underlying companies have not changed once until right these companies are still growing by crazy amounts like snowflake is still an incredible business unbelievable but the multiple that one was willing to pay has been has been very much re-rated as is a bunch of other companies so let me ask you a question if we've gone from these 50 60 70 multiples time sales and now it goes back down to 20.
is that dare i say a buy signal well those trillions of dollars start moving back in because who wants to be in a money market i don't know and i can't really call these things but one a really smart person that i talked to this week you know he actually liquidated everything in october and november and you know and i i don't know we talked about this on the pod but you know i was feeling so much tension at the end of last year i actually had when i look back on q4 it was probably the most difficult quarter of my professional life in just trying to manage risk and i exited a ton of positions all my pipes you know my third party pipes i basically sold off except for one you know i generated some liquidity in other places as well and i was glad that i did that in part because i saw you know what he was doing and in part because you know jeff and elon were selling and i thought i mean this is just this is crazy to sit on the sidelines and you know be the bag holder here going into q1 i talked to the same guys and what he said to me which i think is very smart is you have to really look at the first and second derivative of the 10-year bond because when that stops moving like the 10-year bond is this beautiful barometer of the collective wisdom of every single investor in the world about what they think about long-term growth and inflation and it's a really important market you know we've talked many times look at the 10-year break-even if you want to understand where inflation is going we started to talk about that seven months ago and if you look at that the rate of change so the volatility in the 10-year yield is slowing way down and if that continues to hold that means that people are really saying there's a small amount of real inflation a reasonable amount of transitory inflation and we're about to kind of wash most of it through the system with you know 100 basis points of rate hikes and if that's the case then you may see a quick pullback you know in q1 and we're back to the races again because of all this other money that's going to say i got to get back in and if you look at all these corrections in the world of computer traded algorithms and etfs and passive money and it's all the snapbacks are so fast you correct 20 and then whoop you whip it back and you go so i don't know i mean that's one view based on the past i don't think a single thing in the last quarter has changed in the underlying fundamentals of the majority of businesses that are public and i actually think for the most part nothing has really materially changed for the majority of private companies all that's changed is what you're willing to pay in the future for it
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