저자: ContrarianDude · 외국인
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달러 밀크셰이크 이론(브렌트 존슨)과 피터 쉬프의 달러 붕괴 시나리오를 비교하며, 달러가 단기적으로는 강세를 보이다 수년 내 약화되고 금·은·비트코인으로 자금이 이동한다는 시각을 제시한다. 결론: 화자는 달러가 단기 안전자산으로 강세를 보이다가 1~3년 이상 뒤 약화되고, 귀금속과 비트코인이 크게 오를 것으로 본다. 브렌트 존슨의 달러 밀크셰이크 이론: 전 세계 중앙은행이 모두 통화를 찍어내는 상황에서 기축통화인 달러는 국제무역 수요 때문에 상대적으로 강하며, 위기 시 안전자산 수요가 달러로 몰려 다른 통화들의 '밀크셰이크'를 빨아들인다는 주장이다. 브렌트 존슨의 시점: 약 2~3년 이상 뒤(약 80개월 전후 언급) 달러 약세 전환이 올 것으로 봤다. 피터 쉬프의 시나리오: 달러는 결국 하이퍼인플레이션 또는 기축통화 지위 상실을 맞을 것이며, 다보스나 G20 같은 비밀 회동을 통해 갑작스럽고 급격한 달러 재평가가 일어날 수 있다고 본다. 화자는 이 경로가 타당하지만 당장 일어날 가능성은 낮다고 평가한다. 화자 본인의 깔때기 모델: 단기에는 부동산·주식 등 레버리지 자산 버블 붕괴 후 달러로 도피가 일어나고, 이후 달러 신뢰가 무너지면 자금이 금·은과 비트코인으로 좁혀져 들어가 이들이 폭등한다고 주장한다. 현재 상황 진단: 금이 달러를 제외한 대부분 통화에서 사상 최고치이며, 달러는 현재 안전자산으로 강세라는 점을 언급했다. 리스크/조건: 달러 약세 전환 시점과 경로(점진적 vs 급격한 재평가)에 대한 불확실성을 인정하며, 6개월~5년까지 시차를 열어두었다. 후반부에는 미국 사회·정치 이슈(BLM, 경찰, 미디어)에 대한 정치적 견해도 길게 다뤘으나 투자 예측과 무관하다. 출연자 전망: 화자는 금과 비트코인의 장기 강세, 달러의 중장기 약세를 전망한다.
다듬은 글
get everybody in max right here with another video today we're gonna be go back to the financial scape going to talk about wealth preservation wealth creation during this time and we've got head-to-head the ideas of two people one Peter Schiff which I've talked about before but I'm gonna add a little bit to it as I've come to understand his position a little clearer and also Brett Johnson someone I haven't mentioned yet but someone who's talked about what what he calls the US dollar milkshake theory it's all over YouTube you can check it out I'm gonna explain it here for you in a minute and we'll talk about the contrast between these two and this is kind of a follow on video from what I did about six or seven videos ago it was a Peter Schiff versus Mike Maloney versus Harry dent we compared the three experts about how they thought this crisis was gonna play out financially so we're gonna add bread Johnson into the mix see where he stands and of course I'll throw in my two cents about what's going on there so first of all let's start with Brent Johnson and I'll try my best to convey the US dollar milkshake theory to you so it was originally he came up with the name after watching it was a it was a documentary about an oil tycoon who was contemplating buying the bland next door to them and to get their oil and then it was too high a price and he said screw it I'm just gonna drill deeper and suck out the oil underneath kind of like drinking somebody else's milkshake through a long straw and so the concept was the rancher the oil tycoon was going to be sucking out all of the oil to somewhere else so that's where it came from that's gonna help us understand that moving forward the concept is this as we go into this crisis we sing the everyone we see the Fed printing trillions and trillions of dollars what sometimes not as well known especially by Americans is that all of the other central banks and governments of the world are doing the exact same thing they're printing does much cut money and just as much money proportionally sometimes more in their own currencies so again we go back to this concept of this uselessness of comparing one fiat currency to the other US dollar versus the wine versus the euro who cares they're all trash what brick Jensen know what Brinks Johnson is saying is that because of the incredible importance of the US dollar as the global reserve currency because there is so much demand for it every time there's trade in international reach every time there's international trade trade you need to go through US dollars so that creates a tremendous demand for US dollars as global but as global demand slows down the US dollar may get hurt but nowhere near as much as other currencies which are just not needed and the perceived strength will suck up all of the currencies that are being printed meaning him all these different currencies being printed but when they're printed what are the speculators the investors in those other countries what do they want to do they want to get in a safe haven asset and he believes that's gonna force lots of people buying into the US dollar creating that strength it's the US dollar will be drinking everybody else's milkshake through that long straw there it's perceived strength so that's a Brett Johnson's a US dollar theory I hope I did a good job of explaining it I want to go to the answer let's compare that if so I will get before I leave that I will say that that is consistent with mike Maloney's belief of an initial deflation followed by an inflation also by the way Brett Johnson I do believes thinks the same thing that sometime maybe 80 months two years three years from now we will see a reversal and u.s.
dollar lose strength as you know the tide goes out and we realize that there's a weed when the tide goes out you know who's swimming without any clothes on people will realize that the US dollar is weak and fundamentally broken and the u.s. is in big trouble both in a societal way but also a financial way but you can think that that's gonna be about two to three years out or more again consistent with Mike Maloney again consistent with my belief - let's compare that now to Peter Schiff so Peter Schiff kind of everyone agrees that eventually the US dollar will go into a severe hyperinflation if not hyperinflation will be destroyed and will eventually lose its reserved see status Peter Schiff adjust of the belief is very concerned that there will be a shock to the system maybe a secret meeting maybe at Davos maybe at g8 maybe at the g20 maybe it's a phone call amongst world leaders and they will get together in unison in secret and create a new monetary order to replace this old and broken one you can bet your bottom dollar it's not going to be advantageous to us but as in normal citizens but it may be advantageous to the elites what are the world over and so Peter Schiff thinks that that's going to happen suddenly possibly secretively and without any warning whatsoever and at which point the US dollar will be revalued drastically instantaneously not a slow system which is what mike maloney Brett Johnson and myself happen to believe now I wanted to say if it had finish this position because I think the position has merit it's definitely something you need to hear I don't think we're that close to it and I don't think it's gonna happen relatively soon but when it does happen it wouldn't have all surprised me to think that it goes down exactly the same way that Peter Schiff says it's going to go down meaning it will happen in secret it will happen without warning and there will be a very rapid instantaneous revaluation of the US dollar down and there will be no time to get out it will cause stock market panic it will cause a massive devaluation of the US dollar and a lot of follow-on effects that go from that and there will be no time to get out so Peter Schiff is just kind of like agrees with everybody else in terms of where it's going to happen and he's just taken the you know skate to where the puck is going to be principal he's just I believe the US dollar is gonna get smashed it's gonna lose his reserve currency status of the world I'm just gonna go to where I know that happens because I'm not a hundred percent sure of the path that's gonna happen I have a very clear concern that it's gonna happen quickly without has without warning and there won't be time that showing time the market and get out so I'm just gonna go there now I'm willing to concede I may lose six months twelve months two years three years five years but I don't want to get caught with my pants down so I'm just going to go to where I know this puck will be eventually other people myself I think it's gonna take a little bit longer to play out Brett John like me that's gonna take a little bit longer to play out now maybe it's already playing it so right now we have the price of gold at an all-time high in almost every fiat currency except the US dollar why because the US dollar is strong right now it is the perceived safe safe haven and it is soaking up all of the currency printing from other nations it is it's it's where the u.s.
is drinking the other milkshake so the question is which one's going to happen first which one's more accurate is it worth trying to stick with the US dollar and ride that out you know that's a that's a risk tolerance thing that everybody has to describe but I wanted to point out those two things and I wanted to mention that Peter chefs position is certainly 100% valid to clarify my position a few months ago you saw me draw on the whiteboard a funnel very much looked like this the top of the funnel we had real estate stock market and a lot of other traditional highly leveraged assets at some point that those bubbles will pop there will be a flight to a narrower portion of the funnel what I believe will be the US dollar that's gonna be the safe haven for a short term people are gonna cram into it and you'll see the value of the dollar explode but then in some amount of time six months twelve months two years maybe longer we will see that the will see the the frailties of the US dollar will come undone and the rest of the world's resentment towards the US dollar being eagle a reserve currency of the world being able to get away with rampant money printing that the rest of the world is not being able to get away with we will see that eventually people lose faith in the dollar and go down to a narrower part of the funnel to precious metals gold and silver and possibly Bitcoin at the same time at that time there's a very very small markets compared to the giant trillion quadrillion dollar markets of real estate stocks worldwide into US currency and Treasuries worldwide into a very very small part of the funnel precious metals and probably Bitcoin and those two will explode go up ridiculous percentages to the moon and then I believe eventually it will go down even smaller because you will see precious metals going getting stolen confiscated whatever a whole bunch of things they simply offer no protection against tyrannical governments whereas Bitcoin does and that's its secret source and eventually you'll see all the wealth from this big giant funnel funnel into what is today a slither of a slither of a sliver of that proportion of wealth and that the value of Bitcoin has to explode as all of this wealth flows into that one channel so guys I hope that helps it understands you guys understand where my position is hopefully I presented leadership's position and Brent Johnson's position as well and it's for you guys to decide who's right how much of your wealth do you want to apportion to each different strategy let me know in the comment comments what you think let me know what your strategy is well let me know what you'd like to talk about next any questions I'd love to hear them please go ahead and ask those questions below I will get to them shortly I'll also get that spreadsheet done quickly and let me know if you want some commentary on some of the societal issues going on in the United States right now it is a very very sad this that for those foreigners if you're watching from overseas America is in a very very tough situation the institution's the the police forces the mayoral positions you know Congress positions police chiefs and whatever else all over the country have been taken over by radical leftist and with Glee they are watching the country being destroyed and it is for a BLM and whatever else you know the the message the the slogan message of black lives matter of course it's a sensible message everyone understands that but just like the patriot act wasn't patriotic and just like the affordable care act wasn't affordable these are just names these are just labels at its core the rank and file don't understand this at its core BLM is a radical leftist organization designed to destroy the country and it's not even that big a problem what's the is the unison the the partnership with our institutions the police forces police officers kneeling police chief's abdicating police chief's telling officers to bend the knee mayor's governors of states you know bending the knee and is standing back watching a radical Bolshevik Revolution take place that's the problem and the third leg of the problem is you have social media you have the media and you have academia working in unison hiding facts and creating narrative tricking the rank-and-file into working for their own destruction so let me know if you would like me to talk about that if you have if you have other people that you know have a contrary position I'd love to have a moment while to interview them please put me in contact with them let me know if you're my took me to talking about that stuff or if you want me to stick to the financial I enjoy talking about both it's very high for me to focus on the financial right now because who cares about being rich in a world where democracy Liberty and you know they're met the true American spirit of a hundred years ago is no longer here it's a world basically that is is not worth living in quite frankly and even the people advocating it will very quickly understand that if they ever achieved their goals so let me know what you want me to talk about more and I will get you that spreadsheet soon I'll be a little bit busy but I've got some time coming up over the next few days and I will get that done so make sure you go ahead and subscribe let me know what you like to talk about and ask any questions in the comments I'll see you soon take care
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