저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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결론: 시장은 약세장이 아니라 조정이며 단기 반등 가능성은 있으나 파월 발언과 중국 이슈가 불확실성의 핵심이다. 시장 상황: 최근 주식시장이 약세를 보였고, 크레이머는 SP 오실레이터가 -5 수준에 도달했던 올해 세 차례 모두 반등했다고 언급하며 이번에도 반등을 기대할 만하다고 봤다. 금리·연준: 파월 연준 의장이 금리 인상 기조를 유지하더라도 시장 기대와 맞다면 반등 요인이 될 수 있다는 시각이다. 파월의 발언에 따라 시장 방향이 달라질 수 있다고 봤다. 무역·중국: 미·중 무역 협상(G20 전후 회담)에서 긍정적 분위기가 연출되어 투자자들이 주식을 사게 만들 수 있으나, 실질적 결과는 없을 수 있어 경계해야 한다고 언급했다. 펜스 부통령과 나바로가 중국 강경 입장을 대변하며 무역 긴장이 계속될 것으로 봤다. 실적: 세일즈포스 등 주요 기업 실적과 가이던스가 중요하며, 대부분의 실적 발표는 이미 끝났다고 언급했다. 티파니, 딕스, 보더스 등 일부 소매주 실적 부진이 예상된다. 종목: 크레이머는 엔비디아에 대해 크레딧스위스의 아웃퍼폼 상향을 언급했다. 그 외 개별 목표가나 구체적 매매 권고는 명시되지 않았다. 리스크: 조정을 약세장으로 혼동하지 말 것, 반등 때 무리하게 추격 매수하지 말 것을 강조했다. 과거 낙폭을 헤지펀드식 드로다운으로 표현하는 용어 사용 문제도 지적했다. 출연자 전망: 크레이머 본인은 단기 반등 가능성에 무게를 두며, 파월과 중국 이슈를 핵심 변수로 봤다.
다듬은 글
good luck I don't want people to lose money i fundament of my career and I think that what happens is is that you easily could say you know what now I've got my chance and you do have a couple of days where things can go right but let's just use the classic example I know we're gonna talk about about China's second but so you're Jay pal and you're trying to figure out how you can justify that you said you want one hike in December and then three next year and suddenly you have a Black Friday that's straw and you have all the ammo in the world so he can stick it to the president he can stick it to the overspend by the Republicans even though he is Republican and you end up with a situation where what's what's good news is bad news so you can come in he classic fair market behavior you leave your Friday and I mean I watched your Friday was like oh god you gotta be kidding me and you come into mind say all everything's clear and that's how you lose money because you come in today you buy it up a little you probably get tantalized tomorrow it might be good because people feel that Powell's gonna say the right thing hey cuz your hat off you know we're oversold we can bounce so what if we got I mean we got this Briggs it you know a little clarity italy's talking about reducing their deficit right what if we what if powell does talk tough ish and we get some tariffs did you have a good week you have a good week but we ended up the we don't have what matters the most to me which is great earnings okay so maybe salesforce and gives a good guide maybe Keith block gives a good guy you know Costa yo you can hear from Keith block I think a lot of people want to hear it just for Marc Benioff alright earnings are largely done at this point other than no but we got a whole new crowd earnings that you aren't strip we look at Tiffany and dicks and boxes it's supposed to be bad and Salesforce yeah so I mean all I'm looking at all I'm saying is we deserve a rally every time we went to minus 5 on the SP oscillator this year there's been three times we bounced I think we can bounce but the fundamental things that have kept us down can take an abeyance look and I don't think that that president Trump is going to be rude at the Jeep's just the same two things it's Powell and China Oh what so an open the new how we value I'm just saying we cuz I got a new necklace for hit we will day and we'll talk about them okay okay so we should without any new data points necessarily certainly when it comes to China because really nobody knows anything what I'm could usually say that we could talk about United Technologies finally getting improvement yes yep well I'm just saying that don't make clothes so should clothes today or them yeah but there's only one year November 17 with CVS separately gonna close this yeah got some big deal sparkly look there are good things that can happen I'm just saying that you just summed up the problems the things that we hear about every day are in control and I think pence is in control and I think pals in control and pence doesn't care at all about the stock market one whit he's about stopping the belt road initiative and containing the Chinese and I think pal hate Trump I never thought I'd hear those words is in control pension is a leading ideologue from front when it comes from so he is espousing and/or articulating the views of Navarro and light hi sir yes he's bad cop oh he's really bad car by the way the last time for president he wasn't exactly good cop no place called when he always the president way says they chunk about it he's my good friend my good friend and we absolutely sit there because we're I don't you know what a lot of people seem to think what would that be there's going to be a good body language good good sort of talk out of the g20 that won't necessarily amount to anything but will result in people buying some stocks yes and that's what I'm worried about is that look you had to buy Friday all right look Karen Cramer when I trade over there like it would come in today I say wow we got look this is it this is it it's happening it's happening we gotta go buy work day I mean this is it I mean can't you tell the amazons bottom said she was ceiling why didn't you buy Friday and I said well this is once you go get me a pretzel and Diet Coke and then she'd sell things into the rally and I would come back and say well I should do that it's because you're stupid and I'm smart so Karen Cramer credit suisse going initiate Nvidia outperform okay so that's quite you see I invented just finish a correction see when you go through to 80 to 140 that's a correction it's not a bear market what does it take for people to say it's a bear more to 80 to 140 David to 80 to 140 is that a correction yes it's correction they say it is a half thousand fifty percent that's a good term to reset as what I'm telling entry let's take all these terms down that make it so you can't use the word bare resets goodness that's a corrections good at telling have an opportunity compelling these are all the things to say come get me opportunist technique what the hedge fund world uses his drawdown that's my drawdown and so it had nothing to do with we made a mistake we invested incorrectly I know you
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