저자: BrianKelly · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 비트코인은 변동성이 매우 크지만 포트폴리오의 1% 정도는 담아볼 만하며, 기관 자금이 점차 유입되는 중이라는 주장. 비트코인 가격 배경: 2017년 말 약 2만 달러 고점 이후 2018년 11월 말 약 3,400달러까지 하락, 고점 대비 약 80% 낙폭. 과거 사이클 비교: 2010~2012년, 2012~2014년에도 유사한 급등 후 급락이 반복되었으며, 현재 조정도 같은 패턴의 일부로 해석. 기관 투자자 동향: 약 6,000개 기관이 하락장에서 오히려 관심을 보이며 노출 확대를 검토 중이고, 기관은 포트폴리오의 1~5% 수준으로 비중을 제한해 담는 중. 투자 대상 관점: 기관이 보는 핵심 두 가지 메가트렌드는 (1) 증권화에서 토큰화로 가는 월스트리트 3.0 (5~10년 과정), (2) 사용자가 데이터를 통제하는 웹 3.0. 가치저장 수단 논쟁: 20,000달러에서 3,000달러로 급락하는 자산을 가치저장 수단이라 보기 어렵다고 인정하면서도, 하락 중에도 비트코인 네트워크 거래 건수는 최근 몇 달간 증가해 교환 수단으로 쓰이고 있다고 주장. 개인 투자자 조언: 모든 사람이 비트코인을 포트폴리오에 조금 담아야 하며 비중은 약 1%가 적절. 1%만 담으면 약세장을 견딜 수 있다고 설명. 리스크: 가장 위험한 투자 중 하나이며 기술적으로 첨단이지만 극심한 변동성이 예상된다는 점을 발언자 스스로 강조. 출연자 전망: 명확한 단기 가격 목표는 제시하지 않았고, 장기적 관점에서 비트코인 보유를 권유하는 입장.
다듬은 글
Bitcoin was in the middle of a record run that would take it to a high of almost $20,000 a coin, but Bitcoin was a turkey this Thanksgiving, falling to a low of $3,447 on Sunday. Today it is still down 80 percent from that December 27th high of $19,700.
Let's bring in Brian Kelly, the founder of Brian Kelly Capital and a Fast Money trader. Brian, good to see you.
Hey, good to be here.
As much as we're hand-wringing over this huge decline, you sent over a chart which basically says we've seen this movie before. Can you walk us through this chart?
Yeah, sure. Bitcoin since 2010, from 2010 to 2012 and then 2012 to 2014, saw very, very similar moves. We saw a huge run-up, just like we saw this time last year, and then a sell-off, and it repeated itself. So we're through that now. It doesn't feel very good as an investor, it certainly doesn't feel very good, but people need to remind themselves that this is the riskiest thing you can do with your money. It is cutting-edge technology, and it'll be extremely volatile.
Does this sort of decline help or hurt the move of institutional investors into this space? That had always been cited as a catalyst: institutional money will come into the space when you see a decline like the one we're living through right now. Does that make an institutional investor say, "Hey, this is a bargain now," or does it make them say, "This just shows how volatile this asset class is, and I want no part of it"?
Yeah, that's a great question. I thought, at least from my perspective and our fund's, we'd see a lot of outflows. What we've seen from institutional investors is more interest than we have in the last couple of months. We're around 6,000 institutions saying, "Hey, listen, this thing has gone through a bear market, it hasn't gone away, I need some exposure down at these levels." It certainly looks a little more attractive at these prices. But importantly, what institutions are doing is sizing it appropriately: one to five percent of their portfolio is going into this asset class.
When you talk to the investors who are interested in Bitcoin now, how are they viewing it? There was a case that it was a store of value, but an asset that goes from $20K to $3,400, it's hard to say that's a store of value with that sort of volatility. Others say it's a means of transaction, an actual currency. But if you believe that the more transactions and the more Bitcoin is used, the price should go higher, that's hard to argue as well. So when they invest in this, what is it, in their view?
There are two things they're investing in. Number one is "Wall Street 3.0," where we've gone from securitization to tokenization, and that's going to be a five-to-ten-year process. The second part is "Web 3.0," where we're removing the tracking mechanisms that Facebook has and creating a new web where the user controls the data. Those are the two big mega-trends institutions see and are investing in here.
In terms of store of value, something that goes from $20 thousand to $3 thousand, I don't think anybody is going to argue that that's a great store of value. That being said, what's interesting is that even in this decline, transactions have gone up over the last few months. We've seen the number of transactions increase on the Bitcoin network, which to me says this thing is still being used as some kind of medium of exchange.
What, if any, individual investor should buy Bitcoin, and how should they do it?
That's a great question, Tyler, because I love you. I think everybody should have some piece of cryptocurrency, some Bitcoin, in their portfolio. But it needs to be a really small portion of your portfolio, let's say 1 percent. If you put 1 percent of your portfolio into this, you can ride out the bear markets. That's why I sent over that chart from 2010 to 2012 and 2012 to 2014: we've had two booms and busts prior to this one, and you can ride it out. So if you're the one who said, "Hey, back in 2014, boy, I wish I'd bought this thing at $300," maybe you're getting another shot right here.
All right, Brian, thanks so much for your time.
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