저자: TomLee · 외국인
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결론: 톰 리는 비트코인 연말 목표가를 25,000달러에서 15,000달러로 낮췄지만 장기 펀더멘털은 유효하다고 본다. 시장 상황: 유동성이 마르고 성장주·기술주가 밀리면서 비트코인이 타격을 받았다. 비트코인은 가치자산이라기보다 상품에 가깝다고 본다. 수급 구조: 가격은 심리와 군중 심리에 좌우되며, 투기 세력은 손실을 봤지만 온체인 지갑 사용자는 크게 줄지 않았다. 실리콘밸리 투자자들의 마진 청산과 반도체주 하락이 겹쳤다. 반등 조건: 기관 투자 확대가 다음 상승 파동이며, 인프라 출시와 규제 명확화가 선행되어야 한다. 규제기관의 비준수 거래소 제재가 제도권 진입의 첫 단계다. 가격 근거: 비트코인 채굴 손익분기점은 약 7,000달러로 현재 가격이 적정가치보다 크게 낮다고 본다. 다만 상품으로 보면 생산원가인 약 1,000달러 수준까지 갈 수 있다는 언급도 있다. 대안 코인: XRP는 국경간 결제용 토큰으로 상대적으로 강하며 비트코인 대안으로 언급됐다. 결제 규모: 비트코인 온체인 결제 규모가 페이팔의 약 3배라고 주장했고, 시가총액은 비트코인 약 1.3조, 페이팔 약 0.6조 달러로 제시했다. 전망: 1개월 내 15,000달러 도달 확신은 높지 않다고 했으며, 장기 스토리는 유효하다는 입장이다.
다듬은 글
well I think it's been tough I mean global markets have seen liquidity dry up and I think Bitcoin is as you kind of correctly point out is not you know necessarily a value asset so as growth stocks and tech and fan kind of come under pressure it's gonna hurt Bitcoin is that best at best it's not a currency yet it's a commodity yes I think it's probably best to view it as a commodity and and really an opportunity for like an emerging asset class right and so the question is what is going to be the inflection point on this and by the way all the people that are getting burned on it now right are they ever coming back I mean that's part of the cycle this whole this whole thing more than just about anything else is based on psychology it's based on the masses it's based on a herd mentality one way or the other there's no other way to think about it yes I mean there's there's really sort of two players encrypted right there's people who are using it and have wallets and and that you know that sort of on chain wallets haven't collapsed as much as the speculator side which is people getting burned and absolutely so you know that we need to have sort of both sort of interacting with each other but take on this thesis I look at all these tech companies and their stocks are coming down yeah I look in say to myself the people who are most inclined to buy Bitcoin and other Kryptonian stre Silicon Valley folks who I think have either gone out of margin or I don't know what they've been doing but now they're looking at their own net worth falling you also have like the chip makers falling and you can say that that's a chicken-egg situation Nvidia is a good example of whether those chips were being used to make Bitcoin then you have by the way the fight over Bitcoin and Bitcoin cached and this split that's a whole separate thing I want to confuse that confuse the audience but if you have a whole world of people who are going to start to heart meaning a tech industry and their employees who were that were the investors in this how does this rebound anytime soon I think that's a great point I think that the downturn and Fang is is hurting those who are owning Bitcoin might need to raise cash but you know the next wave of adoption is institutional right they're not necessarily getting hurt here so there is a a crossover happening this is just an awkward transition that happened the institutional component I think you will partly through infrastructure like back twitch is launching soon but part of its gonna come from you know regulatory clarity and I think part of that's underway now I think once we have that I think institutions will feel that more comfortable making move on from 25,000 you now have a new call at 15,000 by the end of the year and that's how tock tick tock well you know there's a few things that could happen that could drive that so it's it's but this past few days has definitely been you know a negative development because we're talking about breaking to the downside of momentum what do you think the true downside is we're already falling below where you would have thought that could be this surprised you shocked you well I think that technicals you know especially in a bear market mean that price levels can retrace beyond like what you think are fair value but Bitcoin breakeven mining is 7,000 so we're way below fair value and my mother way Bitcoin mining a year ago you could have actually done it at this price and that's that that's the interesting part about this yeah it's getting more expensive just maintain the security which is really what should support the price ultimately right because the price it's if it's a commodity than it's gonna trade it breakeven cost which is around 1,000 I mean it's on what I don't get is right on a lot of girls are you saying why they why did what was I thinking why didn't they just stick with the stock market well some some you know days like this it does make me wonder by what was the upside I mean you had a great call in the stock market who knows yeah this thing is I mean this is like again I think that digital assets are going to be relevant in a world where growth is increasingly digital so to me Bitcoin is is a real bet on a project where we have 50 million wallets there's 5 billion visa cards and so I think the runway is really adoption in the future I always talk about Bitcoin because that is that is that is the the biggest of the kryptos out there are there any other kryptos that are working well while bitcoin is not well I think one is a for Haven the big yeah Andrew I think you know you kind of mentioned briefly that you know part of the South and Bitcoin has been this contentious heart for compact coin cash one of the ways you see it is some of these larger alts have held up great like XRP relative to bitcoins actually starting to break out so we call the Alton altas is an ultimate Oh like an alternative to Bitcoin yes and XRP is a token that is really used for settlements you know cross-border settlements but it's held up great do you have any expectation that regulators are going to approve more uses of crypto in a way that they currently are not anytime soon because that to me would be the tipping point I think that the first step in that is going to be regulators sanctioning non-compliant exchanges or investigations and I think that's taking place you know sort of price transparency and then it becomes clear which are the compliant ways to trade crypto and I think that paves the way for institutions so I think the steps are possible that crypto actually works and works well but it works at a price point of 500 dollars a coin or $1,000 a Bitcoin meaning that it doesn't have to live in this other place for it to actually be used or or at the cost gone up so much that it has to be yeah I mean I think in some ways bitcoins problem is the unit price people focus on it even though you can divide Bitcoin into eight digits right so it you don't have to buy a whole Bitcoin but you know it's a hundred billion dollars it's clearing more on train transactions but relative to PayPal by a factor of three so today Bitcoin is more used to move money than PayPal and I think it's already establishing itself as a fairly much in value PayPal right now I should go get a market cap on that you have any idea it's probably the 2030 billion it's a Bitcoin so the question is Bitcoin at a hundred billion yes but bitcoin is growing it's its share so you know it's a you know in a couple years it could actually be six times the amount of PayPal got it by the way PayPal Holdings market cap 94 billion dollars yeah so if it's three times as the size yeah I think it should be 300 that's right bitcoins about 1.3 trillion PayPal you know 600 billion ish okay Tom Lee a fun shot you got we got about a month you're gonna come back we'll see if we get to 15,000 in that time yeah what's your conviction your conviction rate it's not high right now but you know do I think Bitcoin and as a long-term fundamental story is broken I don't think so I mean I mean price at the moment isn't confirming fundamental sit around your Thanksgiving table with whomever you're gonna sit with and there's a conversation to a Bitcoin because I remember last year there was a conversation a lot of Thanksgiving tables and you remember by the way that's one of the reasons people thought the price went up after Thanksgiving yeah do you think you're going to be telling people to go buy I think it's gonna be a generational argument right I think there's me a lot of young people who kind of see the case and then I think a lot of people are gonna be wagging their finger right the prom is young people don't have to have the money anyway thanks Tom finish it you
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