저자: BartSmith · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 비트코인은 단기 급락 중이나 장기 가치는 유효하며, 단기 가격 예측은 하지 않는다. 시세 배경: 비트코인은 이번 주 30% 이상 하락해 약 4,200달러까지 밀렸고, 연초 대비 약 65%, 사상 최고가 대비 75% 이상 하락한 상태다. 비트코인캐시 하드포크 분쟁과 SEC 규제 우려가 하락을 가속했다. 하락 원인: 주식시장 전반의 매도와 투기적 자산에서 고품질 자산으로의 이동이 영향을 줬고, 이더리움 등 주요 알트코인도 8~9% 하락했다. 시가총액은 1월 고점 대비 약 7,000억 달러 감소했다. 가격 전망: Tom Lee가 연말 목표가를 2.5만 달러에서 1.5만 달러로 낮췄다. 기술적으로 3,500달러 지지, 다음 주요 레벨은 3,000달러로 언급됐다. Bart Smith는 가격 목표를 제시하지 않는다고 밝혔다. 수급 분석: 기관 및 부유층이 쉽게 매수할 수 있는 온램프가 부족해 유동성이 낮고, 그래서 매도 물량을 흡수하지 못한다. 2019년 피델리티·뱅크오브아메리카 등을 통한 유입과 규제 진전이 있어야 개선될 수 있다. 투자 논리: 가치저장 수단 논리는 약해졌다는 질문이 나왔으나, Bart Smith는 장기적으로 탈중앙 화폐에 대한 수요는 유효하다고 보고 단기 가격이 성공 여부를 결정하지 않는다고 주장했다. 아마존 사례(95% 하락 후 회복)를 들었다. 포트폴리오 조언: 비트코인은 포트폴리오의 낮은 한 자릿수 비중으로만 노출하라는 의견이다. 리스크: 규제 불확실성, 유동성 부족, 추가 하드포크 분쟁이 하락 요인으로 지목됐다. 출연자 전망: 단기 하락 가능성을 인정하면서도 장기 사용성 확대에 무게를 둔다.
다듬은 글
Bitcoin down more than 30% this week as a crypto currency fell to 4,200 this morning its lowest level in more than a year are Seema Modi's live at the New York Stock Exchange with more on the move Seema Melissa that's right Bitcoin down again today it has dropped 65% so far this year in more than 75 percent from its all-time high last year now the move south accelerated after a contentious dispute over Bitcoin Cash's hard fork sparking investor concerns adding to a whirlwind of regulatory worries over the SCC's enforcement against multiple digital currency platforms analysts say the broader equity market sell-off and this shift away from speculative momentum plays to higher quality assets is also driving bitcoins plunge the broader crypto space has crumbled along with it many of bitcoins peers have fallen in tandem ether and rippled down eight to nine percent each the declines have taken a seven hundred billion dollar chunk out of the total market cap of all digital currencies from their January highs that's according to coin market cap keep in mind last year Bitcoin gained about 70 percent between Thanksgiving and the end of December meantime fun strats Bitcoin Bowl Tom Lee just slashed his private price target to fifteen thousand dollars from 25 thousand dollars as for technical some analysts say we could see minor support around 3500 with the next major level being three thousand Melissa back to you Seema thank you by the way Tom leaves forecast that's a year-end so it's like a month plus for more on Bitcoin sell-off let's bring in Bart Smith the head of digital asset it's at Susquehanna here on fast money we do call him Wall Street's crypto King alright great to have you with us hello is this capitulation have we found a bottom or close to a bottom like where are we in this sell-off so there's a couple of factors that have led to this number one the on-ramps for new capital it's very difficult right and so if you're a hunter Worth person in the Western world or you're a global institution it's still very difficult for you to buy Bitcoin the way that you might want to write so like a wealthy individual from the GI generation is not going to take a high-resolution you know picture of their of their driver's license and send it to a website and send them money right they want to invest at fidelity they want to invest at Bank of America so that has led to the second problem which is without the new capital on rep liquidity has been very low and and so we've seen kind of a stable price all through the summer we've talked about the nauseam on the show it was at six thousand dollars give or take but volatility got really really light at the end of October the 10-day realized vol was like 9:00 nowhere yeah and so and so what happens is in that environment when you have a contentious fork right like you had Bitcoin cash and you could say that those two constituencies you know conduct to one another might be defined as juvenile right and it doesn't necessarily create a tremendous amount of confidence and when those sellers come in there's just no liquidity to absorb it so without these new on-ramps that hopefully with backed and fidelity and further regulation in 2019 there's not gonna be capital to soak it up and so when you have you know sell offs like this you can't absorb it is there a fundamental case for a Bitcoin that can still be made at this point I mean that the case for store of value seems to be a hard case to make at this point and also the thinking that bitcoin is a platform and that if if it's built and it's being used the price should go up that doesn't seem like it's a good argument anymore either well again so the Satoshi Nakamoto designed this this algorithm so the last Bitcoin would be mine in 21:40 for a reason this is supposed to be a long game right so there's a lot of talk today about the Thanksgiving table a year ago and yes Bitcoin was at 8,000 but the Thanksgiving before that it was at 750 and the Thanksgiving before that is at 350 and in 2010 someone bought two pizzas for 10,000 Bitcoin that today would be worth over forty million dollars so I understand the price action if you bought the day the futures you know we're launched in December to now has been pretty painful but listen every great idea is volatile right Amazon which we talk about over and over on the show it went down ninety-five percent went from one hundred and six to six dollars right it and and people wrote it off this being debt so I think that that yes the price action has been difficult but the idea of having a peer-to-peer sovereign non-centralized you know store value or peer-to-peer you know cash is something that's been desired for a long time and the price action from now until the end of the year where Tom Lee may or may not be wrong or into next year is not going to define if Bitcoin is successful it's just the you know the use of it the usership of it has to express it hurt the trade though in terms of I mean if you think of Tom Lee is as somebody from mainstream you know equity strategy who sort of bridging the divide by starting coverage of Bitcoin issuing these price targets for him to come out and stand by a $15,000 price target you're in does that ultimately hurt the space in your view you know we again I I do I don't do price targets right so if someone asked me where work at Bitcoin go I would say well two Thanksgivings ago was at 750 and last year was at 19 500 so somewhere between there right which is not a great market I think that we in this world think about Bitcoin as an asset class right and that's not what it originally was and so we turn it into an asset class and you know we have discussions about the correlation to traditional asset classes and you know David Swensen who literally wrote the book on endowment investing you know investing money into it I think shows that there is you know a value for me into businesses though as opposed to the the cryptocurrencies themselves that's correct and then and so I think yeah for this to be successful usership has to increase and that may or may not mean the value goes up in the United States it's difficult like you know venmo and American Express looks perfectly well for me and so that was not necessarily what it was designed for but the desire to have a non-sovereign you know a form of currency has existed forever I remember it came out of the depth of the crisis like let's see what happens next year right if let's see if the central banks in in the United States and in Europe can really unwind this thing successfully and then and then we'll see you know what people want on all right thanks for coming by always great to see you thanks Bart Smith aka Wall Street script okay I think it's really important since we started talking about it Bitcoin and other currencies it was a hundred billion dollars that went almost to a trillion and now it's back at 100 and I think you have to think about this is one position in a portfolio low single digits and if that's how you want to be exposed to this going forward that's how you do it as a percentage of portfolio you
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