Jeffrey Gundlach on Corporate Credit - Barrons Event - Albright Knox, Buffalo - 01-10-19

요약 보기

기업 신용(회사채) 시장이 과열되어 있고, 특히 BBB 등급 투자적격 회사채가 신용등급 대비 과도하게 부풀려져 있어 등급 하향 시 대규모 매도 패닉이 올 수 있다는 경고. 시장 규모: 기업 신용 잔액은 미국 GDP 대비 사상 최고치이며, 투자적격 회사채는 2008년 금융위기 전 약 7천억 달러에서 약 3조 달러로 급증. 하이일드(정크본드) 시장은 투자적격 시장의 약 절반 수준으로 상대적으로 작음. 등급 왜곡: 모건스탠리 연구를 인용해 부채비율만 기준으로 하면 투자적격 시장의 AAA 비중 4%(실제 6% 주장)는 사실상 0이어야 하고, BBB는 실제 54%가 아니라 34%만 적정하다고 주장. 연구대로면 투자적격 회사채의 약 45%가 정크 등급이어야 한다고 함. 등급 하향의 가격 효과: 채권 등급이 내려가면 금리는 오르고 가격은 하락. 경기가 약화되고 기업 실적이 나빠지면 이런 등급 조정이 현실화될 수 있음. 등급평가사들은 레버리지가 높은데도 기업들의 '약속'을 믿어 등급을 유지하고 있다고 비판. 과거 사례 비교: 2007년 모기지 증권 시장도 등급 왜곡 상태였고, 가격이 80까지 떨어졌을 때 '저가 매수' 열풍이 있었으나 결국 20 수준까지 붕괴. 저가 매수자들이 공포에 질린 매도자로 바뀌는 패턴이 반복될 수 있다고 경고. 결론적으로 정크본드 및 BBB 시장에 대해 '극도로 부정적'이며, 호황기에도 투자적격 회사채가 최악의 섹터였던 점을 들어 경기가 약해지고 발행이 쏟아지면 상황은 더 나빠질 것이라고 주장.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. corporate credit has exploded in recent years this is the P the corporate credit is a percentage of US GDP it's an all-time high these are the mature I talked about see there were none in 2018 to speak of and how they they go up junk bonds not so bad but there are more junk bonds than the world thinks I have two more slides this one this and one more this is uh on the right hand panel is what we want to focus on the dark blue area is the size of the investment grade corporate bond market these are the supposedly good companies they're very likely to pay you back you'll notice that before the crisis of 08 there were around 700 billion of corporate bonds now there are $3 trillion of investment grade corporate bonds the Shaded light area is the high yield Market you'll notice that the high yield market now is very small compared to the investment grade bond market it's actually the investment grade side is two and a half times as big as the junk bond side however the investment grade Market is Mis rated unfortunately so this is this is hard to read but it's a very important chart I think it's my last one what we have here on the right hand panel on the on the left is the growth of the Triple B part of the investment grade Market that's the weakest part so Bond ratings are AA a double a single a triple B all the above are investment grade each one is sequentially viewed to be a weaker credit once you get to doubleb it's now called speculative by old school parlaments that means that you're a prudent person might not want it it's got too high a degree of default it's a speculative grade security well let's look at the panel on the right AAA actual if you look at the composition literally of the investment grade Market 4% of it has a AAA rating a study by Morgan Stanley research said if we use debt ratios alone which is probably the most important metric of a corporate uh creditworthiness if we use debt ratios alone they say none of the investment grade Market would be AAA so the four is is a sham they say that 6% actual is is do but only 3% should be by debt ratios of single a 36% is actual they say 19 should be single a and of Triple B they say 54% actual only 34 should be Triple B so 62% of the triple BS they say are you know are are uh 62% should be what they're what they actually are rated but the most important are the two on the right what that says is that of all the investment grade bonds AA a double a single a and Triple B they say 30 30% should be rated doubleb and 15% should actually be rated B which means 45% of the investment grade bond market should be rated junk per this Morgan Stanley study well I've got some secret news for you when bonds get downgraded their prices go down their yields have to go up and their prices go down so we could easily see a situation where these ratings get taken to the appropriate levels particularly if the economy weakens and their corporate results have some deterioration you could see 45% what would happen What would happen is you would have an onass panic I think that the corporate bond market today the junk bond market is in a similar position to what the mortgage Securities Market was in in 2007 it was mis rated and I remember when the bonds went down that had never gone below 100 they went down to 80 and people were cheering what a great buying opportunity it was and it was for a while they went back up to 94 but then they started dropping again and what ends up happening when people do the buy the dip thing and it's not really the bottom is you have the first wave of selling that creates the dip you have the relief rally and then when the bottom gets taken out from the Dip buying the people that bought the dip turn from buyers into scared sellers so I remember when the mortgage bonds went from 100 to 80 people loved it they thought it was a great idea they bought them they went up to 94 they ended ended life at 20 on the bottom 20 so I think that there's massive risk in the junk bond market and the Triple B market which is really the junk bond market that's unknown to be a junk bond market per the rating agencies and the rating agencies acknowledge some of this as fact but what they say is we are not uh taking the rating down even though the Leverage is too high for the rating they have and the reason we're doing that is we're hearing very reassuring talk from these companies well it's reassuring talk because the rating agencies have sympathetic ears and so they're saying we will do something about this at a future date we will do some debt we'll do some asset sales we'll we'll we'll we'll we'll eat our broccoli in the future you know we're not just going to gorge on on peanuts and crackers you know but if the economy doesn't let them or the market wakes up and says I'm not going to supply you this credit at that price well then they're going to have to get downgraded so I think I I've I am wickedly negative on the triple be rated um and so I I think that uh it's interesting that while the economy is supposedly doing so well and while there were hardly any mature any maturities in the corporate bond market the investment grade corporate bond market did not have a good year it was the worst performing sector of the investment grade bond market if it's the worst performing sector during a good economy with low issuance what's it likely to be under a weaker economy with boatloads of issuance thank you for your attention we'll move to the next segment of our show today