저자: RayDalio · 외국인
요약 보기
경제는 지출(돈·신용)의 거래 사이클로 움직이며, 부채 증가율이 소득을 앞지르면 구조적 문제가 생긴다. 현재 실질금리(단기·채권 모두)가 크게 마이너스라 현금·채권 보유는 구매력을 잃고 자산 쪽으로 자금이 쏠린다. 주식은 채권 대비 다소 비싸도 현금 대비로는 비싸지 않으며 기대수익은 낮은 편이다. 인플레이션 압력과 긴축 여부가 향후 시장 가격 변화의 핵심이며, 부채·정치 갈등·중국 부상·기술·자연재해가 주요 변수다.
다듬은 글
An economy is not a complicated thing. It just has a lot of moving parts. But the basic is there's a transaction. And that transaction means somebody makes a purchase. They make a purchase of a good, a service or a financial assets. That purchase can be made with money or credit. If money, when you make a purchase with money, you end the transaction.
You don't owe anything. When you make it with credit, then there's a liability. you have to come up with the money because a credit that debt is a obligation to deliver money. So there's a basic transaction. There's spending. In other words, the total amount of money and credit spent on a good or service.
And then there's the item that you're buying, a stock, a bond, a car, bushel a wheat. There's that transaction. Demand is best measured in terms of spending. Yeah. I think in traditional economics, it's a mistake to measure it in terms of the quantity of goods. What is given up in a purchase is money or credit.
What we go through is we go through a cycle. We go through a credit cycle. Credit can be created. It's not created through the velocity as is commonly believed. It it can be create created out of thin air. If I go into a store or I have somebody paint my house and I say I'm going to pay you later, I'll have created credit.
That'll count in GDP. It'll be an item of production. So, what we have is a credit cycle. If there's not much debt, if you don't have much debt, then you have the ability to borrow money. Let's say you earn $100,000 a year and you don't have any debt. You can then borrow $10,000 a year. You therefore can spend $110,000.
Your spending of $110,000 is somebody else's income of $110,000. So it has a positive effect and you go through a cycle and through that cycle you spend $110,000, they earn $10,000 and the cycle becomes re selfreinforcing. through that cycle, debt rises faster than income. Debt rises faster than income.
Debt can't rise faster than income forever. So, as debt rises faster than income, you have a a debt cycle. But those there's always throughout history a debtor and a creditor. And there's always throughout history the ability to create demand by creating debt and by creating money. And then there become clear preferences for doing one or the other.
What inflation is and we could talk about that but you will lose that and that tax on your buying power makes one not want to be saving in those assets. It makes one want to borrow in those assets and the available of credit and that set of circumstances drives money into other assets and those assets are investment assets as well as goods and services.
And so what we see now is that stocks are not expensive, not very expensive, maybe a little bit more so than normal relative to bonds, which are very expensive, but still not expensive in relation to cash. And so they are all having expected returns that are comparatively low. And we have an inflationary period.
So it's very important to understand the paradigm that we're in and how that dynamic works. And so as the inflation pressures become an issue and we have relatively let's say stronger growth, those things will start to change. And so the big question the markets look at is how will that change as a result?
Will the Federal Reserve and unch central banks begin to tighten monetary policy? because these things will change and what will tax policies be and the like and those things will affect market prices going forward. It's unsustainable. We certainly see it today in market prices and in everything that's happening.
There are three sometimes maybe we can stretch that to five big things that are happening and they are reflected in market prices and the dynamics behind them and their change will be reflected in changes in market prices and those three big ones are first that which is happening with money and credit.
In other words, when you get close to a zero interest rates and you spend a lot more money than you earn, then the government does that. That means that a lot of money is printed and it moves its way through the system in a way that is reflected in market prices. And so that is what is happening now.
The second is the very large internal conflicts that we're having that are due to wealth gaps, political gaps and so on that influence the left and the right and the dynamic between them. That affects tax policies that affects capital flows and the like. And they're reflected in market prices and will change as those circumstances change.
And the third big influence is the rise of a great power China to challenge the existing leading power and the existing world order and that is being reflected in market prices but will be reflected more as those circumstances change. The other two that have been reflected through history and I didn't have a full appreciation of until I studied the last 500 years of history.
Those two are technology and inventiveness changes. We're accelerating the rate at which they are occurring and that adaptability and change is affecting our lives in big ways. So you cannot ignore the technologically and inventiveness changes. And the fifth are acts of nature. You know, the one thing that was interesting to me when I studied the last 500 years of history is that acts of nature and they could be climate related droughts and floods and pandemics had cost more lives and toppled more civilizations than anything else including wars.
So they are something that comes along irregularly. you know when you have the pandemic or the drought or that event that comes along once in a hundred years or so they have had big effects too. So pandemic is a reminder of those. I think you have to look at the dynamic behind those prices and I think I would look at them a bit differently.
Regarding the dynamic behind those prices, it is that we are spending more than we are earning by a lot individuals and the country as a whole and that we need money partially because of the political issues partially for all the reasons that you know. So a lot of debt is being created that is also producing the need for a lot of money and as a result of that we have very negative real interest rates.
Real interest rates of short-term interest rates are significantly negative and even bond yields real bond yields are over 100 basis points negative. And so when one looks at the return of owning those bonds, that is a very bad return. It means that if you save in those assets and you put it away that you will lose buying power probably a rate of 3 to 5% per year.
There are environments like the late 1970s when Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Vulker tightened money and wanted to make it good to save and bad to borrow and have credit. That set of circumstances was caused and that action was caused by things that happened before it. high real interest rates and the like and that produced the environment that we had largely the disinflationary environment that followed.
Similarly, the 1960s led to the 1970s. The 60s had too much debt creation due to war and Vietnam and what we call guns and butters policies that were spending more than we were earning. And that led to the necessity in 1971 for the president of the United States to acknowledge that they would no longer be able to pay the dollar claims in gold and to default on the gold claim and to devalue the exchange rate and to devalue the dollar which led to the 1970s inflation and so on.
So there are always all through history the dynamic in which there are high real interest rates and it pays to be a saver for sometimes and there are times when there are very very low real interest rates and the need to create a lot of money and credit and it pays to have assets the opposite side of assets positioned in the opposite way and that's been true throughout history and that's the main driver.
So I think when we look forward we can use those as guides to what's likely to happen in the way of excess return. It's in fact the way the system works. In other words, investors, borrowers and lenders look at the relative expected returns of cash, bonds and other asset classes and move their money between those things based on the relative pricing.
And that's why, for example, when there is a rise in interest rates, a tightening of monetary policy and short-term interest rates are rise relative to longerterm interest rates, so the yield curve begins to flatten and so on that we see that there's a slowing in the economy and a slowing in capital availability, lending, long-term lending.
There's a shift to saving and as a result, there's a slowing of the economy. That's to me how the system works.
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