저자: JamieDimon · 외국인
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제이미 다이먼 JP모건 CEO는 미국 부채한도 문제가 자칫 파국적 디폴트로 이어질 수 있다고 경고하며, 패닉을 막기 위해 워룸 운영과 고객 소통 강화를 강조했다. 미국 부채한도와 디폴트 리스크: 디폴트는 잠재적으로 파국적이며 아직 발생하지 않을 것으로 보지만, 임박할수록 시장 변동성과 패닉이 커질 수 있다고 경고. 국채 단기물(T-bill)이 3%에 거래되는데 바로 옆 만기 금리는 5%인 것은 좋지 않은 신호라고 지적. 미국 부채/GDP는 약 105%로 과거 강등 당시(65~70%)보다 높고 재정적자는 두세 배 수준이라 신중해야 한다고 언급. 워룸과 고객 대응: 디폴트 대비를 위해 주 1회 워룸 회의를 진행 중이며, 상황이 가까워지면 매일·하루 세 번으로 늘어날 것이라고 설명. 계약, 담보, 청산소, 전 세계 고객에 영향이 미치므로 고객과의 대화를 늘려 대응을 돕겠다고 밝힘. 은행 위기와 SVB·퍼스트리퍼블릭: SVB, 시그니처, 퍼스트리퍼블릭 세 은행을 처리했고 은행 위기는 2008~09년처럼 큰 사태는 아니며 점차 해결될 것이라고 전망. 지역은행들은 예금 이탈로 우려가 크지만 재무 실적은 양호하고 다음 분기 이익도 좋을 것이라 봄. 공매도 문제는 근거 없이 확대 해석하지 말라면서도, 악의적 공매도 세력은 SEC가 엄정 조사·처벌해야 한다고 주장. First Republic 인수 관련: 인수 과정에서 고객 기반과 문화 등 장점을 확인했고, 예금 보험(FDIC) 비용을 최소화하며 시스템에 안전하게 통합했다고 설명. 대형은행 인수 규칙 완화에 찬성하며 건강한 대형은행이 미국 금융 경쟁력에 필요하다고 봄. 금융 집중도와 대마불사: JP모건의 규모는 주로 고객(대기업 및 50개국 기업)에게 귀속된다고 주장. '대마불사'의 의미는 잘 모르겠지만 JP모건이 실패하지는 않을 것이라고 언급. 2008년 위기로 인한 이익을 노린 의도는 없었으며, 위기 시 타 은행의 고객·직원 유치를 금지했다고 밝힘. 출연자 전망 요약: 부채한도 협상이 패닉을 피하는 방향으로 타결되기를 바라며, 디폴트는 발생하지 않을 것으로 예상하지만 위험은 관리해야 한다는 입장. 은행 위기는 진정 국면으로 보며, 지역은행 실적 회복을 낙관.
다듬은 글
are you most worried about the U.S debt ceiling or the current banking turmoil well I think the debt stream is potentially catastrophic so that that's a whole different issue hopefully it won't happen you know the banking crisis I still believe will kind of sort its way through and it's not and it's like 08 or 09 uh only a couple of people offsides with all these various things which you knew about um so hopefully you know it's getting near the tail end of that what do you think you would do differently if you were a U.S treasury secretary Janet Yeller I don't know I think we need to finish the bank crisis I think we've been we've had uncertain policy on mergers as first horizon deal I think we have to assume there'll be a little bit more so you know whatever the FDIC the OCC the Federal Reserve you know whatever they need to do to make it better they should do be thoughtful be very forward-looking you know not be surprised constantly because some of these things have been known about for quite a while and so uh We've handled three svb signature First Republic I think it's very important the regional Banks who I've been speaking to like every day for the last week they're quite strong you know they're quite worried because of the you know run and deposit yet but their financial results are good their financial results are gonna be good okay next quarter you know they're earning money they've got a very good clientele very Diversified if you want Jonathan to get the job done watch would be your comprehensive solution just be prepared for problems there's no we don't need a comprehensive solution it's regular just taking action on short sellers of banks a solution to the problem in this situation yes you know like look my folks would tell me that that's not the problem the short selling band if you actually analyze stocks and short sales it's not doesn't seem that big a deal I think they may partially be wrong because as you know some people are unscrupulous and they use other means to go short I think that if you look at the detail the SEC has the enforcement capability to look at what people are doing by name in in options derivatives short sales and they should go if someone's doing anything wrong people are in collusion or people going short and then making a tweet feet you know a better bank they should go after them and and vigorously and they should be punished to the full extent of law allows it so uh I think it's possible it's taking place we have no evidence of it but you know my experience in life has been don't assume too much Jamie Simon believes that a default on the U.S debt could have serious consequences for the global economy potentially leading to panic in the markets he emphasizes the importance of being cautious and avoiding situations that could cause Panic given the central role of the American Financial system in the global economy the economics the wide-reaching effects of the devastating issue on contracts collateral Clearing Houses and clients around the world he emphasizes the need for a war room to prepare for a potential default and for increased conversation with clients to help navigate the situation overall stressing the importance of preparation and planning to minimize the potential negative effects of a default on the US dads what are your thoughts on Donald Trump's recent statement during a CNN Town Hall where he appeared unconcerned about the debt ceiling and encouraged Republicans to remain steadfast one more thing he does know very much about it it may put in two categories one is actual default that is potentially catastrophic and you can go through a million ways and but everyone any more than anyone knows that potential catastrophic and I don't think it's going to happen because it gets cashed off and the closer you get to it you will have panic and so the closer you get you have markets get volatile maybe the stock market go down the treasury markets will have their own problems it's amazing you already have certain t-bills trading three percent and right next to them five percent this is not good and people just remember the American Financial system is the foundation to the to the global economic system and so and the closer we get more Panic we might get downgraded the last time we downgrade we had like 65 or 70 percent debt to GDP now it's 105.
now our deficits are two or three times that that we had back then so you know we better be very careful and I wish we didn't get there at all I'm respectful of both sides who you know one side wants to use it to make up for we've got gym down their throats you know and I'm I would love to get rid of the debt ceiling thing but please negotiate it do we think that ultimately it'll be the markets that spur the deal agreement where Panic ultimately forces the conclusion it's a really bad idea because Panic becomes something that is not good and it could affect other markets around the world but yes at the end of the day if it gets to their parent Point people have to react and we've seen that before another thing about Market is always remember Panic is the one thing that scares people like they take irrational decisions I remember even in 08 people are selling certain Securities at 40 percent of what they would be worth if we had a Great Depression but they were like I went out I want cash I'm not betting my my family's money on this and my company's money people will panic and again we got to be very careful about getting close to the situation how are you preparing for the situation of coming group of people who are very smart were looking at again it's very unfortunate it's time consuming hopefully it won't happen but it affects contracts collateral Clearing Houses clients it affects clients differently around the world you have to then anticipate what people are going to do which is very different than the legality of it and uh you know and the closer we get the more those kind of that war room will start now it's taking place once a week but my guess is sometimes in call May 21st it'll be every day and then it'll be three times a day and then it'll be much more conversation with clients about what they need to do to help get them through it and things like that it's very unfortunate it should never happen this way Diamond emphasized the potential catastrophic impact of a default on the U.S debt and ruins of potential Market Panic this highlights the importance of preventing such a situation from occurring he acknowledged that the debt ceiling issue affects contracts collateral cleaning houses and clients globally this indicates the wise for the impact of the US death situation and the need for Global cooperation he stress the need for Preparation and planning to minimize the negative effects of a default highlighting the importance of proactive measures to mitigate potential damage he mentions a war room and an increased conversation with clients indicates the proactive measures that JPMorgan Chase is taking JB Diamond mentions JPMorgan Chase had a good look at photo public bank before acquiring it and found that they did some things really well such as maintaining a great culture and pristine credit he emphasizes that JP Morgan is not the type of company to come in and impose his way of doing things on the acquired Bank in reality look they did some things really well like if you talk to their customers I've got calls and emails and great great culture great customers and things like that their credit is kind of pristine you know that's good so of course we marked all the market and we're all in very good shape we've had all the interest rate exposure together we've got thousands of people now going out learning about what their best is we want the best of both we're not the kind of company that comes in our Highway our way of the highway and so there's no surprise there uh you know it's if it had to make sense for shareholders but you know this notion this notion that it was an unbelievable thing that was a nice thing for shows that's my I have to do that but we also really did it to assimilate the bank in a way that's very safe for the system and it didn't cost uninsured deposits didn't cost it cost the FDIC as little as possible but I also want to point out I'd be fine if they want to change the rules a little bit to make it easier for for a Regional Bank to buy a big bank we need healthy big Banks we're the best banking system in the world banks are becoming smaller smaller as a part of the global system so when they look at Banks they say oh it's big when you look at the banking system to the system mortgages left a lot of private credits left certain trading functions left a lot of things are going to leave you have apple you have the Neo Banks you have you better be a little more thought about when you say we mean banking per se should Americans be overly concerned about financial consolidation being primarily in the hands of a huge large Bank such as JP Morgan no because you know most of our size accrues to our clients so if you look at you know we do most large small Banks can't do we do like banking large corporations of 50 countries around the world and move 10 trillion dollars a day you know it's hard so these are these are Big complex things we're not big and complex we want to be big and complex because the people we serve are big and calm we Bank countries the World Bank you know we do a lot of things and yes we also ban consumers United States so but I want the Community Banks to thrive I mean like I said we want to do everything kind of help them we didn't want this to happen we didn't cause it to happen the second it happened we knew it was bad for all banks is JP Morgan too big to fail I don't know what that word means anymore I mean we're not going to fail and I don't know what that means but we certainly didn't mean it to be an advantage like uh so you know we've asked all our people when this crisis happened I don't want anyone soliciting any client or any Banker from any of the any bank that's you know Regional Bank or Community Bank Etc Jamie dimon said healthy Big Bangs are necessary for the best banking system in the world and that the US should not fear too much Finance consolidation in the hands of a few big Banks he also points out that JPMorgan size primarily accrues to its clients and that they serve large corporations in 50 countries around the world so diamond is hesitant to Define what too big to fail means but he asserts that JPMorgan is not going to fail he also emphasizes that JP Morgan did not intend to gain an advantage from the 2008 financial crisis and that they have asked their employees not to solicit clients or Bankers from other Banks
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