When Should You Sell Your Stocks – Howard Marks Has the Answer

요약 보기

투자 책은 매수 위주이고 매도 논의는 드물다. 사람들은 가격이 올라서 또는 내려서 팔지만 둘 다 그 자체로는 옳은 이유가 아니다. 정당한 매도는 자금 필요 등 개인 사정이나 투자 논리를 재분석한 뒤 지금 다시 살 만하지 않다고 판단할 때다. 무조건 매수 또는 매도로 나누는 것은 잘못이며, 가격이 올라도 논리가 유효하면 보유할 수 있다. 대중은 시장 고점에서 열광적으로 사고 바닥에서 공포에 팔아 반대로 행동한다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Of all the books that have ever been written about investing and all the words, I would guess that less one less than 1% [snorts] have then have been written about selling. They're almost all about buying. When to invest, what to invest in, how to choose what to invest in, when do you sell? Most people I say half facitiously I say that most people sell for two reasons.

02. They sell things because they went up and they sell things because they went down. they went up and they say, "I better sell some because if it goes back down and I haven't harvested any profits, I'll kick myself and I'll look like an idiot." Or they they buy it and it goes down and they say, "Well, I've I've bought it and I lost half my money.

03. I better sell it before I lose the other half and I'll feel like an idiot." So, a lot of selling is designed not to do the smart thing, but to avoid feeling like an idiot. Now, if you if you accept that people sell things because they're up and sell things because they're down, then by definition, they can't be both right?

04. Because taking the same action in response to two diametrically opposed events, how can they both be right? And the answer is neither is right. You shouldn't sell things just because they're up because if they were a good buy in the first place, maybe they have further to go. And you shouldn't sell things just because they're down because if they were a good buy in the first place, maybe they're better now that they're cheaper.

05. So selling because something's up or selling them because something's down, neither one is right on its face, right? There can be personal situational reasons to sell, like you need the money or, you know, you need $10 million to retire and you're at 15. And if you go back to at six, now you don't have enough money.

06. So there are legitimate reasons to sell which are unrelated to the merits of the investment. But if you're free from those and you're just concerned about the merits of of the investment, then obviously there's only one reason to sell, which is you reanalyze it. You examine your prior thesis. You you look to see if your prior thesis is still correct.

07. You look to see if there is still room for appreciation under your prior thesis. You maybe reformulate your thesis to update it. And then you say, is it an investment I would make today? And if the answer is absolutely not, then you probably shouldn't hold it. But you know, most people who are doctrinire, who are, I would say, smug, say everything's either a buy or a sell.

08. I don't think that's true. I think there are things that are legitimately hold. Hell, legitimately holds. That is to say, you bought it when it was 10. Now it's 20. You update your thesis. When you when it was 10, you thought it was going to go to 20. You update your thesis and you now you say, "I think it can go to 25." Well, maybe you don't want to buy it for the trip from 20 to 25, but maybe you're feeling good enough about the trip from 20 to 25 that it's still worth holding.

09. So, there's some some more juice in the orange. in the environment in the world. As the economy gets better and companies report better results and securities appreciate, what happens is people become more enthusiastic and more bullish and less riskaverse and they buy by. Then what happens eventually things soften, the economy comes down, corporations uh report worse results, uh markets decline, people get depressed, sell, sell, sell.

10. So what are they doing? If you if you think that's an accurate representation, they're buying up here with the greatest fervor. I mean, obviously they're buying all along. That's why the market is rising. But they have the greatest fervor here. That's what makes a top. And then they sell down here, and that's what makes a bottom. And clearly that's the opposite of what you should