Bitcoin 82K 96K ancora possibili? Segnale bullish Jim Cramer ha parlato! 😄

요약 보기

비트코인이 57K~72K 베어플래그 구간에서 반등해 83K, 88K, 최대 96K까지 갈 수 있다고 주장. 짐 크레이머의 과거 비트코인 매도 발언 이후 비트코인이 상승했다는 점을 역지표 신호로 제시. 주간 캔들 종가 기준으로 하락 추세선 돌파 여부를 확인해야 하며, 65K·67K·72K가 저항, 주간 종가가 추세선 아래로 마감하면 하락 지속 가능성 언급. 반대로 S&P500 조정 시 자본이 비트코인으로 유입될 수 있다는 시나리오도 제시. 투자 조언 아님을 명시.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. And welcome, welcome back, guys. Let's go and see Bitcoin, but today's question is: can Bitcoin bounce from here or from here even from 57K, guys? Can it bounce back, get back into this 72K bear flag, come back up, hit 83K again and go to 88, if not even $96,000? Million dollar question, though, guys, we have a bullish signal that never fails and I'm talking about this guy right here, eh, Jim Cramer.

02. He's a financial presenter, an American market commentator, and I can guarantee you that every time he's talked badly about Bitcoin, every time he 's said, "Hey, it's time to sell Bitcoin," Bitcoin has gone up at least, at least, at least 16%, and, boy, he just came out in a tweet saying, "Bitcoin and gold, bad money liquidating for SpaceX, Apple, and Nvidia." So, guys, we have a bullish signal here that is worth much more than any kind of analysis.

03. So, look at this, June 21, 2021: "I sold almost all my Bitcoin, BTC, from 31,333 to 68,999, up 120%", December 5, 2022: "Never too late to sell a bad position, from 17,150 to 37,390, up 118%", December 23, 2022: "I wouldn't touch crypto in a million years, from 16,008 to 37,390, up 122%", in January 2024 Bitcoin is unlikely to find support, from 40,600 to 47,000, up 16%, November 22, 2025: "All is not well with Bitcoin, we need to get out", from 83,979 to 93,984, 11-12%.

04. This is the signal we have now. Let's leave aside the graphs and all that . Now, guys, jokes aside , let's go look at some graphs. Let's start with this graph here. Guys, if you haven't subscribed to the channel, I invite you to do so now. You give me a hand, I'll do detailed analyses for you, apart from these fun little things that are starting to add up to statistics, okay, guys?

05. And remember, everything you see on this channel is not financial advice. I'm not a licensed financial advisor, so take my analysis with a grain of salt. Do your research and analysis before entering the market and, if necessary, consult a licensed financial advisor and let's get started. So, let's start from here, guys, usual chart, usual trendline.

06. For the new ones, guys, I'm putting the video here at the top right that shows you why this trendline is important, how it was in the 2022 bear market and how in this cycle from here to the tops we have 119% and in this other one from here to the tops we have exactly here, which is the weekly, Binance weekly time frame, BTC USDT, so with Tether, guys, this weekly candle has not closed below this week here, guys, nor below this week here and this candle here of this week that is developing, for now, is still above this trendline and at the moment even above this internal week here.

07. If we go and look at other movements, look here, this one here, okay, here we were in a bull market, in a bull market, but, guys, for trend reversals, even significant ones, let's see here, we have created a week and recovery, the body of the candle that does not break this level here. Eh, another candle body that doesn't break this level here.

08. These two candlestick bodies, guys, closed flat, if not slightly above the first wick down, so we had some attempts to break down and then rally back up, okay? This is a situation that always appears in the weekly, let's go and see other situations here. Here, okay, we had already analyzed, look here, in the lateralization that could resemble the one we are having now, we had a confirmation of dump with this candle here that broke these internal lows and then the second candle, guys, which closed with the body of the candle below this one.

09. And even with this violent recovery, however, we have not returned to these levels here. Look at another inversion, this one is even more interesting, look here, wick down, okay? Bounce stories, various [ __ ], closing of the last two candles above this wick here, candle bodies, guys. So, here we have the chart of the ISM Purchasing Managers' Index, the PMI, basically, the manufacturing index.

10. Guys, we're at 54, I noticed, and we already made videos a long time ago, I think three months ago, that there is a correlation, okay? Even if it's minimal, there is, between the ISM and Bitcoin, when this goes up and now it's at 54 and it's gone up, guys, it tends to bring Bitcoin up, one, okay? We see it here too, now it's 54, let's look, look at February, March, April, quite stable, but March and April went up, okay?

11. And now we have a 54, so a bullish push, let's say, a little catalyst. Then we also have this which is WALCL, WALCL, which is nothing more than the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve, total assets, okay? Hey, what do we have here? We have quantitative tightening, guys, and despite the rates, despite inflation, despite everything, we still have a trend reversal here , okay?

12. So an injection of liquidity, even if minimal, which still tends to push, belatedly, push Bitcoin a little. We'll keep it there, okay? They are two tokens. Here we have dominance, again, guys, I won't repeat everything. We have a 0.5 Fibonacci, inverse correlation, dominance up, Bitcoin down and vice versa.

13. 0.5 Fibonacci which gave me resistance here, here we dirtied it upwards and now in the collapse, beginning of the collapse, let's say, we stopped here again and we are playing here. Reversal, let's go down, let's come back here, let's come back here, let's go down here, guys, where's the imbalance? No, because if we go down here and it goes to 88k, 90k, okay?

14. For now we are still stable, I am evaluating other options, because everyone is good at telling you "Ah, Bitcoin ETFs have been sold, they have been bought". No, we have to see what could happen before it happens, otherwise I'll do the news, basically, okay, guys? Let's try to understand what is happening behind this whole scenario.

15. Then what do we have? The SPX, therefore the Standard & Poor's 500, which as we said in yesterday's video, if I'm not mistaken, is rising, guys, has started to go down and has support on this channel line, that too, I'll put the video of the SP500 here in the top right. Look here, this is the yellow channel, these are the mini futures, so the chart is a little different, but now we have this downtrend that's keeping us down and then as resistance we'll have this uptrend here and this downtrend here.

16. If we go back up, approximately to 7520, new highs, guys. If we stay below here, there is a risk of going to lower levels. I repeat, go and watch the video, it's all there. So why am I showing this to you ? Because in any case, in addition to the things we've seen so far, there could, there could, in quotes, be a rotation of capital if the Standard & Poor's, instead of collapsing, slowly corrects, goes sideways, but goes down a little, okay?

17. There could be a rotation of capital into Bitcoin. It's difficult, I know, we're in a bear market and all that , but it's not the first time we've seen some pretty strong counter-trend movements in Bitcoin, okay? However, it must be taken into account that there have been a lot of profits [puffing] in gold, profits in Standard & Poor's, in the Nasdaq, in the Nasdaq, okay?

18. There's profit taking, capital always seeks profit, and Bitcoin is low, and Bitcoin can be interesting, okay? This is the reasoning. Take everything with a pinch of salt, okay, we're in a bear market, there's a crash, there's everything, but, guys, I want to put a flea in your ear and it's because I have one too .

19. So, here Bitcoin, as you can see, we are still below this black channel, where this movement that is trying to go up becomes particularly annoying. So, back under the black channel, up to the top of the black channel, here we are in the Binance BTCUSDT timeframe, okay? Black channel here, actually, let's put an even larger time frame, 8 hours, okay?

20. It's clearer this way. Acceleration downtrend , the blue one. Let's go back in here. We have to stop here, guys, at 65,009, we have to stop. Start coming in here, okay? You have another resistance that's kind of a last resort, if you will, here at 67,004, okay? Which is 50% of this black channel, this downtrend basically.

21. If it starts to come up, guys, the top of the channel now, the black one, so this descending trendline is located at, it depends on where we get to, in any case let's put the 72,002, okay? Right at the confluence with the base of the bear flag, which is this dotted line. If we start coming up here, guys, I mean, okay, we have another acceleration line which is this one here.

22. Basically taken from this week to this week and where the pump started up to 82-83k, which could be another resistance. Let's talk about the 80k, by the way there is an imbalance above. But above, guys, above we have other levels. Now I'm not saying we'll get there, I'm telling you we'll go level by level, but once we've broken the level, we'll move on to the next one and move on to the next one, if we have the strength.

23. For now we totally agree, we are still down here, we have not broken this downtrend yet. I'm projecting an unlikely scenario, okay? A particular scenario, but I'm starting to see some signs of a scam, okay? And the first one is Jim Cramer, okay, guys? Now, let's get back to this chart here, guys, always Bitstamp's weekly chart, BTC-USD, okay?

24. Bitcoin with the dollar, not USDT. We have this channel here, seen 2,000 times, very strong as a base, base, base, base here, base here, attempted breakout, reentry week and even this candle didn't break it to the downside, just like the 200, the 200-period moving average, simple moving average, didn't break it, okay?

25. For now, what can we notice, guys? The 50% of this channel that has been acting as resistance for me right here is now located, let's see, let's extend this base of the Bear Flag, we could find it at 74-75,000 dollars and still act as resistance, guys. Then we have this downtrend that has not been touched, taken from these bodies to these bodies, believe me that these levels, look at this level here, taken from this body of the candle to these bottoms, but defined as the tops of the Bear Flag movement, what was it?

26. Got it in January 2026, the one that got us to 97k, okay? Touched and then down. What would happen if we started to re-enter this range here, go above 50% of this channel, therefore above 74-75,000 dollars, considering that the weeks for this movement could be one-two weeks, three weeks even quite violent, okay?

27. We have this trendline here at 81.9, okay? So a countertrend movement liquidates everyone, guys, those who took the shorts from here and then it goes back down, but you also understand that if we go back above this downtrend here, different scenarios open up, the scenario of a top channel at 88k, 87-88 opens up which was an expected target, okay?

28. More than a few people, including me, that is, more than expecting it anyway, it was definitely in the cards, below these two candle bodies here, 87-8, okay, guys? And the absurd, impossible scenario would take us up to 94-95,000 dollars, returning to test this downtrend. To talk about downward continuation, I repeat, I want this week to close below this trendline, we can even make wicks at 66-57k, guys, and sink to 55, but if in the weekly we make a week and we re-enter with the body of the candle above this week down, be very careful because something different could develop, even from here, guys, okay?

29. The important thing is to see the weekly closings. Let's take a quick look at this chart here, let's bring it to the weekly, guys, and do you remember stuff from several months ago, this is on BTC USDT, what was Crypto? Ok, it's something from TradingView. Anyway, we had this downtrend, right? And we had these flat bases that had developed, this was the flat base of this movement that then supported me, you see?

30. Candle bodies, guys. This downtrend here, once we broke to the upside, we came back down, we tested it, okay? Now we could also see another retest that takes us down to 57, we find it at 57, but, guys, if we come back from here we don't break this week down to 57 and a half, 57 and 6, guys, and we come back on this flat base, you also understand that the 86k scenario, so this base here and scenario, let's say, imbalance, where you see this week here, we are at 97, between 93 and 97,000 dollars, let's say that 96,000 dollars is a target, it opens up badly, okay?

31. We are in a particularly delicate moment, in a cycle unlike any other, with a market, let's say, Standard & Poor, Nasdaq and everything else unlike any other, with gold that has pumped like crazy, creating incredible profits, okay? Keep this in mind. This isn't financial advice, guys. Subscribe to the channel and see you on the next episode of Trading Arena Italia. HI.