저자: JoshScandlen · 외국인
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영상은 Ray Dalio가 미국 경제 '심장마비'가 약 3년 내 올 수 있다고 한 발언을 소개한다. 발표자는 미 국채 이자 지급은 주로 미국인 보유자에게 소득이 되므로 부채 자체의 위험은 과장됐다고 본다. 다만 제조업 기반 약화와 서비스 중심 경제로의 전환은 장기적 위험으로 우려하며, 관세 정책을 지지한다. 영국 사례를 들어 서비스 경제의 한계를 강조하고, 미국 경제는 당분간 견고해 미 국채가 영국 채권보다 낫다고 평가한다.
다듬은 글
Ray Dalio says or Dalio Dalio says we got three years before the US economy has a heart attack and his heart attack is too much cholesterol. He actually said that too much cholesterol leads heart attacks. Really? Okay. Interesting. So I'm like yeah boy. Anyways it's kind of funny. I was surprised he actually put a time frame on his uh calamity prediction because most prognosticators never put a time frame on it because they don't want to be held accountable.
and the interviewers and the OddLotss I I'm not sure who does OddLots, Bloomberg or something like that. Uh they were actually able to get them uh to to point to a time which I was stunned by. It's kind of like the climate change insanity. Oh, you know, 20 years Miami will be underwater. You know, 20 years comes and goes.
You're like, well, you know, 20 years now. The whole thing's so stupid. So, I was surprised they're able to pin him down. He didn't say like, I predicted three years the economic heart attack, but he did state it when they asked him. they try to pin him down. He did state it and I was like, "Oh, interesting." Ray Dalio and uh his economic heart attack is going to be caused because we have so much debt.
And uh to the the podcasters uh credit, they said, "Dude, we've we've heard this for years. At some point, isn't like the the boy who cries wolf? We just been hearing it for so long. It never happened." Oh, but this time, my numbers show that this time it will happen. And the reason his reasoning is logical if you if you look at as a private household.
All right. So basically what happens is the US has so much debt that we're paying significant amount of our income in interest. All right. So our income is GDP is 25 trillion. One trillion of that is going uh towards what? Towards interest payments. All right. So one trillion of our income is going to interest payments.
Are we paying off debt or are we adding to it? We're adding to the debt, which means what? That if we add to the debt, we're taking on more debt, which increases our interest payments. That's the theory behind this. At some point, your interest payments are so high that no matter what happens, your income cannot cover it.
Never mind paying off the debt, your income can't cover it. Which is why debt to GD debt to income in a banking perspective is huge. If you have more than 42%, a bank is going to have a hard time loaning you money because they say, "Man, if the income drops or if you take on more debt, at some point your interest is going to be too high relative to your income.
Never mind getting my principal back. It's just too big of a risk." But what that misses is that's a private entity, your household, your Scanland household. But what that misses is who is actually on the receiving end of that in of that interest. Well, it's us, the bond holders. The vast vast vast majority of bond holders of US debt are Americans.
Be it inst institutional firms, pension funds, insurance firms, you and my me, grandpa, Jones, whatnot. You know, what is it a fraction of, I don't know, 15% of all debt held is held by foreigners or something like that. I can't remember the exact amount, but it's not a huge amount. So when the interest when the federal government takes on cash flow deficits, the the in the people who own that are taking on cash flow positives, surpluses.
When there's a a negative net worth on the federal government, there's a positive net worth on the uh the people who own the bonds. In fact, Dalia was going along those lines. I said, "Oh, he's going to get it." I almost like an MMT. I couldn't believe it. He's like he was going along those lines. He was saying for everyone's debt is someone else's asset.
Exactly. Right. Or exactly. But then he went off this tangency that we have too much interest payments and is causing sufficient cash flow deficits to the federal government. I says causing sufficient cash flow deficits to the federal government. It's causing significant cash flow surpluses to the owners of those bonds which is again the vast majority are Americans.
And so as long as we're getting the interest payments, we got to pay tax on those interest payments. we reinvest those interest payments. We might pay down our debt. We might open up a a freaking soup house. I don't know. But as long as we got those interest payments, we the Americans, it's not Germany, it's not China, it's not Japan, it's us.
As long as we're receiving those payments is literally it's just a it's a wash essentially because the federal government is taking on the deficits to pay us. Now, if the economy starts shaking, this is the issue that I have with uh like what's going on with the Green New Deal and stuff. If we can't have a growing economy where people say, "Man, we don't we're not generating enough income in which to continue to pay our interest." All right, other than taking on more debts, essentially refinancing credit card bills over and over and over again.
And the credit card bill keeps getting higher and higher and higher. At some point, you could easily say, "Americans said, "I I don't trust this. At some point, I'm not going to pay for this. I'm not going to invest in government bonds because the economy is not doing well. uh the debt to income is through the roof because our debts are so high, our income is so low that it's becoming problematic.
That's the I'm telling you this is my concern. If you look at the UK economic uh catastrophe that was a the last century, the UK started the century freaking booming and ended the century as a freaking as a sick child of Europe. You know what I'm saying? And the reason for that is because they they literally they sold off all the resources.
They enga just insane enga in Germany the same thing is happening in front of our very eyes and that's scary because once you go this green new deal stuff with with expensive electricity you get rid of your manufacturing all this what is your economy based on that well it's based on services you're importing everything you're basing services uh if you get rid of your manufacturing base we still have a a decentsized manufacturing base we need a bigger which is why I'm a huge advocate of tariffs but at the end of the day you can't have a economy based on services isn't a long-standing economy.
I'll do a video on this. It probably won't get any views comparing very few. The UK who went all free trade, got rid of their manufacturing, whatnot, and they based their whole economy on services and exporting of what? Services. Well, you can't really export services. You just can't. And so now the UK is just is dead, dude.
There's no other way around that. So they imported cheap labor. They imported everything from, you know, cheaper manufactured products. So now they're I mean remember the people in the UK are poorer per capita than the people here in our own state of Mississippi. That's how bad it is. Germany's next dude.
Germany's next. Now the economic model of America because we got Trump in there kicked out sniffy Joe Biden and heels of Harris doesn't have to be this way. And I don't think it will. I think the economic model of America will come back to fruition where we'll re-energize our manufacturing base. It's going to be painful.
It's going to be painful. And I'm not even sure Trump will be around to see the benefits of it, but he's starting to uh a new a new wind across America says we need to regenerate our manufacturing base. Uh exports uh ex uh imports of labor um and then exporting um our our manufacturing jobs. That's that's not going to continue to make the American economy great.
And at some point that will bite us in the butt without question. The question is, is it going to be three years? No. I mean, no one knows. We've been saying this for years and years and years, but that could happen without question that at some point if people say, "American economy sucks. I'm not investing in US government bonds anymore because I'm just investing in service sector, you know, entertainment essentially, the bread and circuses." That's not a solid economy.
But that's just not happening right now. It's just not. We still have a strong manufacturing base. We still are exporting a lot of stuff. Our oil and natural gas, uh, you know, nuclear is going to come back strong. Yeah, we're going to be huge partly of this. Um, wind and solar is dying on the vine as we can see right now.
So, America is here to stay unlike the UK. They just um, you know, I guess they bought the they bought the silliness of this unequivocal free trade for always. And, uh, and as such, they're hurting. But, um, but with that said, the British pound is still stronger than the American dollar for sure. So, I mean, it's not like British is dead just relative to the United States, they are.
But, would you rather invest in a British bond or a US bond? of course a US bond because our economy is still strong and because our economy is still strong we can keep taking the debts uh by because the vast majority of people who own our debts are Americans. So anyway, God bless. Love your thoughts.
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