저자: RayDalio · 외국인
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Dalio는 부채·내부갈등·외부지정학·기후·기술 등 5대 힘이 2024년에 충돌한다고 본다. 미국 대선(바이든·트럼프) 모두 시장에 위협이 되며, 정치적 분열과 수용 여부가 핵심 리스크다. 4% 수준의 채권금리는 인플레이션(3~3.5%)과 실질금리(1~2%)를 감안하면 매력적이지 않고, 시장 전체가 싸지도 비싸지도 않다고 평가한다. 지정학 리스크는 가격에 충분히 반영되지 않았다고 보며, 중립 포트폴리오 유지를 강조한다.
다듬은 글
if if President Biden wins a second term good for the market bad for the market if former president Trump wins a second term good for the market bad for the market I think they're both threatening for the markets both are threatening for the markets okay so there's no alternative which is the better which is the better of the bad Alternatives if that's the case let me let me say why okay diio identifies five major historical forces that are back in Action debt internal conflict external geopolitics climate and technology and guess what they're all colliding in 2024 that is going to weigh and I've been reading you on LinkedIn now because you've been writing Lots about what happens in the midst of these geopolitical crisis but how to think about the economy and in that context well I think as you know I I think there are five major forces that repeated through history and those are the debt money economic Force the internal conflict Force which is the big uh conflict in terms of the elections and so on the external geopolitical Force which is the struggle for the control of the world order the climate issue throughout history climate has killed more people than anything in it Lord knows it's bigger for us now um and then of course technology right and so we have all of these forces coming together in 20124 so if we look at them individually and you put them together they each affect each other right Thee the presidential election and will the will affect the markets and then the markets will also effect the amount of money that we're spending on Wars will have an effect and they are all coming together I think that 24 will be a pivotal year because when we meet next year at this time we will be able to look back on particularly the internal conflict force and particularly the uh geopolitical Force see if that's historically when there's lots of uncertainty it's usually actually the best time to buy well it depends so I think it's more complicated than that I think the markets um mostly for the Magnificent Seven you know you can't look at the markets as a whole right you have to look at the pieces and so and then you have to look at different countries and so the pricing as we had the move down to 4% bond yields and then you have the movement to in equities particularly to those countries uh those companies that they're no longer as cheap as they were before right so I think let's say we start with a bond yield start with an inflation rate then add in a real rate if you so we uh I think that the inflation rate is in the vicinity and likely to be in the vicinity of 3 3 and a 12% we have to start with that then you have to add in a real yield which is between 1 and 2% so we're talking about something when you get to a 4% bond yield you don't that's no longer a really attractive rate and then if you go beyond the bond yield and you say uh uh the bond yield of course affects everything and it's also going to affect what the economy is going to be like this year right because we have to roll over debts and at higher interest rates and so on so I think if you look at that particular thing by any measures it's not um it it it it it's not cheap okay none none of Market not Che cheap okay so the pricing here we are is different than the the environment you can't just look at the environment then you look at what is priced into a market right so if we're looking at the politics the geopolitics I don't think that those risks are priced in because there it's a difficult thing to play in for a market participant how do you deal with that uh and so that uncertainty isn't priced in neither is the geopolitical maybe if you go to China the prices are priced in because of circumstances let me ask you then polit the the the political ramifications on the market if if President Biden wins a second term good for the market bad for the market if former president Trump wins a second term good for the market bad for the market I think they're both threatening for the markets both are threatening for the markets okay so there's no alternative but it's a bad reason which is the better of the bad Alternatives if that's the case let me let me say why okay our big worry I think Mo biggest worry is whether we're going to accept whether both sides will accept the circumstances not just the election whether they will go with the election but whether they will accept the decisions even today we deal with the question of does the Supreme Court rule is there an acceptance of those differences will each live the lives that the others want them to live and we're coming into an environment where even politics is made as a political weapon um so that we're now having fights so even if you take um let the extreme left and the extreme right are at risk if we take um Biden he will not be president likely I mean most people will think that he may not uh be the strong president throughout his term then we're dealing with another part of the democratic party and and then the same you mean Harris you're saying haris and and and a more there is a great conflict between the left and the right and you and you're putting her in a more Progressive then that would be more Progressive and that and I think that you would see a more Progressive Democratic party okay okay so now you have a more Progressive Democratic party and you have a more Progressive um or uh excuse me conservative nationalistic uh party in which the political fight itself is an important thing so the question is um how we get through this in a way where we have sensible governance or do we have irreconcilable differences over many things um living standards it's not it's not just money although taxes will enter into it so the taxes that will come out of this protectionism that comes out of it nationalism uh support for other countries all of that will be different but also it has to do with even how you raise your children in terms of these these types of balances just boil that down to an Investor's point of view if if we're at a higher risks for the market no matter what happens if either of those two candidates win and you don't like the payment you're getting for us treasuries what do you do I think the question is do you know what your neutral position is like like I find that the markets right now are not um either super attractive or super unattractive generally speaking aside from the politics and so you're going to come into this environment where there's going to be greater risk particularly taking that factor and the G and the world Factor right and so then what is your neutral position I have a neutral portfolio Okay my neutral portfolio is a diversified portfolio that I won't take the time to get into but I you go closer to your neutral portfolio right um let me ask you another question a neutral portfolio doesn't emphasize cash is always people think you go closer to cash that's not right because cash is a trashy investment over a long period of time but what is balance how do you balance that portfolio you go to neutral you should know what your neutral portfolio is and go closer to um we always talk about crises and there are a lot of crises and a lot of folks who are involved in crises that are here uh if you will the president of Israel's uh going to be getting here I believe on Wednesday president zinsky who I think you saw this morning is here uh we have Anthony blinkin who's here trying to sort through some of these things and the premier of China is here and there are all of these sort of various crosscurrents that are taking place a world where the biggest players are looking for a back door welcome to the great reset
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