저자: 미상 · 외국인
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영상은 엔비디아 실적(매출 성장 80%+, 가이던스 상회, 자사주 매입 180억달러 등)과 AI 인프라 수요 지속을 긍정적으로 평가하며 주가가 실적 대비 둔감하게 반응한 이유를 분석한다. 일부 애널리스트 견해로 포워드 PER이 낮고 성장 가속이 지속된다고 주장. 별도 구간에서는 유가 급등 가능성, 이란 긴장, 금리 상승 등 거시 리스크도 언급한다. 엔비디아 1~3개월 방향에 대한 직접적 발언은 명시적으로 드러나지 않음.
다듬은 글
Well, I think Elon Musk did something very clever. There are three ways for him to win. One is that he tied up these guys, OpenAI, so that maybe he can come in first. You want to come first in the shoot cuz that's when the most money will be. There's that's the most that's left. Second, it's having been in big-time trials, unfortunately, it's just pure torture.
And he tortured these guys but good. I mean, there's nothing like being deposed forever. It's really rather extraordinary. And then, you know, I I I think he he made it could have won. So, I mean, that he he could have won. He got to torture them. The richest man gets to torture everybody. It's Again, if you've ever been deposed, you know it's one of the most embarrassing, horrible things you can do.
And now he gets first in the queue, so he gets the most money and not worry about whether people are out of money cuz these deals are big. Maybe he pulls in like four or five billion trillion. Four or five trillion. I'm not kidding. If they price the thing wrong, they just do a sliver, it's entirely possible that it gets to be four four trillion, five trillion.
It's as absurd as that is, but I think it was you know, it was kind of a strategy and it was a good one. When you read the the piece in the journal today, you just say, "Wow, their lawyers just made, you know, thick They just pulled the wings off the flies that are OpenAI." And you know, it's kind of a terrible thing if you've ever been
In other words, a lot of people were saying immediately for the past hour or so, "What a win for OpenAI? You know, what a win for Sam Altman? He survives." And you're saying that we need to think about this as a strategic move by Musk, right? And you're talking about that IPO still it's the first, it's the biggest.
Right. But you want to have if you need Let's say that you do 10% of the thing. I mean, it's a huge amount of money that they need to bring this deal. And you don't want people to be out of money by the time they get to the third guy. I mean, OpenAI may now be the third after Anthropic. And you want to be first.
Whoever is first wins. So, yeah, I think it was a good strategy. Look, I think it's great that Open OpenAI had a quick victory, but did they? I mean, I think that you really wanted to do is Joining us now Roger Altman is founder and senior chairman of Evercore. Welcome back. We're We're here on Friday for for a different reason.
That was That was a great segment, but Thank you for having me. Yeah, you're welcome. And we we always you know, you're founder of Evercore. You should You know about money as well as as a lot of things about your own personal experiences. Why is the stock market shrugging off so many what would be perceived as as headwinds or or really I mean more than just headwinds with $106 oil and and rates backing up and no no idea how this ends in in Iran at this point.
Well, I think the big question of the moment uh including reflecting events over the last two or three days is whether we're now at a tipping point in terms of the oil market. And whether uh uh we're about to see over the next say 2 weeks really uh substantially higher oil prices. Why would that happen?
Because 12 to 14 million barrels a day have been taken out of the oil market against the average daily global consumption of about 102 million barrels. Okay. And that effect has been cushioned I think Dan Yergin might have referred to this uh by high inventories. A lot of tankers at sea that were full.
Uh strategic petroleum reserves which have been released and high China inventories. All those now have been drawn down a lot and about to really lose their cushioning effect on the market. So the the oil experts I talk to tell me that pretty soon we're going to see the spread between the price that people actually pay for physical crude when they actually want to be it to be delivered to them and the paper price on our screens is about to widen.
And then the paper price will go up a lot a lot. And the underlying question is, will can markets be able to maintain in the face of that? Uh I would be skeptical of that, but I don't really I can't be sure. You're right that the underlying momentum of the markets, which I think is driven by corporate profits and a strong US economy, is is powerful.
Uh I mean, we have a huge boom in business fixed investment going on. It's centered in AI, but it's not limited AI. A lot of a lot of manufacturing investment, a lot of machine learning robotics related investment. Uh we have a Brazilian consumer. Uh the wealth effect of the stock market on consumer spending, clean balance sheets, the fiscal impact of the one big beautiful bill.
Um and we have a high rate of new business formation cuz technology is is lowering the barriers to entry to starting businesses. So, the conditions of the markets and the economy before we may see these high oil prices really very good. So, are we at a tipping point? You know, uh a lot of oil experts think we are.
And if we have $150 oil or worse, will that destabilize markets and the economy? Maybe. So far, people have been up until the last couple of days relaxed about inflation because they think the underlying rate hasn't hasn't risen. And they think fundamentally the energy driven increases are temporary.
But we're at a stalemate in Iran. There are really no good options. And uh the Iranians are emboldened, it seems, by you know, their own tenacity. There might be good options, but it depends on whether you're a like a raving neocon that that uh nation builder. I mean, I read this piece in the journal today.
There is an outline for what we need to do, but it includes boots on the ground, it includes uh destroying infrastructure, it includes just really bringing these people in the this leadership into submission uh and and reopening the straight and there is there's a case it can be made it would be another tough decision by by President Trump to do that it with with the midterms.
Can I ask you you talked about the market Hey, the video and we just delivered another quarter that would normally send the stock exploding higher. Instead the market barely reacted and that's perfectly captured the strained position of Nvidia now occupies in the financial world. The company reported revenue growth above 80% and guidance came in billions above the expectation.
Gross margin held near the 75% despite the rising memory cost. Data centers growth remain explosive and the company authorized another massive 18 billion dollars shares buyback and Nvidia increases dividend by roughly 25 times. For almost any other company on earth those numbers will trigger absolute chaos in the stock but Nvidia traded nearly flat.
Why? Because well traders has become almost numb to Nvidia dominance. Analysts are now openly discussing the law of large number problem. Nvidia has become so massive that investors struggle psychologically to believe the company can continue growing this quickly but somehow it's keep happening. One analyst called this quarter even stronger than Nvidia usual pattern.
The company beat expectation by roughly 2 billion dollars and guided about 4 billion dollars above the consequences. Stronger than the typical Nvidia beat and race angle investors to become a commodus to and yet many investors still seem hesitant and part of the hesitations comes from positioning. Almost everyone already owns Nvidia.
It's the largest company in SP 500. Eight out of 10 institutional investors already hold meaningful exposure. That's created a strange situation where the fundamentals remain extraordinary but finding incremental buyers become harder because ownership is already so crowded. Still many analysts argue the stock is discriminately unappreciated.
That sound absurd when discussing a company worth nearly $5 trillion. But the argument actually become compelling once you look at the valuation related to growth. Several Several analysts now says Nvidia is one of the cheapest AI stock in the market. And why? Because the company may be trading in the low to mid-20s on forward earning while the growing revenue above the 80%.
So, even the argue Nvidia's real forward multiple is closer to the mid-teens once it's fully adjust for accelerating earning. That's kind of growth profile almost never exists at this scale. And importantly, Nvidia growth is not slowing. It's accelerating. That's the key detail many investors still hasn't the fully absorbed.
Most mega-cap companies eventually decelerate as they grow larger, but Nvidia continue accelerating despite already becoming the one of the largest cooperation in human history. That's why several analysts now describe Nvidia not simply as a stock anymore, but almost it's an own asset class representation global AI compute infrastructure.
Because nearly every part of the AI ecosystem is still depend on Nvidia in some way. Memory suppliers depend on Nvidia demand. Optical companies depend on Nvidia systems. Similarly, equipment firms depend on Nvidia expansion. And cloud cloud providers depend on Nvidia infrastructure. Even computing AI architecture still operate inside a market Nvidia largely created.
One analyst explained it bluntly, "None of the derivatives AI trades work unless the Nvidia itself continue working. And right now Nvidia is still working extremely well." At the same time, the AI race itself continue accelerating globally. Hyperscalers are spending aggressively. New cloud providers are expanding rapidly.
Enterprises deployment are increasing so reason AI projects are growing internationally. And private AI labs like OpenAI and Anthropic continue pushing the infrastructure demand higher at extreme speed. According to analysts, this global race for AI infrastructure is happening while the entire industry remains supply constrained.
These are the shortage across the wafers, memory, opticals, CPUs, substrates, and the packaging capacity. Demand still exceeds supply almost everywhere. That's why Nvidia full stack advantage matters so much. Many hyperscalers are building internal chips for specific workload. Google has TPUs, Amazon has Trainium, and Microsoft is developing custom accelerators.
But analysts continue arguing that Nvidia maintains dominance because flexibility matters in no
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