Billionaire Bill Miller | GOING ALL IN BITCOIN!!😱 (Here Is Why)

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결론: 빌 밀러는 비트코인을 '디지털 금'으로 보고 장기 보유를 주장하며, 공급이 고정된 자산이라 수요가 공급 증가율(약 1.5%)보다 빠르게 늘면 가격이 오를 것이라고 봄. 비트코인 투자 배경: 2014년 아르헨티나 출신 웬세스 카사레스의 강연을 계기로 정부 압수·인플레이션에 대한 보험 성격으로 비트코인을 보유하기 시작함. 자산의 1% 정도를 권장한 그의 견해에 공감했다고 함. 매매 이력: 초기 매수 후 일부 매도했다가 2022년 초 66,000달러 고점 이후 하락한 3만 달러 부근에서 재매수, 이후 관련 투자를 추가해 옴. 변동성 및 리스크: 비트코인은 세 차례 80% 이상 하락한 적이 있어 매우 변동성이 크고 레버리지 거래는 위험하다고 경고함. 과거 80년대 초반 수준에서 지지받은 패턴을 언급함. 관련 종목: 보유 펀드 내 스트롱홀드 디지털(채굴업체, CEO 지분 35%, 2년 내 주당 6~8달러 가능성 언급)과 마이크로스트래티지를 보유 중이라고 밝힘. 가치 논쟁: 워런 버핏의 '내재가치 없음' 비판을 반박하며, 희소한 수집품·미술품과 마찬가지로 수요·공급이 가치를 결정한다고 주장함. 금은 채굴 증가로 가격 상승 시 공급이 늘지만 비트코인은 2100만 개 상한이 고정돼 있다고 설명함. 기술 채택 관점: 비트코인을 인터넷·전기 등 새 기술의 성장 궤적에 비유하고, 브라이언 아서의 수확체증·경로의존 이론으로 설명함. 스탠 드러켄밀러의 '문제를 찾는 해법' 비판에는 모든 신기술이 처음엔 그랬다고 반박함. 전망: 단기 가격 예측은 명시하지 않았고 장기적으로 수요가 1.5%를 넘어 성장하면 가격이 '불가피하게' 오를 것이라는 견해를 밝힘.

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01. i'd say it's a combination of of things as it would have to be to allow something to get that bigger part of your portfolio because you know it's it goes against many of the tenets of of uh financial discipline um on the other hand the people that actually are the richest people in the country all are massively concentrated you know buffett and berkshire jeff bezos mark zuckerberg so they're not they're not widely diversified they may be they're highly concentrated and i think that's because they have a high degree of confidence or have a high degree of confidence in the in the value of those investments but my my thinking here was that um i heard a talk on on bitcoin given by the person who's known as patient zero in the bitcoin world wences casares and wences gave a talk at the allen company sun valley conference and he led off his talk this is 2014 i want to say uh he let off his talk by saying that asking how many anybody owned bitcoin nobody in the audience owned it except for him and did anybody know what it was and a few scattered hands went up and he said well let me explain to you um why i own bitcoin and he said and it's because i understand why you wouldn't understand it because you all live in america and you have a rule of law and you have uh you know orderly governments and in most in most times you have you know low relatively low inflation in a prosperous economy and he said but i'm from argentina and my family's been there 150 years and we've been wiped out four separate times by the argentinian government seizing our assets nationalizing the banks inflating us out with hyperinflation and he said so bitcoin can't be touched by the government it's a it's a peer-to-peer decentralized independent network it's a ledger that records every transaction that's public it's immutable and he said so the government if you have bitcoin the government cannot take it away from you and he said so it's think of it as an insurance policy and he went into it and talked about it and i thought you know and he talked about putting one percent of your liquid net worth in bitcoin and i thought that was sensible he laid out what it what it could do if it worked he said then that it was very risky because then it was about 200 but i i bought some then and i bought a little bit more over time and it became 500 and then i stopped buying it and i didn't buy it for years until just the spring of this year it hit a 66 000 high price and then in four weeks it was in half now bitcoin has gone up on average 170 a year for the last 11 years now but that's not every year it's just an average it's gone down three different times by more than 80 percent so that's that is you know a very volatile and therefore very dangerous if you're especially if you're levered as you can be if you're on some of these exchanges that'll loan you 50 to one on on your bitcoin but um each time it's been stopped at around the 80 low 80s level and has come back and this year this time i started buying it again at 30 000 down from 66 and my reasoning was there's a lot more people using it now there's a lot more money going into it in the venture capital world there are a lot of people who are skeptics who are now at least uh trying it out and uh and i thought maybe maybe 50 is a good stopping point for it but if it goes bad down 80 or 85 i'll buy it all the way down well it did stop right around 50 and slowly started its way back up again but i i bought a fair amount uh at you know at the 30 000 range and have been adding to various bitcoin related uh investments since then so uh there's a company that you know that we own in our in our income fund called stronghold digital which is a bitcoin mining company where the ceo owns 35 percent it looks like they could make you know six to eight dollars in a couple of years and they're very low-cost miner of bitcoin and the all their energy that they're using the electricity usage is all renewables or uh it gets credits for cleaning up abandoned coal mines so it's one of those things that um uh i mean as much as i like bitcoin you know i've added a but uh stronghold in here and own it also via the fund as well as microstrategy and some other companies there's several different several different ways to approach that um i i would say that right now it's it's best thought of as digital gold so it's gold as as people said a store of value for 5 000 years and gold is what people typically fled to when the government's tried to you know inflate them out and in the united states franklin d roosevelt confiscated everybody's gold in 1933.

02. you had to turn it in or you went to jail so they can't confiscate your bitcoin because there's nothing they if you hold it securely as long as you have an internet connection you can you can send it somewhere instantaneously at very low very low cost and the reason i the reason i i like the insurance company analogy is because if you think about people talk about the intrinsic value of bitcoin this is a warren buffett argument that bitcoin has no intrinsic value it doesn't have any earnings it'll never pay any dividends uh and so so how do you even think about something like that it is a new technology it's something that couldn't be done before but in any case the answer that i have to that is well i mean what's the what's the intrinsic value of that mickey mantle baseball card that sold for five and a half million dollars it's just cardboard and it doesn't even have a leg it could be counterfeited very easily uh or what's the intrinsic value of a picasso painting which just canvas and paint uh and uh you know maybe a frame but people will pay millions or tens of millions of dollars for it and so it comes down at the very basic level for supply and demand so bitcoin is the only economic entity where the supply is unaffected by the demand so even with gold if gold which is 1800 today if gold goes to 18 000 there will be a lot more gold mined because mines that are unprofitable will become profitable and so gold which which accretes today the production of gold is about equal about one and a half to two percent of the total value per year that's the same uh accretion that bitcoin has currently that but this year 2022 i think we'll drop below 1.5 on that so only only 21 million bitcoin can ever be created or close to it it doesn't matter if bitcoin is 100 000 or or 20 million there's only going to be that many of them so um all you have to really believe is that the demand for bitcoin will grow faster than one and a half percent you know over the next number of years and the price inexorably will go up so i i've only recently been allowing myself to be described as a bitcoin bull i i used to tell people oh you're a bitcoin bull you own a lot of bitcoin i'm like i do own a lot of it but i'm actually a bitcoin observer and i'm observing its trajectory as a new technology and comparing it to the trajectories of things like the printing press or the steam engine or the railroads or the automobile or electricity and and it's following that very uh uh not not predictable because it's not predictable certainly in the early days a well understood path for the adoption of new technologies and you know stan i think it was stan druckenmiller uh said uh earlier in the year that and and now he owns bitcoin by the way um but he said that bitcoin was a solution in search of a problem and what i've found amusing about that is every new technology is a solution in search of a problem because you have a new technology trying to figure out what you're going to do with it and so you know when you when we created the internet what are we going to do with that so uh the defense department had used good uses for it but it was tough for other other people to see and but now everybody can see what the value of the internet is the internal combustion engine which was very dangerous and all but now that's taken over the world and now we're going to move to to electricity so all kinds of technologies have to grow into their uh grow into their potential and bitcoin is i guess you want the theoretical answer to the question is that's the work of brian arthur santa fe institute and and stanford who is kind of the leading authority on what he calls increasing returns economics and what he calls lock-in and path dependence in the economy so his basic idea is that when technologies reach a certain dominance and they're the leader it's almost impossible to dislodge them even without a very superior technology you