저자: MohamedEl-Erian · 외국인
요약 보기
호르무즈 해협 봉쇄가 지속되며 아시아·유럽의 에너지 물량 부족 위험이 커지고 있다. 해협 재개방 기대로 유가 10% 급락·금리 하락·주가 상승이 있었으나 재봉쇄로 되돌아갈 가능성이 크다. 디에스컬레이션 과정은 길고 선박·생산 정상화에도 수주~수개월이 걸리며, 에너지 가격 충격과 인플레이션 위험이 남는다. 공급망 재편과 제조업 리쇼어링 논의가 확산될 것으로 본다. 시장은 매우 유동적이므로 하루 뉴스에 과잉 반응하지 말아야 한다.
다듬은 글
Every day this trade is closed, countries get closer to running out of physical supplies of energy. That is already a big problem in Asia. We heard yesterday that Europe has 6 weeks of aviation fuel left. So, we opening the straight is really important to avoid a quantity rationing that is in certainly in Asia's future and if this continues for weeks, it will be in Europe's future as well.
Let's now um discuss what's happening in the Middle East and a cargo vessel has been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz damaging containers on board, the British military has said. The UK Maritime Trade Operations Center said that an unknown projectile hit the vessel 25 nautical mine miles northeast of Oman.
Now, earlier gunfire was reported after at least two merchant vessels tried to pass through the waterway according to the Reuters news agency. The report comes after Iran reversed its very brief re-opening of the Strait. We discussed that yesterday afternoon claiming that the US had not met its obligations.
In a brief comment to reporters this afternoon, President Donald Trump played down the significance. They have no leaders, they have no nothing. It is regime change. You call that enforced regime change, but we're talking to them. They wanted to close up the straight again, you know, as they've been doing for years and they can't blackmail us.
Well, let's now speak with Mohamed El-Erian. Mohamed is an Egyptian-American economist and a former CEO of the American investment management firm PIMCO. Um Mohamed, welcome to the show. Good afternoon. Thanks for having me. How concerning is it to hear that ships are still potentially being fired on?
It's concerning for two reasons. The first, after yesterday's announcement that Iran was re-opening the Strait, there was hope for a series of confidence-building measures. There was hope for confidence-building. Instead, both sides went backwards. Um the US said that they would not lift the blockade of Iranian ports, and Iran followed this morning by saying that they're going to close the straits again.
So, that's the first problem is that you're not getting momentum towards significant de-escalation. The second problem, Asia, is very simple. Every day this strait is closed, countries get closer to running out of physical supplies of energy. That is already a big problem in Asia. We heard yesterday that Europe has 6 weeks of aviation fuel left.
So, we opening the strait is really important to avoid a quantity rationing that is in certainly in Asia's future, and if this continues for weeks, will be in Europe's future as well. And of course, what's very difficult for for businesses and people all around the world were so relying on this strait, and as you said, were so relying in terms of the energy that that that goes through.
And yet, we're in this situation where the strait is opening, closing, opening, closing. I mean, that's causing huge damage to to business. Now, obviously, there's a huge amount of politics going on between Iran and America and Israel. But do you think business voices are and economic voices are being heard in the mix?
I think President Trump is sensitive to economic and particularly market voices. However, he's not in control. And even if the straits were open, it wouldn't come back quickly the supply of energy. Think if you're a shipowner, and you've got ships stuck there. Your first priority is to get them out.
And you're going to be quite timid about the risks that you're going to take. And then when you get your ships out, and there's about 800 ships stuck there, when you get them out, are you really going to send new ones in? You're going to wait and see. So, it's not as if you can turn the switch back on and everything works perfectly.
So, yes, there are a lot of economic and market voices speaking out, but the reality on the ground is such that they get overwhelmed by the difficulty of a serious and sustained de-escalation process. Mhm. And look, yesterday when the street was was open, we saw oil prices beginning to fall. Now that Iran has said that it it's closed them again, what's happening with the price of oil right now?
So, as you rightly said, oil prices plummeted 10% yesterday. That brought down borrowing cost, yields came down, that pushed up equity prices because people thought that we're getting back to normal. If the markets were open today, which they're not, we would have seen a reversal of all three. We would have seen high oil prices, higher borrowing cost, and lower equities.
Now, between now and when markets reopen on Monday, a lot can happen, but I think the message is that this is a very very fluid situation, and you should not overreact to any one bit of news because it can be reversed the next day. A- and this uncertainty is very very difficult for for business um at the moment.
I mean, if there was an agreement between America and Israel and and Iran, and let's say a ceasefire did hold, how long do you think it would take before things, and I say this in inverted commas, got back to normal? So, it would take some time. Um the most critical thing is getting energy supplies back to normal.
It's a function of getting the shipping lanes free again, but it's also a function of restarting production. Um a lot of production sites have shut down because there's nowhere for the gas and there's nowhere for the oil to go. So, that takes weeks. What also takes weeks is to get the price shock out of the system.
So, we already know that we are facing higher energy cost. That's not going to go away anytime soon. And as the Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said a couple of days ago, there's a risk that this becomes a broader inflationary process. So, unfortunately, we are will still feel the price effect.
And then thirdly, is exactly what you said. It takes time for business to have confidence to go back to assuming everything is normal. So, this is not again like a light switch. We don't switch it back on. It's going to take some time, but the critical issue now is to get back on the road of de-escalation so that we can start the process.
And look, obviously we we we're all focusing a lot on the the Strait of Hormuz, but do you think as a result of this international commerce and shipping routes are going to have to have a a serious look at how to diversify, about not being so reliant on certain routes? I mean, is this going to merit a much bigger discussion about the fragility of supply chains?
Because after COVID, and of course there was a an incident a few years ago where a big tanker got got stuck somewhere, and that really affected a lot of shipping and and businesses as well across the world. Are we going to have to start having a a different look at these supply chains? Um the answer is yes, but it's not easy to actually implement that.
So, you're right, after COVID we thought that we would build much more resilience in our supply chains. Then there was the ship that got stuck in the Suez Canal. right. [snorts] Then, don't forget, the Houthis attacked the Red Sea and disrupted the Red Sea shipping lane. Then we've had the straits. Um there's always questions about the Taiwan straits.
So yes, these are areas of concern. But Asia is not easy to rewire the supply chains. It takes time, it takes money. And I think countries and companies realize that resilience is really important. And just to explain what you mean by resilience, Mohammed. So let's take it something very simple. Um you you you ship a certain product out of a part of the world, you have one factory there, and then you realize that the shipments can be disrupted.
So the obvious thing is I'm going to go build another factory somewhere else. And a third one somewhere else. Well, first that takes time. Secondly, you have to find the labor. And third, it costs money. So it's not it's something that people talk about, but actually implementing it in a comprehensive manner hasn't happened as yet.
So we're going to remain very sensitive to shocks. And we are living in a world which for good reason is subject to more frequent shocks and more violent shocks. So resilience becomes really important in the environment in which we are living in. And just to follow on from that, I mean it feels like the the kind of previous few decades there has been this orthodoxy about globalization and the many benefits that globalization brings.
And as you see, offshoring a lot of manufacturing, you know, you see lots of manufacturing move from the West European countries over to um Asia and and other countries like that because it's as you see it's cheaper for them, cheaper labor, different labor standards, etc. etc. Do you think now there will be a serious discussion across different democracies in different countries about building up their own manufacturing base and and producing more things closer to home?
Yes, and it has started. It started in 2017 when President Trump imposed the first round of tariffs. Then COVID emphasized it. Then again when we got more tariffs last year and now this. Um Look, there were three things that used to unify the world and limit the shocks. And one of them was this almost almost universal belief in globalization.
Mhm. That by integrating countries, goods, services, finance, not only do you exploit efficiencies, but you reduce conflict. We didn't pay attention to distributional effects. We didn't pay attention to people being left out. And globalization has been upended by domestic politics. Because of that, we are somewhere between fragmentation of the system where there's impunity, no one believes in the rule of law, the multilateral institutions don't have much of an influence to what former Prime Minister Gordon Brown calls managed globalization light.
We're somewhere between there, but we're certainly not back to globalization and part of when countries look at that, the first thing they think about is globalization used to be pooled insurance. We insured each other. Now it's about self-insurance. I need to insure myself. Yes, it is going to be really interesting to see if this does um catalyze a a a a re-look at everybody's, you know, industrial strategy and labor strategy and you know, not just outsourcing everything to different parts of the world.
I mean, to be fair, as you say mentioning Donald Trump, he has been talking about re-industrializing America for quite some time now. That has been a big part of his his argument. I mean, I don't think, you know, anybody quite envisioned it playing out like this, but it is something that people are going to be thinking about a lot more going forward.
And a final question to you, Mohamed. The markets before they open on on Monday, do you think that will put pressure on on Donald Trump to try and, you know, get another deal with the Iranians before the markets open on Monday? I think so. And if that doesn't happen, he will do what has been very effective and it's called verbal intervention.
He will say that everything is fine. He will say we're very close to a deal. Um, and he it's been incredibly effective Asia in calming down markets. So, yes. He is very sensitive to what the market does. He's very proud that the US stocks have gone from record to record. It's been the fastest recovery from a 10% loss to new record highs.
And I think he has he he he is very proud of that. So, he will do what he can to try and maintain the markets in a good place. Mhm. Well, a really fascinating discussion, Mohamed. Thank you so much for your time. Thank you. That was Mohamed El-Erian, who is an Egyptian-American economist. Very interesting discussion.
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