저자: 짐크레이머 · 외국인
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결론: 금리 인상 우려로 주가가 급락한 상황이지만 과도한 공포 매도는 피하고, 연준의 완만한 대응과 기업 실적 확인을 기다리는 것이 낫다는 입장. 시장 상황: 다우 약 478포인트(-1.8%) 하락, S&P500도 약 1.8% 하락하며 장중 저점 근처. 3대 지수 모두 4월 이후 최악의 하루. 금리와 연준: 금리 인상이 계속되면 주식 보유에 부담이 되므로 완만하고 신중한 인상이 바람직하다고 주장. 파월 의장의 대응 방식과 트럼프 대통령의 발언이 독립성 문제를 낳는다고 언급. 경기 판단: 소비 경제는 비교적 양호하고 은행 자본 상태도 2007년보다 낫다고 평가. 다만 주택 가치 하락과 특정 산업(건설·산업재 관련 PPG 등)의 약화는 우려 요인으로 제시. 원자재·관세·인플레이션: 철강 등 원자재 비용 상승, 관세와 보복 관세, 유가 상승, 트럭 기사 부족 등이 인플레이션의 상당 부분이 인위적(man-made)이라고 주장. 무역 갈등은 중국과의 싸움으로 보고 부수적 피해를 감수해야 한다고 설명. 종목 언급: 마이크론(Micron) 언급. 단기적으로 재고 조정으로 실적 부진이 예상되지만 재고 조정이 끝나면 자사주 매입 등 긍정적 신호가 나올 수 있다는 중기 관점. 포드는 부정적 예로 언급. 투자 전략: 패닉 매도보다는 401k 등에 분할 투자하는 것이 낫다고 권유. 본인은 자녀 명의 자금을 일부 S&P 관련으로 추가 매수했다고 밝힘. 뉴욕 부동산은 보유 유지 입장. 리스크: 연준 정책 실수, 무역 갈등 장기화, 원자재 비용 상승, 주택 시장 약화가 주요 위험 요인. 출연자 전망: 단기 조정 가능성은 인정하나 강세 전망 유지, 2018년 당시 '1987년 같은 폭락은 아니다'라는 입장.
다듬은 글
as I agree with jpowel that we should rate another rate hike this year want to get those rates up but typically what happens is we're supposed to say don't fight the Fed and don't fight the tape raising rates means you're not supposed to own stocks or you're supposed to lighten up the tape obviously very bad today that was something the late Marty's wide goal taught us and I think it makes a lot of sense but rates are still relatively low but any bit higher and we're starting to see what the different shocks in the system and what you really want is a Fed that says wow you know what this may be a little too fast too much now I know the president said that that puts a che palle in a box because the president doesn't I wish he didn't comment on it because then j-pal obviously feels he has to exercise independence but it when you have a rate cycle that goes up what you're really hoping is is that the Fed does it slowly and deliberately and that allows stocks to go up I don't want the Fed doesn't I don't want the Fed to mandate stock higher higher prices that's what the Chinese do it seems like a fool's game but I do want to say listen it's disconcerting but as everybody gets disconcerted about it I get less disconcert we do want to point out that we are at fresh session lows right now with the Dow down by 478 points that's good for a decline of 1.8% the S&P 500 is down by 1.8% 28:28 is the level it's damage being done to this tape yes yeah definitely and I think that it's it's very difficult to have a situation where the Fed says listen we're going to overshoot and what that says is listen a lot of people say I got a sell now I want a longer-term I think you're really crazy to do that okay because I think there's so many things that are good I understand you get every guest it talks about 19 years 87 I was in cash from 1987 I was in cash for the crash so maybe I have some ability to opine on that crash and I would tell you it's nothing like that these stocks aren't nearly as expensive we don't have a policy that is of insuring portfolios so that all of a sudden you have this kind of lockstep decline should we have etf's in the system a papasan he talks a lot about how they can accelerate it decline but look the economy is pretty good it's just that I don't think it's as good as j-pal thinks and I say that because of things like PPG came under yesterday a little company called tren Co that it's involved with lots of different kinds of plastic building box the line or board coming down I don't see a lot of sectors that are doing well housing properties are actually coming yeah your house is going my house is going down and value yes many people's houses are going down in value that's not the time when you slam on the mortgage you're good a father said works just what your house is losing value because it's just gonna lose more value not a lot of houses your trading yet don't trade lower and when they do Jay pal will look back and say wow I didn't mean is there any risk that they that the decline in housing values could do to the market what it did in 2007 fortunately not because the loan-to-value that people have in the FICO scores ever much better so I don't want to conflate this to it would be wrong in the capital positions of the banks are better ok arguably the batch of in here we didn't have as much less lending because the balance sheets of the consumers so good but you know what we have to separate the consumer economy and we're a service economy I admit but also from when you look at there's many different categories of employment and some of them have very much weakened and when I see minor board which is my father sold liner put four years that's like the basic thought-out like shipping okay that's showing genuine weakness now all you also see always here from the bull the guys were saying hey listen Jim you got that wrong there's too much capacity coming one well these guys are not knuckleheads they they put on a lot of capacity because things were booming they're cooling now the tariffs the retaliation but it's cooling things the sentiment can change it's always fragile any sort of economy can be fragile and when Jay pal said what he did an Amazon raised wait you know Amazon suddenly there's the minimum wage setter for the United States I don't think so but what you have heard people say listen I got to get out and I feel it's bad and I don't want to scare people because I don't think I think it can be reversed well it can be reversed we're now seeing all three major indices their worst day since April absolutely what what about this is a surprise I mean in inflation emerging market weakness rising yields is any of this such a big surprise that would be driving at this kind of $0.78 you know wage hike year-over-year I mean we got these big tax cuts so workers would get more money so you know I think it's a shame that pal things and there are other people come on our network and say look this is really run amok inflation inflation I think it's a shame that we shouldn't allow people to get jobs and make one this isn't my old shop steward let me think I'm just I just really feel like hey listen it'sit's not as dangerous but that's why he's raising what hop-up this what would Janet Yellen do what would she do I think I know what she would do I think she would listen to programs like this and listen to what's happening in the marketplace and with housing and she would listen to what's happening in industrial she listen what's happening in construction and in orders you say you know what I raised rates and now let's see what happens for that's what Janet Yellen would do and I really miss Janet Yellen I miss her because what she would do is say you know what I need more inputs I'll look at the markets down 500 words maybe we should make some calls yeah maybe that what is that PPG let's look at that where is that go you know what she was did she was a student okay she was a student she wasn't a teacher she was a student and she learned from many people and she had no you Burris and she was not a rookie and I don't like what's happening at the Fed because the Fed has decided like Ben Bernanke in 2005 we got to put a stop to this even as they knew absolutely nothing in 2006 here's a question if one of the chapters in the lesson book is the company conference calls during this earnings season and we hear more company conference calls like PPG where they're talking about rising input costs we've heard it not just from PPG when I heard it from Pepsi and Procter & Gamble on steel does it make Jay Powell less or more likely to raise rates because you could look at it both ways you could look at it as this is slowing the economy down this is a real impact on the stock market and we're gonna step back or you can say it is inflationary we have inflation to fights why Barry Stern look going today you know it's more about real estate than almost anybody in the world and he's saying listen steel costs have gone up so much they no longer pays to build to build right and now that's you know is that what does that stop the economy well how about JP JP L should watch the show tonight no but I mean these fat guys I mean Kenny yelling you someone get every input even if it's this little portion is what mad money is okay but you gotta listen to Barry Stern like he is saying this feels already slowing not worth building this bar guys are saying pulling back not worth building that's a man-made problem we're trying to take on the Chinese when you take on the Chinese there's casualties there's collateral damage there's a foreign 89 point down the Klein in the Dow a lot of that's collateral damage to what the Fed wants to do and by the way I hear many people say that Peter Navarro is in charge they're fools those who say that he's not in charge do not do enough homework to be in the room because he'll isn't home he's driving in very much in charge because the president has had it with China he's told me so many times in the 2005 6:18 totally just um how'd it with child well now it's only accentuate so I think that some of it is man-made look if we had more oil we did the Iranian sanctions that caused oil to spike now we don't have enough truckers because we changed the rules you can only drive 50 hours a week if you speak to engine or you speak to the people you Johnson you a lot of what's happening in inflation is man-made so it's not going to stop if jpowel it look like chantal's using a sledgehammer I think if you step back and said well let's see how we're already do how many interest rate right how many interest rate hikes is the market pricing in for next year we know they're pricing in one more this year right is it three or four well I think that the decline wall accentuate you know celebrate if j-pal doesn't walk things back doesn't walk things you see the president listen to the data there's the problem let's say I say you have to get out now because he's doing the whole thing but what happens if he says you know what I do want it you know I said some things last week about overshooting and what I really meant to say is I don't want to understand I don't want to overshoot that's something we have a big rally and people say why did that clown Kramer come on and save to sell everything I'm not saying that this foe is gonna come on in 1987 I mean you know what when I was in winning the cash 1987 was because the second worst week in the markets history was the week before the garage and I didn't want to be in to have any more exposure and so I look at what's happening now and I say it's not 87 you know this is like the beginning of Anna Karenina you know all happy found all open markets are alike and all sell offs are unlike you know unhappy in their own individual way this is one that's got a lot of manmade I love tall story I took before you're the son I didn't took care of them he's a fabulous writer but here you have you have manmade oil you have man-made wage inflation to some degree because we lowered taxes and you have orders that aren't selling the fill the boat would tell you that can change and you have a tower you know you have a tariff let's call it skirmish like Jamie like Jamie whoa on Friday I love these first how much sure Jamie there's not a lot of first name people in the world so you have all these things and you have a panic and I always say the same thing which is that nobody ever made a dime panicking and if you're thinking about your 401k and you haven't made a contribution gonna do it you're in you know what maybe do a little now maybe do it a little this week when everyone's panicking because maybe pal changes his view or maybe oil comes down and you'll say why did I do that why didn't I think more like Warren Buffett why was I looking and saying oh my it's down like this guy was gonna come on the a seventh god remember we closed down 508 points that day and we're at 506 so I mean it's gonna ring true except for that was it 1400 it's not like that there's been so much optimism here and I mean I guess to quote Mark Twain it was the best of times it was the worst of times what are you seeing in terms of I just wanted to get some literature I think I'll go with the Dickens on door Dickens will give you the difference good you Stephen King he was a Stephen King of his day premature there were reports of the bull of the mortgage I don't see a lot of opt-ins I see a lot of people want to scare the bejesus out of people I'm just saying look I've been saying night after night cautious I mean I went out as like it's like hey listen just go to so long I'm asking you though I want to know what the bright point we're looking at the Dow down right now you know five hundred points where where's the bright spot well you know I the bright spot is that we are not wracked with inflation even if pal says we are and also Ernie's can get better they don't just have to get worse we just need some of the raw costs to come down and by the way let's just understand each other the market has been up a lot okay so it's not like this is the end of the world if you yes if you drop a zero and we are 20th let's say we really are at 2600 on the Dow are we going to go to pork you know we can sell off and maybe things will cool off and by the time we get into earnings season people might say you know what that stock is down so much they told a decent story you every year you know what I'm gonna go buy live I'll use the worst example Ford I think this calls for a horrendous oh I picked the worst I picked the worst why start with the words I'm gonna use micron these are companies or sell you five times earnings before thunder four I don't think what kind of stupid I think for it's gonna have a horrendous quirk but then after that I think that they could do better they'll take the charges maybe only make good deals micron its told you they have an inventory correction there's too many chips in the system so after they go through and have two quarters of inventory adjustment then you gotta say wow they're buying back ten billion dollars were the stock they remember they are cashflow positive these up that all the negatives have to happen before the positives let me let me take you back to what was it 2007 summer sure when was the famous ran to that era she never wore that dress again he never wore that one it was a giraffe dress yeah you were very very crude and you were earlier they made fun of me this man's you know that's not right you were right right it was good to be right you were very critical you were very critical of Bernanke's he's not he's not the guys I was talking to he Disney doesn't know what he's doing are you they know nothing sergeant Jiles but uh but but are you at all close to that point now with this fed and this fed I think this fed it's very easy for him to take it back you know they praised seventeen times before Bernanke wasn't talking to any of the brokerages he wasn't talking to anybody in real estate wasn't talking to any hedge funds now that was just listen we have to raise rates and there were plenty of people came on and said you know it's so ever he did he has to raise rates and let's just put the blinders on raise rates until we hear out what we were going to her to precipice we were sent over precipice you know they went you know what years later when the actual transcript came out I was a laugh line the Fed and that's okay yeah I mean look I spend my time on the cross and it's okay I've been around for a long time but sometimes when you really feel emphatic you do have to shout it from the rooftops I was not yelling I mean I had a Today Show experience where someone said to me are you aren't you yelling fire in a crowded theater and I said yeah but you see there's a fire there is a fire here so I'm not gonna yell I am going to say that we will find if Jay Powell says tomorrow it gives a speech because you know what I what I really meant to say was jeez you know if it really slows down I'm obviously not going to raise forever then what's gonna happen is people gonna say why the heck didn't I buy service now whatever the hell that is most people don't even know we're selling it why not buy the ETF to handle those high flyers in it because those people don't know what a dhobi does but then you'll feel like you should have and you know you'll feel like wow you know why did not buy Disney now that they solved their problems with an ESPN is doing better they look back and I don't want to be the guy that says you know what it's 87 and it is really coming apart and by the way can we remember that in 1987 the economy was actually quite strong it was just the stock market the fell apart here we have a lot of buybacks we have a lot of good things going we have a Fed that is very worried about its shadow and wants to prove its mettle and against that we've got higher oil we've got King dollar and we have a war with China that is really us fighting back and that's good of course the market to decline a little but once it goes down do you think that there won't be some bargains I think would be tragic if people just said you don't want get out now instead look I put money to my father I just added I mean I'm trying to get through geez dude brokers but all right I got some money from my late dad for my kids and I've been waiting for a breakup what's something he told me he said put some worry bunny to work before he passed away and the rest I kind of kept them aside lights a SP I'm not allowed to own any stocks so I today added to the two because I was gonna wait to the end the year I put some money of theirs to work they don't watch the show don't worry what am I think that no I have show yeah that's all right fascinating conversation my wife frankly who's in real estate has said listen if you're in New York real estate get out now and I said there I'm in York real estate I can't get out now pull man for his house by the ways by the houses from my house that's for sale he paid five I say he bit him 1.5 yeah I mean real estate embarrassed to the clitoris is very bad that's tonight in that yeah and I was I'm long York real estate but many got what am I supposed to do what my wife said is we should sell and then rent I said I haven't ran in since 84 good luck trying to find an apartment all right there you go big but you know what a year from now you can be saying good luck trying to get rid of them you
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