저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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결론: 이탈리아 리스크는 제한적이나 연준 우려와 중국·유럽 둔화로 시장 약세 지속 가능성. 이탈리아 채권 시장: 이탈리아 10년물 금리가 3.6%로 약 23~25bp 급등, 독일 대비 스프레드 3%. 그러나 EU 재정 갈등은 이탈리아 정치인에게 유리하게 작용한다고 평가. 유럽 전이 위험: 이탈리아 이탈·단일통화 탈퇴 가능성은 지평선에 없고, 유럽 전역으로의 전염(contagion)도 현재는 낮음. ECB가 여전히 지원 중이라고 봄. 미국 고용: 9월 고용지표는 강하나 헬스케어 중심 고용이라 질적 우려가 있음. 연준 우려: 파월 의장이 데이터 의존 탈피와 금리 로드맵을 언급하며 오버슈팅 가능성이 제기돼 매도세의 주요 원인으로 지목. 유럽·중국: 유럽 성장 둔화 명확, 독일 일부 긍정적 소식 있으나 제한적. 근원 인플레이션 둔화 관측. 브렉시트: 단기적으로 노딜 가능성이 6개월 전보다 높지만 합의가 가장 유력하다고 봄. 미국에 미치는 영향은 불확실. 금융주: 바클레이즈 자료 기준 미 은행의 이탈리아 익스포저는 과거보다 크지 않음. 씨티는 시가총액 대비 익스포저가 커 보이나 과도한 우려일 수 있음. 골드만삭스 등 은행주는 고점 근처, 지난주 금융 섹터 1.9% 상승. 출연자 전망: 중장기(6~12개월) 유럽·중국·브렉시트 이슈를 주시해야 하나, 이탈리아발 대형 위기는 가능성이 낮다는 입장.
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I am totally aware as someone who actually has property and tries to do business in Italy Italy is a very strange country in terms of doing business and strange country in terms of but of their budget well wolf it's the third largest bond market in the world the lattice point mark in the world and in Greece is the highest debt to GDP in Europe a 130 percent of debts GDP the interesting thing about was going on Italy at the moment I don't think we're talking about two crucial things that we did a couple of years ago which would be more risky to the US stock market one we're not talking about a country that wants to leave the single currency right that that is not on the horizon we're also not looking at big contagion so yes the ten-year on it on the Italian bond went up to 3.6 percent it's jumped 25 base 23 basis points this morning and the spread over German debt is now 3% but we're not seeing contagion across the rest of Europe because of the central bank it's just because the central bank is still supporting things which it raises another question can they raise rates like people think right with that but we're not talking about two of those doomsday scenarios all of that said I think this is played out for mister salvinia mr.
DeMaio the populist leaders in Italy better than they could have hoped because what they have got from the European Commission over the weekend is a firm rebuke for doing something that didn't even really involve breaking the rules they announced that their budget deficit is going to be 2.4 percent of GDP that was higher than expected was expected at 1.5 but it was still below the 3 percent rule that they had and yet they've got this rebuke from the European Commission and it plays into their hands to talk up their populist issues more and it hurts that sort of centrist Brussels rhetoric across not just Italy but across all of Europe and I think next May the European elections are going to be very interesting to watch now I don't want to over accentuate the role of either Europe or China here this morning obviously we have a closed bomb market so I write I tend to look at international more importantly today let me except when we sit back and we look at that employment number one Friday there are many people who read it it is entirely strong they did not break down the units of where the jobs are being quite there's not health care health care had been inflationary it was private the literally white collar I think people are fearing the Fed and that a lot of this sell-off has to do with Jerome Powell simply saying listen it is all right we're dropping data dependence it what we're going for is here here's your roadmap and we could overshoot so now let's put it all together Europe is clearly slowing mm-hmm I was some good news out of Germany but I don't see much much and I so then a kind of fashion was recently slipped a bit and core inflation figure but are we under estimating brexit in this country there's so much many moving parts on brexit I mean I think in the short term we are more likely to have an Odile today than we were six months ago but I still think a deal is the most likely outcome okay just because you would expect the sides to come together in the interests of sensibility but but that's uncertain I mean it question is does that really hurt the US or not and just to finish the point as we mentioned Italy clearly because you have tremendous background in Europe and I'm playing it to my advantage because I lack the knowledge that you have so I like to be able to put the context why our markets down and I'm working stamping some Europe it's down because of Europe it's down because of China today and we need to highlight the Giants playing catch-up that Italy probably doesn't have contagion albeit these are real big issues to watch over the next six to 12 months Bolivia just on the point of contagion with Italy just quickly we've got the from Barclays note the exposure of the US banks to Italy debt and there was enough then not groundbreaking them now so even though we see days when the Italian banks are down sharply which makes sense quite clearly cities the one with the biggest exposure Goldman Sachs for its market cap is quite high relative to those US banks this is as year end at 2017 we don't have more up-to-date figures but again days we see the US banks selling off because UniCredit selling off you can look at that and think okay that's a little bit overdone I am a little surprised at cities that high I would say the City and JP Morgan report on Friday JP Morgan talking about good loan growth city really not emphasizing well worth I want to hear what they have to say about trade you know when you try to do business in Mexico with Citi they're not allowed to water the knife through NAFTA agreement is a consolidation I mean well Mike corbat talk about the big cost that could be taken out that's important he's still buying back right at this level he might be buying back his punches 10% of this number of shares but that is Friday's business that's what's critical we do not have any big earnings until Friday but those earnings in gigantic but and the bank stocks are really flirting with highs you're there there at the cusp we don't know it's cuspid we don't know the best performing sector last week the financials broadly at 1.9% but the rates were soaring so they could have performed better and they've been low will of course see the bank's rule let's see if there's any you
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