저자: JamieDimon · 외국인
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제이미 다이먼은 미중 무역 갈등을 일시적 마찰로 보며 결국 해결될 것이라 보지만 해결까지 시간이 걸릴 것으로 본다. 무역 갈등이 본격화되는 조건은 미국 경제지표가 약해졌을 때 상대가 양보하기보다 입장을 굳히는 상황이라고 설명한다. 신흥국은 터키·아르헨티나를 제외하면 대체로 양호하며 달러 강세는 세계 성장에 긍정적이라고 본다. 위기국은 정치적 요인이 얽혀 있고 신흥국 내 기회도 존재하지만 리스크 대비 수익을 따져야 한다고 말한다. 미국 경제에 낙관적이지만 현금의 상대적 매력(3개월 LIBOR)이 부각된다고 하며, 고정수익(크레딧·채권) 쪽 기회를 강조한다. 주식 비중을 낮추라는 직접적 언급은 없다. 장단기 금리차(수익률곡선) 평탄화 자체는 반드시 나쁜 신호가 아니며, 연준이 금리 인상을 계속해 곡선이 더 좁혀지고 시장이 이에 부정적으로 반응할 때 연준이 정책을 재고할 수 있다고 본다. 연준이 실제로 보는 것은 주가가 포함된 금융여건이라는 취지다.
다듬은 글
can I quote a smart guy to you through good morning okay this this guy wrote this he said recent robust US growth and relatively stable US financial markets provide space for US policymakers to quote take some pain as they pressure China for concessions that smart guy is you you recently wrote this Jamie Dimon you may have heard says we're gonna be okay obviously I think you would agree with the JPMorgan CEO sure you know I think when you look at it I mean skirmish is fine I'd call it a spat yeah you know I mean kids pushing each other in the playground but at the end we have to get along so yes bat you know it's it's gonna get resolved it's just a matter of how long it takes you know our view is that this could go on for quite some time but that the net results probably not gonna get you know too bad yeah so the great Leslie picker and I were discussing earlier what would move this from what would cause Jamie Dimon to change it from okay it's not a trade war to it is is it merely the longitude of this is it the severity of it is it upping it from 10 to 25 percent on the tariffs what would change that to sort of Ratchet it up to the next level you know I I think I think the main thing would be that if there was a mistake made so someone that pushed a little too hard we started to get some weaker economic economic numbers in the US and instead of that causing a response that made everyone a little more agreeable it actually caused people to harden their positions and dig in so it really is the response to any sort of signs that it's beginning to have an effect okay I want to play this as well all Jamie Dimon was in a very bullish mood by the way gave these comments to CNBC international in India over and I drew listen to Jamie Dimon comments about emerging markets and I want you to respond to that as well I'm not really concerned you know you have pretty to put a put Turkey and Argentina aside where I think you have very serious issues the rest of the emerging markets actually doing quite well and you know the doubt America's gotten stronger the dollars gotten stronger but that's actually good for the world the world is actually growing quite healthily and so the emerging markets they're going just more like a teething pain and you actually right they're not all the same I don't even think they should be called emerging markets anymore at the truth so you know kind of like the trade issue saying yeah there's a couple pockets here to worry about but overall we are going to be okay I think that's right hasn't spread when you look at the countries that are actually experiencing the most stress they have something else going on with them it's not purely just an economic story in the most cases there's a political but dynamic to it all as well you know there are areas of opportunity in emerging markets you know it's just a question of how much risk you want to take for the return you know right now I think you know although we're very optimistic on the economy you know if you think we're it's are going to be moving higher as we do you want to be able you want to be exposed to the kind of variable rates and you want to be exposed to things I really do you mean by that you know so one of the more interesting things that we've noticed is that you know cash is looking increasingly attractive so although we're kind of hash although we like risk we like smart risk and if you look at where cash is versus a lot of other things you know three-month LIBOR is actually a pretty pretty attractive relative base okay you know I got to apologize to viewers I failed in my job completely Islamic divorced TV host in America because that that should have been our lead well if somebody comes on this show and recommends cash I'm thinking you know put the money in the milk crate in the basement Jasper because here come the aliens now it's why is cash looking so good it's because of their relative yield and and the exposure to rising rates that there is no yield well I guess relative to does that mean you think everything's gonna go down no you know what's what you say so I tend to focus more on fixed income so there are a lot of good opportunities in equity space there's a lot of good opportunity still in credit but if you look at it caches and looking all that bad anymore either simply because of what's been going on the front end the Yoker front of the ochres been moving up sharply so when we all talk about the flattening of the yo curve and people begin to worry about that what they should be focused on is what they get at the front end of the yo curve now that rates have been moving higher does that yield and again the yield curve by the way it's early to in ten years that the the difference between the two we want to keep it sort of jargon free at five whatever clock it is this morning does that signify to you a slowdown because I've heard people say yeah it means a slowdown err no there's certain technical things going on China's selling got some other moves in the bond market that flattening of the yield curve doesn't necessarily big word alert portend bad things it's not really a big seven letter see if he seven letters a big word i guess that's the question nice quick addition by the way and you're part of like the you know is it can our view of my life is that the fed and market participants are gonna look at it ever flattening you'll curve a tightening you'll cure if the twos tends spread getting narrower and narrower and at some point the markets gonna say we don't like where this is heading this pretends a recession right so I added an S to it so I get eight letters now so if we were doing Scrabble I'd be IV in the lead when that happens when the marker begins to react negatively to this idea that the feds gonna keep raising rates even though them even though the yield curve is getting flatter that's that's actually when the Fed will actually say hey wait a second we can't just keep hiking without regard to what the markets are doing so the Fed never likes to say they're looking at equity markets they're looking at financial conditions which you might as well read as the S&P 500 you
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