저자: MichaelMauro · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 비트코인은 7,000달러 지지 여부에 따라 1만 달러 상승 가능성이 열려 있다고 본다. [시장 상황] 최근 1주일 약 10% 반등했으나, 올해 6,000달러 부근에서 여러 차례 지지받은 기술적 반등 성격이 크다고 봄. 현물 거래량은 평탄한 반면 CME 비트코인 선물 거래량은 두 달 새 약 2배로 증가, 기관 참여 확대 신호로 해석. [반등 배경] SEC가 비트코인 ETF 9건을 거절한 뒤 공매도 잔고가 늘었으나, 급락이 나오지 않고 기술적 지지선(5,800~6,000달러)이 버텨 숏 커버링 성격의 반등이 나왔다고 분석. [매도 압력] 고점에서 매도세가 나오고 있으며, 6,000달러 부근에서 매수했던 투자자들이 반등 때 매도하는 패턴이 반복. [상승 조건] 급격한 상승보다 5~10% 단위의 완만하고 꾸준한 상승과 거래량 증가가 필요. 시장은 SEC ETF 승인이 당분간 어렵다는 점을 이미 받아들였고, 이 때문에 심리가 덜 과열되어 향후 12개월에는 더 건강한 흐름이 될 것이라고 봄. [가격 전망] 7,000달러를 약 1주일(최대 2주) 지지하면 매수 세력이 복귀하고 1만 달러 가능성이 커진다고 봄. 5,000달러보다는 1만 달러 쪽 가능성이 높다는 견해. 핵심 레벨: 7,000달러 방어가 중요, 7,000~7,157달러 구간 돌파 여부를 주목. [호스트 코멘트] 진행자(Melissa 등)는 고점 저점 낮아지는 흐름을 지적하며 2018년 신고가 경신 실패를 언급. 7월 고점(약 8,500달러) 돌파 시 2018년 첫 종가 고점 돌파가 되어 심리 반전 가능성을 언급. [출연자 리스크] 바닥을 확인하기 전까지 바닥이 아니라는 시각, 공매도 세력의 재진입 가능성 등 하방 리스크도 언급됨.
다듬은 글
bitcoin is rally nearly ten percent in the last week though it was down slightly today what's behind this rally the CBOE Bitcoin futures have had a modest decline in Bitcoin short positions though the more widely traded seeing me Bitcoin futures have not Bitcoin has successfully held near 6,000 several times this year and much of this is likely a technical bounce we're seeing now here's a bit of good news for Bitcoin enthusiasm or volume even as Bitcoin prices have plunged in the last couple of months while trading volumes on spot markets like coinbase for agree cently for example have been relatively flat for a few months about 11,000 bitcoins a day is typical daily futures volumes on the CM e have doubled from 15,000 Bitcoin equivalent to about 30,000 that's doubling Bitcoin equivalents in the last two months a rival contract at the SIBO CBOE has been relatively flat at about 5,000 Bitcoin equivalents a day so why is this CNA suddenly getting more volume it's likely more institutions are plugged into the CM e now and allowing some form of Bitcoin futures trading some may also prefer the settlement method the CME uses so what's important here is that the increase in futures volume on the CME has occurred while Bitcoin went from 6,000 in June to over 8,000 in July and then all the way back down to about 6,000 it means that at least some traders are perfectly willing to trade Bitcoin futures on the way up and also on the way down seems like a more active market out there back to you Melissa all right bob thanks Bob Pisani at the NYC so what exactly is behind this rally can the cryptocurrency finally break out Michael Mauro is the CEO of Genesis global trading and of Genesis Capital one of the largest crypto traders on the street he's got the answers for us hopefully Michael welcome to the show thanks for having me why do you think Bitcoin has gone above 7,000 currently holding it I think the biggest thing in the news that sort of happened last week was that as you recall about a week ago and the SEC reject nine different Bitcoin ETFs and I think days leading up to the rejection you saw a rising in the short interest in Bitcoin across the exchanges and we also saw that increase in lending activity through Genesis capital where folks are taking out loans for the purpose of shorting once the news broke about the SEC rejection in the is actually held we didn't see the five ten fifteen percent sell-off that you've seen in previous projections and that the technicals that at right around the 5859 hundred levels held so I think the Bears have realized that they've run out of steam well we also saw on the spot trading side is right around the 6k level very few sellers all right we're gonna hold seven thousand what brings us to because your call is the next stop would be ten thousand what brings us to that to that level what's that catalyst I think the number one thing that's gonna have to happen is slow and steady growth and as Bob mentioned earlier in just a segment before is volume what you need to see is the less violent moves of five percent up 10 percent up and a slow and steady growth across the exchanges what I also think is important is that I believe the market now understands that the SE C's ETF approval isn't anytime soon so I think that the market sentiment regarding the product and the approval process is now far more muted which i think is a healthier outlook for the next 12 months okay so Michael let me ask you this give you look at the chart of bitcoins since the highs in December we've seen a series of lower highs over that you know and and so yes we've held 6,000 numerous times this year do you think they're just sellers that live above because when they get back to those prior highs the whole thing just doesn't exist anymore in 2018 and therefore that's one of the reasons why we have not been able to make a series our new high in 2018 from the prior what I think is interesting is every single time we get a pop in Bitcoin price the first thing that happens our sellers so it's folks who managed to sort of scoop up the dip and are selling at the next pop and so folks that managed to buy at 6,000 6100 in the last two weeks were sellers in the last 24 hours the question is are the Bulls here to stay we haven't really seen the strong buy-side demand yet coming in even though there have been sell side interest in the last 24 hours so I think the question ultimately is is the Marquee going to head back down to the 6k level simply because the bowls are so waiting to see is the 7 K really going to hold and then see where we go from here what's your feeling in turn what are you seeing in terms of orders I mean are you sensing you mentioned that in the past 24 hours short interest has Klein I mean if if this rally up through 1000 was filled by short-covering yes some might say well you know the shorts are gonna come back and reload I think that's ultimately the question whether the real short game is down from 7 down to 6 sure this 15% kind of baked in there but is that really kind of enough ultimately to kind of get this done and then the question is where are the Bulls are they now on the sidelines or what if the 7 K level holds save for the next week let's 2 weeks the Bulls 100% be back where they were more comfortable that the lows for the year in and that we are likely more likely to see 10k rather than 5 so that's a level in your view that Bitcoin has to defend it's got to defend 7,000 for about the next week in order for you to be convinced that the bull case is there that the Bulls will step back it I think the key level is 71-57 team or attack but yes if that's we can hold that in next week I do believe that we will see a sentiment turn around the marketplace alright Michael thank you great to have you with us Michael Mauro of Genesis well pretty interesting look no matter what you want to say about efficacy proof of concept existential six thousands been a key level and it's largely held I mean give or take and and and I think Dan's also been though right by saying look until you really find a bottom you don't have a bottom and we don't know that I I do think what's interesting is Mike said no one was expecting the SEC to come through didn't sound like he's expecting them to come through anytime and yet that is the catalyst that everybody needs yes so the most important takeaway I have is that we need to get back towards that prior high from July which about 8500 and once they do that then that's the first time in 2018 we have made a close above a prior high okay and that to me would maybe cause some symbols to get back in rather than shorts to cover you
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