저자: TomLee · 외국인
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결론: 비트코인은 신흥국 증시(MSCI EM/S&P 상대강도)와 연동되어 있으며, 연말까지 2만 달러 상회도 가능하다는 입장. 신흥국 지수와 비트코인의 연동 근거: 헤지펀드의 리스크온/오프 거래와 신흥국 자산 하락에 따른 부의 효과(wealth effect)가 비트코인 수요를 줄인다고 설명. 기관 수요 및 시장 구조: 헤지펀드·글로벌 매크로 펀드의 참여가 늘고 있으며, 선물(CME) 상장과 비트마이크스 등 거래소 확대가 증분 수요를 만든다고 봄. 다만 보관(custody)과 밸류에이션 모델 부족이 기관 편입의 장애물. BTC 전망: 2018년 11월 중순 6천 달러에서 연말 1만9~2만 달러로 급등한 변동성을 근거로, 연말 2만 달러 도달도 어렵지 않다고 언급. 심리 지표: 비트코인 Misery Index가 36으로 매우 비관적이며, 21 부근 바닥 이후 악화된 상태. 역발상 투자가 어려운 시장이라고 진단. 리스크: SEC의 ETF 신청 대다수 기각, 중국 규제 강화 등 악재가 있으나 이후 반등이 나왔다고 설명.
다듬은 글
you're wondering where bitcoins headed next fun strats Tom Lee has one key chart he says can answer that age-old question for you Tom's over at the plasma to break it all down Tom what are you looking at well in general we think mining and fundamental factors like network effect really Drive bitcoins value but macro factors have an effect on network value so the chart we have here shows you two lines the orange line is the MSCI Emerging Markets Index relative to the SP and the other one is bitcoins price as you can see as am actually rallied into the end of the year we had a huge Bitcoin rally and as iam has since fallen we've seen Bitcoin fall sharply and you might wonder what's the linkage why do we think they're connected well there's two factors the first is a hedge funds see hedge funds typically rent emerging market stocks so they do risk-on risk-off so when they're risk-off bitcoin also suffers because their risk off the second reason has to do with wealth effect wealth effect means if you're living in an emerging market and you see your stock market fall hugely well that means you have a lot less money to buy bitcoins so that affects the network effect because you can't buy bitcoins so I think there's two reasons why emerging markets index is actually influenced Bitcoin all right I think Tom's gonna come over right Michele we'll bring the chair in one overtime walk on over we can't wheel you over there's a string attached do take a seat make yourself comfortable come on this implies that the that the greatest percentage of Bitcoin trading and Bitcoin buying or crypto buying crypto trading comes from hedge funds as institutions and then also emerging markets yeah it's so the numbers bear that out well and you're right there so there's an implication I do think in 2018 trading has shifted I think there's actually a lot more trading in the US now and I think on the margin exchanges like bit mix have attracted macro hedge funds so I do think hedge funds are playing a role right now until we get other on-ramps they're really incremental demand for crypto so Tom speaking of the incremental demand lot of the macro funds are in the futures market CME SIBO futures from your clients you're talking to are you seeing global macro managers adding this on as kind of a part of their their process because I still struggle trying to find a lot of those people yeah I mean they're really interested because I it has to do with all their new analyst hires you know they're hiring all these guys out of college and all of a sudden these guys are very into cryptocurrencies but hedge funds aren't plumbed to be adding Bitcoin into their portfolio mix I think it's double complicated because there's still this complication of like how you store the bitcoins because today they don't really want to take custody I don't think they're there investors want them to take custody and the second is understanding valuation models because there isn't a lot of research out there except for a few people who do research on it so I think there's a lot of education taking place I think backed as as you mentioned many times is a huge deal because it really simplifies the process it's one day settled and then I think it pretty soon we'll see you know the potential for custody products around that to develop so matter of time we have BK speak at our conference up in Boston a crypto conference time he did a great job but so we've done some of that research on it we do kind of the same thing outside of the crypto world when you get feedback from clients it's a very sentiment based trading vehicle right now what kind of feedback are you getting on it our people negative because it's down are they thinking about it as an opportunity reflexivity is much bigger in crypto so like in traditional markets you want to be contrarian like 80 percent of the time or you know 60 percent I think a crypto when people are bearish it's tough to actually be contrarian you know and so I think what we're seeing though is where we are seeing a crescendo of negativity so it's the misery index by the way yeah so we can read in Bitcoin misery index for instance is actually 36 so it's actually pretty miserable it's very nice has it inflected because it bottomed it around 21 so it hasn't gone back and we've had some bad news this week two big setbacks right the sec almost you know universally canceled nine applications and then china did essentially a read because it sounded like they had to clamp down to get them on crypto and bitcoins actually rallied last quickly 20,000 by the end of the year more than that where are you on time yes I think and I'm running out of time I'm actually applying to try to change the calendar year takes 10 days for 10 days are that all the returning Bitcoin you're sticking to that bullets all right Tom thanks Tom Lee a fun strat it wouldn't be that hard to get there I mean remember in the middle of November Bitcoin was at six thousand and I went to 20,000 or 19,000 or so by the end of the year so it is extremely volatile into instrument it wouldn't be hard for it to get there you
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