저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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Amazon 실적 부진 결론: 아마존은 수요를 잘못 예측해 창고·인력을 과잉 확충했고, 이 과잉 채용이 향후 실업률 상승으로 이어질 수 있다. 실적·수요 판단: 아마존 실적은 좋지 않았으며 대규모 지출을 했으나 수요 예측이 빗나갔다. 오미크론 확산을 잘못 판단했다는 것이 핵심 원인이다. 인력·실업률 전망: 아마존이 채용을 계속 늘려 과잉 인력이 생겼고, 향후 2개 분기 내 실업률이 상승할 것으로 본다. 창고 축소 가능성도 언급했다. 소비 둔화 신호: 소비가 다소 둔화된 것으로 보이며, 연준 입장에서는 이 보고서가 가장 중요하다고 평가했다. 아마존 개별 전망: 여전히 아마존을 좋아하지만 과잉 투자를 했다고 본다. 아마존 주식은 다수 매도했고 당장 되사려는 서두름은 없다고 밝혔다. 비용 관리: 회사 측이 비용 절감에 초점을 맞췄다고 언급했으며, 정상화에 시간이 걸릴 것이라는 취지다. 웹서비스·기타 기업: 아마존 웹서비스(AWS)는 훌륭하다고 평가했다. 스냅의 광고 둔화(33→25)는 우크라이나 사태 이후 광고 환경과 연관된 것으로 언급했다. 중국·애플: 중국 봉쇄 상황이 우려스럽다고 했으며, 중국 내 아이폰 판매 등 애플 관련 우려도 언급했다. 시장 관련 발언: 바이두·JD 등 중국 기술주 급등은 자사주 매입 등 인위적 요인이 있다는 취지로 언급했고, 시장이 조작되었다는 인식에 대해 논의했다. 결론적으로 실업률 상승 가능성과 아마존 과잉투자 리스크가 핵심 메시지다.
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well i think that amazon overbuilt uh i think amazon built for a a consumer that was aggressive and then a worker that got omicron uh they have a lot of uh warehouses they're gonna have to cut back number warehouses uh obviously if i were the fed this is the single most important report that i've heard because it turns out that the consumer may have slowed a bit but amazon has just stopped up the workforce uh and that's going to change i think you're going to see an increase in unemployment in the next two quarters because of the slowdown of amazon i still like amazon but they over built now i'm not saying the cfo's upset uh these two reports amazon was not great because amazon spent a huge amount of money uh because they didn't know what the demand was going to be i think they misjudged but more importantly they misjudged omicron and a lot of misjudged omicron uh apple misjudged omicron i mean this thing is we almost think like we're out of it and yet our friends come down with it every day there's always some new person well just imagine if you're at a warehouse anywhere else in the in the country you got to shut down or add new people and so amazon just kept hiring and hiring and hiring and i don't know what they're going to do with those people but those people a lot of those people may be available to the workforce uh well they did say i mean obviously the tone of the call was a lot about uh focusing on expenses and as as they put it jim this will take some time to get this thing on some of these things unwound right i mean we sold a lot of amazon for uh my chapel trust i'm in no hurry to buy it back no hurry i think that it could be in purgatory it's just they look i'm not saying jesse doesn't know what he's doing i am saying that it's almost impossible to know how to handle whether you need five hundred thousand or a million people because every time someone gets omicron you gotta get like four other people sure well carl everyone is has met someone who has omicron and you know that person's not going to work but at amazon you can't have a guy not come to work a gal not come to work there's just too much work so they ended up ordering too many people basically i don't sound like they're ordering people as being some sort of yeah you saw jesse just there uh referencing ukraine uh and after looking at what snap said about uh post ukraine advertising is that why we saw this deceleration in ads yeah 25 prior 33.
so i know that was that was not good no i'm saying amazon was not a great quarter it was not a great quarter uh just plain and simple and they made mistakes uh there's a slow there is a bit of a slowing although not web service is terrific apple's totally different apple would have had the conversation had they had a continual quarter you would have said you know what this company is the ultimate technology company with a with an incredibly great revenue stream but when the largest market other than the u.s shut you can't order here you could order a 13 from home and amazon would bring it to you even if there was covet the shutdown there in china is frightening and i just think that one day we're going to wake up and say that they're switching to bioentech and we're ending this and everyone's going to be vaccinated the next 48 hours that's that would be a massive pivot well they're gonna have well i think president for life she will not be president for life if he doesn't pivot well i'll tell you if you look at k webb this morning and some of these gains in baidu and jd uh because of this that is this is a pivot table that's just them buying the stock it's polar buying stocks i mean that shameless market i mean people are doing that don't they understand that market's rigged it's a rigged market well i mean look maybe maybe you think it's rigged in your favor but if they don't play that day then it goes away uh but i just mean on the heels of their infrastructure call this week now this well look the thing that they have to do is send everybody back to work after a good vaccine and then when someone gets sick they have them stay home shephe
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