저자: AbhishekKar—영상내용은HowardMarks메모해설 · 외국인
요약 보기
Howard Marks의 최근 메모를 소개하며, 1980~2020년 40년간 금리 하락이 역사상 가장 중요한 금융 사건이었고 투자자 대부분이 금리 상승 국면을 경험하지 못했다고 경고한다. 핵심 주장 1: 1980~2020년 사이 약 2000bp 금리 하락이 기업 수익성과 투자 수익의 최고치를 만들었다는 점에서 가장 중요한 사건이다. 핵심 주장 2: 현재 투자자들은 금리가 장기간 하락하거나 안정된 환경만 경험해 경험이 부족하며, 65세 이상이나 1980년 이전 시장을 본 사람만 금리 상승기의 기업 이익 어려움을 안다. 핵심 주장 3: 금리가 상승하면 경제성장 둔화, 기업 이익률 침식, 자산가격 상승 둔화, 쉽게 자금 조달하던 기업의 자금난이 올 수 있다. 미국 상황 우려: 최근 3년간 Fed가 인플레이션과 금리를 통제하지 못하고 있어 미국에 더 큰 위험이 될 수 있으며, 인도에는 파급효과가 있으나 큰 문제는 아니라고 봄. 저가 매수 기회: 패닉이 와야 진정한 저가 매수 기회가 생기는데, Fed가 개입해 패닉이 짧게 끝나므로 기회가 줄었다는 주장. 대안: 금리가 오를 수 있는 채권형 등 안전 자산에 일부 노출을 두는 것을 제시. 영상 후반부에는 증권사 가입 유도(홍보) 내용이 포함됨.
다듬은 글
Something is going to happen in the world of stock market which has not happened till date and this is not being said by me but by Howard Marks who is an American investor who has earned Rs. 000 crores in his life. In today's video we will understand what Howard Marks has to say about which direction our economy is going and what will be the overall impact.
We are going to get very interesting insights, so stay tuned till the end. Howard Marks who is an American investor has had a career of 63 years. Yes, he has been investing for 63 years. In his career, he has made very simple forecasts and predictions. The very interesting thing is that out of so many predictions he made, most of them have turned out to be correct.
Let me tell you that he now publishes his memos from time to time in which this time he has put three very important highlights. If I talk about the first highlight, then he directly asks the public what do you people think, if we talk about the history so far. Let's ask which was the most important financial event.
Naturally, some of you will answer that it was the 2008 Lehman Brothers crisis. We have made a video of the entire case study on this on our channel. Please check it out. Then some of you will say that the Coca-Cola bubble that happened in 2000-2001, due to which there was chaos all over the world, that could be it.
Well, that is not it either. Some people will say that the Covid-19 crisis that came in 2020, when the Fed came to the rescue and printed a lot of notes, could possibly be the biggest trigger event. But according to Howard Marks, none of these events was as important in financial history. Which event is as important as this one?
The 2000 basis point decline in interest rates that happened between 1980 and 2020. Understand this briefly. Why are you saying that? This period of 2000 basis point decline is important because if you notice, the highest profitability of companies and the highest record profits of investors have been made between 1980 and 2020 because when interest rates went down to record levels, people understood that there can be no better place than deploying our capital and that is why Howard Marks is trying to alert everyone that this area, which was 40 years between 1980 and 2020, was the most important.
The second point that Howard Marks says is that because of this, all the investors today, whether it is me, you or anyone, whatever perceptions they are making, they are making with lack of experience. Elaborating this, he says that friend, you people have only seen the decline or lower level of interest rates for 40 years.
Since 1980, interest rates have declined here, either remaining fairly stable or trending downwards. Only those people who are above 65 years of age or have seen the market before 1980 know how difficult it becomes for companies to make profits when interest rates go up. Many people always think that this time this is going to be different.
But they believe that in every bull market in the 80s, things are the same. Everyone says the reason for the uptrend is that this could be different. This time it is different. This time there is innovation. This time demographic dividends have increased. But all the bubbles or all the big rallies due to ventures end somewhere.
By the way, what do you have to say on this? First of all, please give a lovely like to the video so that we can keep bringing such information videos. And in the comments, what do you think, based on their predictions, where do you see Nifty in the next 5 years? I will definitely tell you in the comments.
One more thing they say is that Finally, they don't want to scare you, they want to give you a solution as well. But they are talking about another problem with this. They are saying that if you look at the last 40 years, the rise in interest rates has been very gradual and has been controlled to a great extent.
But if we are seeing now, for the last three years, even the Fed is unable to control it, neither is it able to control inflation nor is it able to control many things, then what will be the consequences of this? Its consequences say that as the rates keep rising, firstly, economic growth will slow down.
Secondly, the profit margins of companies will start eroding. Thirdly, the appreciation of asset prices that many companies have will slow down and will not be reliable. Along with this, businesses which get financing easily today may not get it. If you ask me, I think this is not a big problem, it is not that big a problem in India.
Obviously, there will be some ripple effect. But this could definitely become an alarming situation for the US. We've already made a few videos on this, like the US debt ceiling. This could spice things up with everything else. Finally, you have to understand one thing that Howard Marks talks about in a roundabout way: " Bargain hunting will become a little difficult." And you guys will also notice this, perhaps you can't in the media noise.
In the last six to seven years, how many stocks have multiplied 500 times, how many stocks have multiplied 100 times. In fact, if you take old stocks, you'll hardly find them. Even today, we're talking about VIPs. Even today, we're talking about R&Rs. They've multiplied 10 times, 5 times, 20 times, 40 times.
We're not talking about small caps, micro caps. They're very speculative in nature; their operational nature is different. Operators do all these things, which we also explain in the Scam series playlist on our channel. But you have to understand. Bargain hunting has become difficult because Howard Marks believes that bargain hunting happens only during times of panic, and according to him, we haven't seen a real panic.
He says that whenever a panic is about to happen, like there was a time when the 1929 crisis happened, there was a panic for many years, then there was a lot of panic later. Now what happens is that as soon as a little panic happens, the Fed comes in and saves everyone by printing bundles of notes, so he says that the real bargain will be available only when what happens these days is that there is a dip, then suddenly the market goes up.
And for this, he gives a solution that people should invest some of their exposure in bonds or safe instruments, bond type instruments, whose interest rates can increase. Because, according to Howard Marks, these can also go upside of 10, so money can be made there in a safe way. I can definitely tell you guys what is your opinion on this in the comments.
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