저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
요약 보기
연준이 25bp 인하한 것은 시장 기대와 부합. 금리는 대체로 하향 기울었으나 경제는 버티는 중이며 노동시장 약세에 따른 리스크 관리 인하로 해석. 스티븐 마이런 이사만 50bp 인하 반대표 행사, 월러는 동의. 시장 측면에서는 관세 악재가 트럼프 감세·규제완화·달러 약세(해외 매출 40%)에 상쇄되어 S&P500 등 사상 최고치 경신, 연초 대선 이후 약 10% 상승. 8~9월 계절적 약세에도 불구하고 연말까지 상승 흐름 전망.
다듬은 글
The Fed did cut rates by 25 basis points as widely expected and suggesting two more cuts would come by the end of the year. That was kind of the the median consensus call among the committee. Joining us now, Jeremy Seagull, . Uh Jeremy, it's good to have you this morning. I I guess we can uh you know, if you if you want to just follow the market's verdict, you often don't get a clean read on the market's reaction to a Fed decision until the next day.
Um I guess 25 basis points was the right call. Uh yeah, I mean they they are happy. Uh let me tell you what really interests me here. Uh that Chris Waller uh did not descent in favor of 50 basis points. Um remember he is the front runner or very close to the front runner to be called chairman and um uh not being more aggressive here.
I I'm I'm just wondering how Trump now would uh look at at Waller. I maybe I missed it. Did you hear any uh tweet from Trump about uh the the Fed's uh announcement? Um uh I know he's in England, but I I I did not see anything. So, no, you know, I was going to say there was no there was the one descent which we believe Steven Myron wanted 125 basis points by the end of well 50 basis points this meeting and then a good deal more the rest of this year.
But there was some thinking ahead of the meeting that, you know, one of the outcomes could be that, you know, Waller and and and Michelle Michelle Bowman, whoever might have wanted a more aggressive move could kind of get the statement to frame things in such a way where it's just look, this is sort of a process most likely and um and not necessarily have to have the descent.
So, I don't know if that means much to the markets in an immediate basis. it basically rates are tilted lower at a time when the economy still seems to be hanging in there. We're anchoring to the soft labor market data which is giving you, you know, an impetus to actually try and take out some of that risk uh management insurance that Powell talked about and yet not really respond to any kind of economic emergency.
Roger Ferguson said one of the non voters something with the dot plots which indicated didn't even want to cut or she did not even want, you know, someone wanted 50, someone wanted nothing. So yeah, none of us we don't absolutely know it was a non- voter. We could you could presume it. Uh maybe it was just a show of unity saying hey we're with the chairman and you know Steve Myron is the only one you know this recent appointee who was the only one that dissented.
It could be a show of of support uh for Powell on all the potential dissenters. It's sort of interesting. Had, you know, Myron not been there, the interference had not been there, maybe there would have been uh some descents. I thought there were going to be some two-sided descents, more on 50 and maybe one or two on on none.
Don't forget I I think that there's what six or seven that you know don't don't think there should be any more cuts after this year. one then of course said that uh I think we shouldn't have cut at this particular juncture but they all united and and then only President uh Trump's recent nominee was the only uh descent here.
So, it could be a, you know, it could be kind of a this is this is the way we work things and uh I'm I'm interested to see how Trump will respond and whether Waller moves uh uh down and you know whether we're we're going to get um uh uh you know uh several of the others that have been talk about the markets, Jerry.
Talk about the markets, Jerry. I told Mike that this is in the history of the world, this is today the best time to have ever been in the stock market. I'm just I'm just saying cuz we're going to hit we're going to hit new highs and and Mike point out last how many did we hit last year? We hit 50 or something.
But none of those new highs were as high as today's new high Jerry. So this is good market. Listen what whatever negatives you know is coming from the tariffs and they don't appear to be as negative certainly as we feared at the beginning are being offset by the positives of the Trump policy particularly that tax bill.
I mean which was really so favorable to uh you know corporate earnings uh the degree re deregulation promises which are you know also very very favorable by the way the lower dollar is also very very favorable to to US stocks uh uh since 40% of the profits come from abroad. So you know you know all the negatives from the tariffs are more than offset by the positives that are going on in the market.
And so we are up 10% I think from uh when uh you know Trump won the election and uh at new all-time highs and listen uh at a seasonally weak time which is the last half of August and all of September to continue to hit all-time highs is very very positive I think uh for for year end. Yeah. Uh that would be uh that would be the you know the playbook.
Yeah. That maybe you get a stutter step and then year end should probably follow through to the upside. Professor Seagull, thank you very much. Uh, we're going to have to run uh 7% of all days since 1952, the stock market alltime high. One out of 14 days.
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