저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 피터 시프는 2017년 10월 기준 금과 금광주는 강세, 미국 증시(다우)는 하반기 약세, 달러는 장기적으로 신고점 하락 위험이 크다고 본다. 거시 환경: 트럼프 취임 100일 만의 시리아 공습은 전쟁·정치적 이유 때문일 수 있으며, 트럼프는 친 비개입 기대와 달리 전통 공화·민주당 패턴을 따르고 있다고 평가했다. 3차대전 가능성은 특정하지 않았다. 미국 경제·부채: 오바마케어 폐지와 세제 개혁이 무산되어 성장 기대가 꺾였다고 본다. 부채한도 상향은 쉽게 통과될 것이나 진짜 위기는 부채 자체이며, 결국 통화위기로 이어질 것이라고 주장했다. 애틀랜타 연은 1분기 GDP 추정치는 0.6%로 2월 3.4%에서 급락했다. 증시 전망: 다우지수는 올해 4% 상승에 그쳐 연말 마이너스 마감을 예상했다. 주식 랠리는 재정 부양 부재로 힘을 잃을 것이며, 이는 금에 유리하다고 봤다. 미국 금융·기술주 등 개별 섹터 언급은 없었다. 금·금광주: 금은 2017년 들어 약 10% 상승했으나 GDX(금광주 지수)는 2월 고점까지 7%, 소형 금광주 지수 GDXJ는 16% 상승해야 회복 가능하다고 봤다. 금광주는 금 가격 상승 시 레버리지 효과가 크며 소형주는 더 공격적이다. 개별 종목보다 펀드 분산을 권했고, 자사 펀드 EPGFX(매니저 Adrian Day) 홍보가 포함됐다. 달러: 달러 인덱스는 2008년 저점 약 70 수준을 깨고 신저점을 갈 것으로 예상했다. 시기는 트럼프 1기 내일 수 있다고 봤고, 위기는 국채 시장과 연준에서 시작되는 통화위기 형태일 것이라 주장했다. 연준의 금리 인상은 되돌려지고 QE 재개가 예상된다. 리스크: 금광주는 금 가격 하락 시 더 크게 하락하며, 소형 금광주는 고위험이다. 무역적자는 단기적으로 이익이나 장기적으로 자산 매각·부채 증가로 미국인 생활수준 하락을 초래한다고 경고했다. 출연자 전망 요약: 시프는 금·금광주 강세, 다우 하락, 달러 장기 약세를 일관되게 주장했다.
다듬은 글
oh my pleasure thanks for having me out yeah well hey Peter um the biggest news story of the day right now is what's going on in Syria and North Korea you know you had predicted in your books and many many times in your commentary that war would would definitely be in the cards here just as a matter of necessity because of what's going on to cover up the you know the disastrous economy and what's really going on in the fundamentals do you think World War three is on the horizon well I don't know about World War three although certainly could happen at some point but I think the fact that Donald Trump is already you know dropping bombs on Syria within the first hundred days of being president shows that anybody who believes that Donald Trump was going to usher in an era of a new non interventionist foreign policy I better do some rethinking because he seems to has fallen into law and very quickly with the patterns established by traditional Republicans and Democrats you know the drop bombs first and you know ask questions later and even it's even possible that the Trump administration decided to do this to take some of the political heat off Trump and if you kind of rally the country around this new war effort you know whatever you know we start dropping bombs on somebody nobody wants to be critical because nobody wants to be accused of not being a patriot so everybody kind of rallies around the commander-in-chief whenever there's some kind of military intervention and in fact Donald Trump has already drawn a lot of praise from his critics because now he's acting presidential because he's bothering people are you surprised how the media has acted I mean first of all they've been in a stereo for him for the last six months maybe maybe last year and a half but men he started dropping bombs on Syria and you've got I forgot what that CNN guy the who's telling this is the first date trust when President they're going crazy they love it CNN loves that because it's good ratings you know bombs I mean CNN was built on the Gulf War I mean that's where CMN you know basically came into you know to be what it is today I mean it was out before the Gulf War but that's what it really rose to prominence was that you know 24-hour coverage of what was going on in you know in Kuwait and Iraq and so yeah they love this stuff but you know Donald Trump should already be disappointing a lot of people who thought we were gonna get changed we're gonna make America great again you know with we didn't repeal Obamacare that's here to stay major tax reform is dead you know we're dropping bombs I mean it's the same old same old right a big government figure deficits more cheap money more you know to keep the air in the bubble we're headed for a major major crisis Peter with the debt ceiling we maxed out on them on March 15th I haven't even seen it play out in the media at all do you think that everyone kind of assumes that it's gonna be easy to extend it much like repeal and replace Obamacare was supposed to be with a Republican Congress well I think it'll be much easier to get the debt limit raised because I'm sure the group of the president will be able to get a Democrat support for more day so it might be there might be some conservative opposition to it but it'll be plenty of Democrats that will join on with most Republicans so I don't think you know the crisis is not the debt ceiling the crisis is the debt I mean if the ceiling were just permanent that would help mitigate the crisis but no I mean they keep raising the ceiling every time we hit it and so the debt gets bigger and bigger and bigger and the only thing that's gonna bring it back down is going to be a currency crisis which you know is in our future looking at the Fed hikes gold has done very well from hike - hike it just keeps going up and it looks like we're gonna have another hike and gold's gold rally today well I don't know about another high we'll see but Gold's up now 10% so far in 2017 and you know the Dow Jones is only up 4% this year you know the Dow gets all the headlines but gold is getting all the performance and you know I think the Dow is going to finish the year negative I think that we're gonna have a pretty weak second half as a lot of the Trump mania catches up to reality because we had this huge run up in the stock market based on the higher GDP growth that we were going to get from repealing Obamacare and reforming the tax code and since those things are not going to happen we're not gonna get the strong economic growth or gonna get the boosted corporate earnings in fact you know a first quarter GDP the estimate now from the Atlanta Fed is just point six percent which would be the weakest quarter in many years if that were the case and in fact the Atlanta Fed was projecting three point four percent GDP growth or q1 as late as February first so we've had a rapid interior Asian in the economic growth outlook there is no fiscal help on the horizon so this stock market rally should fizzle and the so should the rally that we had in the dollar and that would be very bullish for gold and in fact old stocks still have a long way to go you know it was just looking even though the gold was at a new high for the year the GDX would have to rise seven percent to get back to its February high and the GD XJ the junior gold-mining stock index would have to rise sixteen percent per year just to get back to where it was in February even though the price of gold today is higher than it was back then so we had a very very big correction in the gold stocks even though we've had no correction really in the bites bolt because it's on the Hawks that's interesting cuz it's almost like a UH I don't wanna say hidden bull market but it's a bull market that many people aren't fully embracing and it could be because of the bear market that we had especially in the shares over the last five years up until about late 2015 is that typically normal in an early stage of a bull market whether it's the shares or physical gold you're talking about because a lot of people haven't fully embraced it yet and they actually fill this little correction feels like they're back in 2014 again but really things are very very positive right yeah well you know bull markets climb a wall of worry and that is exactly what's happening although with gold it's kind of the opposite in that people who buy gold are worried about this but people are buying gold because they see problems on the horizon and so in a is gold bull market what's actually happening is people are optimistic and so they're not bible right a lot of the gold buyers are trunk voters right most people who voted for Hillary Clinton probably don't buy gold and most people don't like gold at all but to the extent that people are buying gold they're much more likely to be Republicans and you know have been Trump supporters and so these individuals are as optimistic as they've been in a long time and you have to go for the election of Ronald Reagan and really defined this much optimism on the part of Republican voters and you know so they're not my goal you know people don't buy gold when they think everything is great if they think Trump is gonna make America great again and it fixes all the problems in the economy and the stock markets get a blue moon then why do you want to own gold so you have all of these enthusiastic Trump voters - not buying gold because they're optimistic yet the price of oil keeps rising rising rising and they're missing out I think I what is going to be an enormous gain it's going to be a while before some of these Trump voters have to face reality Peter Peter has to when you invest in gold do you completely separate the the aspect of gold and then the mining shares because the mining shares I mean you could have the major companies or you could have the junior mining companies which are extremely speculative do you even consider a junior mining share or a barrack for example a large cap as part of your gold portfolio or do you keep your physical precious metals separate from the sides that owned stocks now I mean I all would get it as exposure to gold I mean the the least risky way to own it is you know just own gold and that's kind of like your liquidity that's you know like money in the bank except I think it's better because money in the bank a the bank could fail and be the money is definitely gonna fail so I much rather have a bold and you know a great place to store your gold at least to a portion of it is that gold money which is the company that I'm dealing with where you know you actually are able to monetize your bold because the gold that you store in a vault through both money can be used in commerce can be used in e-commerce you can buy things with it you know you can spend it in like cash except that doesn't lose value between the time we deposited the time you spend it and of course you can even earn it if you have a business you can start accepting payments in gold and you can start accumulating gold and earning gold instead of instead of currency but as far as gold stocks they're more aggressive I mean obviously a company like a Derek gold or Newmont you speak coal companies they're going to go off if the price of gold goes up because they have the gold and as the prices go up the impact on their profits is rather dramatic so you get a 20% increase in the price of gold that does a lot more than increase the profits of a bollock 20 percent it could increase the profits were both copied by 100 percent so if your top is double then you know almost being equal the price list options also you get a tremendous amount of leverage to the price of gold well you own these gold mining companies without having to borrow any money because you know the other way to get the leveraging gold is to you know Barham land by people do that in future contracts or they use option so I think gold stocks are better way to lever to the price of gold than just going into debt and then you mentioned these junior - I mean those things potentially have the most leverage of all of course they have the most risk if the price of gold doesn't rise but if you get a significant increase in the price of all you know these things can go up you know 10 times 20 times I mean if you buy the right one but of course you know you want to diversify when you're buying the exploration companies doing your mind companies the key is to have a portfolio don't just put all your eggs in one basket and hope that you found the right one and you got to spread it around and I like funds you know do that I mean we have a fun - you're Pacific Capital Gold fun EPG GFX is a symbol for my whole fund so I think you know we have a lot of junior miners in our fund I think when you're trying to buy the juniors it's just best to buy a fund rather than trying to pick the individual winners yourself you know you want to diversify your holdings don't just put all your eggs in one basket and hope that you chose the right basket so just take a fun you know my fun do your Pacific Gold fun EP GFX is managed by a jury day you know Adrian's been managing in this space for over 30 years this operating and in the gold mining sectors you know with a lot of work in the junior miners and so rather than doing the work yourself just hire a jury a day to do it for you it's got a great track record that's why I hired him to manage my fun even I don't necessarily trust myself in this space it's a very very difficult space to understand there are so many ways to screw up you know there's so many land mines right literally masquerading as goldmine so you need a guy like Adrian who really you know eats and sleeps and lives this sector and who's been doing it exclusively to be your guy you know and our fun I think we were the number one goal last can technically there was one gold fund that beat us but the guy that beat us has to funds last year and one was like horrible so if you average is to funds we kicked his body so you know we did great and I saw and I think Adrienne is going to do fantastic that's why I hired him to manage my fund and so you know you can hire yourself why you have to do is buy the fine you know EP GFX is the symbol check it out read the prospectus understand the risks of course you know investing the gold stocks is risky if the price of gold goes down the price of gold stocks will go down even more so make sure you understand that before you invest sure the symbol EP GFX will definitely have that up for everybody and certainly have an Adrian day manage your gold stock portfolio is a much better idea than just buying a random junior mining stock because I can tell you just being in the industry that it's a my goodness I would say the scans that way the good guys by nine to ten and this is where to index investing is not the way to go up and this is where doing your homework and being smart can add tremendous value over time right it's you know just having a guy understand the companies and being able to avoid the landmine it's right and just be in the gold mines it's well worth a small management fee that you're paying to have you know somebody really you know separating the you know the wheat from the chaff Peter before we close out I wanted to ask you about the US dollar we've seen China and Russia make big moves and this is not new this has been going on for a long time what is the state of the US currency is it still going to be the reserve currency ten years from now well who knows I mean ten years from now maybe not we'll see you know I if he asked me that question ten years ago you know I wouldn't have said you know I'm I would have kind of the same answer and it still is but you know where the dollar is living on borrowed time literally and so we just don't know you know it's like a it's like a mom with a fuse but we just don't really know how long the fuses you know but the dollar I think it's in a major bubble I think it is in the process of popping out I think once it completes this top is going down and I think it's gonna take out the lows from 2008 in 2008 the dollar index got down to 70 approximately that was a record low prior to that the record low on the dollar index was about 80 and so I think we're going to take out the low seventy I don't think it'll happen in the first term of trauma I mean assuming there is a second term which is of stress it may not be it may only be may only have one term and during that term I think the dollar is going to hit a new record low in the dollar index I think the US economy is going into recession I think the Fed is going to take back the minimal rate hikes I think we're gonna go back to QE I think the balance sheets going to explode I think we had a lot of other problems that are gonna blow up you know early in the Trump presidency and that's we drive the dollar down the difference between this dollar so off and the last one is I don't think it's gonna be Saved by the Bell I think it's gonna go down to the counter because the last time would save the dollar was the financial crisis and that crisis resulted in everybody buying the dollar but I think the next crisis is not going to be the same type of crisis that we had an OE I think the dollar is going to be the crisis I don't think it's going to be a you know a bread-and-butter financial crisis this is gonna be a currency crisis so it's going to be the US government it's not going to be the mortgage market that's blowing up it's going to be the Treasury bond market that's blowing up it's gonna be the Federal Reserve that's blowing up and this is going to be a major major negative from the dollar now to positive Peter do you think Trump when he you know was with US Treasury secretary and certainly in the past few months could have quite possibly learned that you know all these things he said on the campaign trail about calling China a currency manipulator or going toe-to-toe and having some sort of trade war with some of these countries do you think he could have learned that hey Saudi Arabia is helping keeping the US dollar propped up China's help in keeping the USSR propped up that perhaps maybe they're allowed to do some of these things because it's us simply reimbursing them for helping us keep our currency propped up well I don't know what Trump's advisors understand I mean we we have a huge imbalance to pray to have a huge deficit that is a major problem in the long run in the short run it is a panacea in the short run we benefit the trade deficit because we get to consume more than we produce we get to live beyond our means the trade-off is that we're selling all our assets we're going into debt in order to indulge our present foreigners give us the products that they made and we give them stocks we give them real estate we give them bonds but now they have assets we have to pay interest we have to pay dividends we have to pay rent tax so Americans are getting poorer as we you know run these data sets and our trading partners are getting richer and so in the end these chickens are coming home to roost and yes the sooner that we can address the problem the better because we stop digging ourselves deeper into the hole but as soon as we address the problems that sooner we have to come to terms a reality and we have to see a very very big drop in our standard of living and you know Americans are not gonna like that you know I mean nobody likes that and and politicians don't want to have a Trump promised everything was going to be great right it sees as president we we win so much.we be tired of losing well you know well I mean tired of winning we'd want to lose right because we be so born winning all the time so Trump doesn't want to preside over a major decline in our standard of living but ultimately that has to happen because this is the consequence of all the excess consumption that went on before he was president you know we've we've sacrificed our future to indulge our past and weird that we've now the future is now the present we're here you know when it's time to pay the piper all right Peter Schiff of euro pacific capital peter always great to have you on the show thank you so much for your time all right thank you don't forget listen to my podcasts at ship radio calm or
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