저자: LarryFink · 외국인
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결론: 래리 핑크는 글로벌 투자자들이 주식에 과소투자(underinvested)되어 있으며 랠리 속 상승 리스크(멜트업)가 있다고 봄. 시장 환경: 2018년 글로벌 주식 -13%였던 반면 2019년 1분기 약 11% 반등. 블랙록 운용자산 약 6.5조 달러, 분기 중 약 525억 달러(순유입 650억 달러) 증가. 자금 흐름: 채권(고정수익)에 800억 달러 유입, 주식 펀드에서는 업계 전체 대규모 자금 유출. 현금 보유액은 사상 최대 수준이며 개인·기관 모두 주식에서 유출이 지속됨. 투자 전망: 주식 과소투자 근거로 현금 과잉과 주식 유출을 제시. 중앙은행(특히 유럽·일본)의 완화 기조와 양질 자산 부족을 언급하며 대체투자·인프라 수요가 강하다고 설명. 1~3개월 방향 수치 목표는 제시하지 않음. 리스크: 과거 여러 차례 약세 또는 중립 입장을 보였던 점을 언급하며 현 상황의 불확실성을 인정. 1분기 급등에 투자자 반응이 제한적이라는 지적도 있음. 자산별 발언: 특정 개별 종목 및 지수에 대한 단기 방향 예측은 없음. 글로벌 주식 전반에 대한 긍정적 견해만 확인됨.
다듬은 글
the stock didn't look like it was moving in the pre-market on that news but it does seem like it it was in line given given the headwinds of 2018 2019 is a better situation well you're right Andrew last year global equities were down 13 percent global equities came back about 11 percent throughout the quarter and so the absolutely the circumstances are quite different we grew our total acid base by nine percent so we grew over 525 billion dollars in assets 65 billion was organic the rest of it was market movement and so we're back over six and a half trillion but the mix of AUM was quite extraordinary we had 80 billion of inflows in fixed income so you saw many people putting money to work in fixed income but global equities you saw as an industry huge outflows so the trends have not really changed but you know for us we had as I said 65 billion in net inflows we saw extraordinary new winds in our technology business we had a record quarter of raising six billion dollars of illiquid alternatives in the quarter and so we saw money being put to work but I would not say investors were just jumping in all in and the marketplace with the market rally as large as it is I would clearly tell you at this moment them the most investors are exposed by unbe none der invested at this time you think they're under okay so two questions one is to the sense you're pulling new money and where are you pulling the new money in from I would say it's it's well you know the one thing I could talk about with a little more public is RI shares franchise where we had 32 billion of inflows and it was pretty pretty concentrated in Europe and the US about 17 billion in the US and and 15 billion in Europe very little out of Asia and then in the first quarter so but in in our institutional business we saw from Asia we saw it from the middle so we're seeing some money to be put to work money from cash to fixed income we're not seeing money being put to work rushing into equities what are the trends that you're seeing in terms of flows into the core iShares versus the mutual funds to give us an idea of of your fees and some pressure on on fees well we're the quarter are our fees actually went up 2/10 of the basis points so we went from 18 average basic points to eighteen point two so overall I'm talking about the whole franchise the whole franchise and some of that is because we're now winning more and more in in the alt space so that that's certainly helping and and we did see some a reversal 2018 in high-yield in the iShares business who was a pretty good mix of both core which uses which of their lower fee versus the non core which is more institutional and more for liquid market where we have options associated with some of those ETFs and so we have not seen any real pressure in terms of a huge shift into only core so we're seeing a pretty good mix durable core and non-core you just commented before you answered that question that that you believe people were under invested globally globally yeah but make the case why you think that and and are you saying that in terms of the equity market are you saying that just broadly broadly and you know and some people get a good call that is a market call yes is that's what you're asking for yet I think we have a risk of a melt up not a melt down here despite where the markets are in equities we have not seen money being put to work we have record amounts of money in cash we still see outflows and retail in equities we still see outflows institutional I'm talking about in industry now and so and when we have something that's a unique or special whether it's in our infrastructure business or something else the demand for that at these assets are extraordinary so and in fact we have clients almost arguing with us they want a bigger allocation but explain why you're bullish because you've come on this program many times when you have been bearish or at least lukewarm where things are and it's just because I think we're struggling in this time especially now essential banks who are if anything more dovish than ever they're not changing their behaviors related to QE anymore there is a shortage of good assets we've had a couple people in recent week the Katie Stockton help we had someone else recently that said that this huge move from January to March has been met with very little excitement right by investors and you're just you've got the you know you would know with yeah you know trillions of dollars under management and you're not seeing the the it's all in previous tops you've probably seen a lot more excitement that man right well we're seeing huge excitement in fixed income so many know but right well many people thought we were gonna be in a period of rising rates right we were not and we saw huge under investment and people had a rush in to invest in fixed income we have not seen that in equities that's what I'm trying to say we have not seen what I would say that that I missed that and I'm running in you
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